Effects of fluctuating daily surface fluxes on the time-mean oceanic circulation

The effect of fluctuating daily surface fluxes on the time-mean oceanic circulation is studied using an empirical flux model. The model produces fluctuating fluxes resulting from atmospheric variability and includes oceanic feedbacks on the fluxes. Numerical experiments were carried out by driving an ocean general circulation model with three different versions of the empirical model. It is found that fluctuating daily fluxes lead to an increase in the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) of the Atlantic of about 1 Sv and a decrease in the Antarctic circumpolar current (ACC) of about 32 Sv. The changes are approximately 7% of the MOC and 16% of the ACC obtained without fluctuating daily fluxes. The fluctuating fluxes change the intensity and the depth of vertical mixing. This, in turn, changes the density field and thus the circulation. Fluctuating buoyancy fluxes change the vertical mixing in a non-linear way: they tend to increase the convective mixing in mostly stable regions and to decrease the convective mixing in mostly unstable regions. The ACC changes are related to the enhanced mixing in the subtropical and the mid-latitude Southern Ocean and reduced mixing in the high-latitude Southern Ocean. The enhanced mixing is related to an increase in the frequency and the depth of convective events. As these events bring more dense water downward, the mixing changes lead to a reduction in meridional gradient of the depth-integrated density in the Southern Ocean and hence the strength of the ACC. The MOC changes are related to more subtle density changes. It is found that the vertical mixing in a latitudinal strip in the northern North Atlantic is more strongly enhanced due to fluctuating fluxes than the mixing in a latitudinal strip in the South Atlantic. This leads to an increase in the density difference between the two strips, which can be responsible for the increase in the Atlantic MOC.     

The effect of a regional increase in ocean surface roughness on the tropospheric circulation: a GCM experiment

The sensitivity of the atmospheric circulation to an increase in ocean surface roughness in the Southern Hemisphere storm track is investigated in a paired general circulation model experiment. Such a change in sea roughness could be induced by ocean waves generated by storms. Two extended permanent-July runs are made. One with standard sea surface roughness, the other with ten times as a large surface roughness over open sea poleward of 40° S. The regional increase in ocean surface roughness significantly modifies the tropospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere. The strongest effect is the reduction of tropospheric winds (by 2 m/s or 10%) above the area with increased roughness. The poleward eddy momentum flux is reduced in the upper troposphere and the meridional eddy sensible heat flux is reduced in the lower troposphere. Zonal mean and eddy kinetic energy are consistently reduced.     

A review of ENSO prediction studies

A hierarchy of ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation) prediction schemes has been developed which includes statistical schemes and physical models. The statistical models are, in general, based on advanced statistical techniques and can be classified into models which use either low-frequency variations in the atmosphere (sea level pressure or surface wind) or upper ocean heat content as predictors. The physical models consist of coupled ocean-atmosphere models of varying degrees of complexity, ranging from simplified coupled models of the shallow water-type to coupled general circulation models. All models, statistical and physical, perform considerably better than the persistence forecast on predicting typical indices of ENSO on lead times of 6 to 12 months. The most successful prediction schemes, the fully physical coupled ocean-atmosphere models, show significant prediction abilities at lead times exceeding one year period. We therefore conclude that ENSO is predictable at least one year in advance. However, all of this applies to gross indices of ENSO such as the Southern Oscillation Index. Despite the demonstrated predictability, little is known about the predictability of specific features known to be associated with ENSO (e.g. Indian Monsoon rainfall, Southern African drought, or even off-equatorial sea surface temperature). Nor has the relative importance for prediction of different regional anomalies or different physical processes yet been established. A seasonal dependence in predictability is well established, but the processes responsible for it are not fully understood.     

Dependence of velocity variance on sampling time

The dependence of the lateral and vertical velocity variances on sampling time have been investigated, based on recent spectral models. The results have been compared with observations at Vandenberg Air Force Base and at the Boulder Atmospheric Observatory.For sampling times of l s to 1 hr, the variation of lateral variances is much smaller in neutral than in unstable conditions. In a stable atmosphere, the variances show a stronger increase with sampling time than predicted by the model. The vertical velocity variances do not increase significantly between 1 and 60 min. Again in stable conditions, the measurements show a more pronounced increase of variances as compared to the calculations, indicating significant energy between periods of a few to 20 min. This additional energy may be ascribed to gravity waves.The models cannot be applied in cases with trends in the data. The model tends to underestimate the dependence of variances on sampling time in cases when systems, such as longitudinal vortices or gravity waves exist.This work was undertaken while the authors were associated with the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California.Deceased 28 February 1988     

Temporal variability of contemporary floodplain sedimentation in the Rhine–Meuse delta,The Netherlands

It is often believed that extreme but infrequent events are most important in the development of landforms. When evaluating the overall effect of large floods on floodplain sedimentation, quantitative measurements of both high- and low-magnitude events should be considered. To analyse the role of flood magnitude on floodplain sedimentation, we measured overbank sedimentation during floods of different magnitude and duration. The measurements were carried out on two embanked floodplain sections along the rivers Rhine and Meuse in The Netherlands, using sediment traps made of artificial grass. The results showed an increase in total sediment accumulation with flood magnitude, mainly caused by enhanced accumulation of sand. At low floodplain sections the increase in sediment deposition was smaller than expected from the strong increase in suspended sediment transport in the river. Spatial variability in sediment accumulation was found to depend both on flood magnitude and duration. Deposition of sand on natural levees mainly takes place during high-magnitude floods, whilst low floods and slowly receding floods are important for the deposition of silt and clay in low-lying areas, at greater distance from the main channel. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The violent past of Cygnus X-2

Cygnus X-2 appears to be the descendant of an intermediate-mass X-ray binary (IMXB). Using Mazzitelli's stellar code we compute detailed evolutionary sequences for the system and find that its prehistory is sensitive to stellar input parameters, in particular the amount of core overshooting during the main-sequence phase. With standard assumptions for convective overshooting a case B mass transfer starting with a 3.5-M_⊙ donor star is the most likely evolutionary solution for Cygnus X-2. This makes the currently observed state rather short-lived, of order 3 Myr, and requires a formation rate > 10⁻⁷–10⁻⁶ yr⁻¹ of such systems in the Galaxy. Our calculations show that neutron star IMXBs with initially more massive donors (≳4 M_⊙) encounter a delayed dynamical instability; they are unlikely to survive this rapid mass transfer phase. We determine limits for the age and initial parameters of Cygnus X-2 and calculate possible dynamical orbits of the system in a realistic Galactic potential, given its observed radial velocity. We find trajectories which are consistent with a progenitor binary on a circular orbit in the Galactic plane inside the solar circle that received a kick velocity ≤200 km s⁻¹ at the birth of the neutron star. The simulations suggest that about 7 per cent of IMXBs receiving an arbitrary kick velocity from a standard kick velocity spectrum would end up in an orbit similar to Cygnus X-2, while about 10 per cent of them reach yet larger Galactocentric distances.     

中国近500年来的气候模拟与重建资料对比

介绍了利用全球海气耦合气候模式ECHO G进行的小冰期以来的长时间积分气候模拟试验,并与中国区域温度重建资料作对比。共做了2个模拟试验：控制试验和真实强迫试验。首先将模拟结果与器测资料作对比,验证该模式模拟中国气候的能力;然后将模拟结果与中国10个区域重建的500年温度序列进行比较分析。均值、方差及EOF分析表明,对于1550年至今的时段,除了东北、新疆、西南地区外,其它地区模拟与重建序列的相关性尚好,相关的置信度超过90％;而对于1760年以来的时期,除了华南、西北、西南地区外,其它地区二者较为一致,相关的置信度均超过90％,表明气候模式ECHO G能捕捉到中国大部分地区温度的趋势及低频变化特征,也说明上述强迫条件是近500年来气候变化的主要控制因子。然而模拟的温度距平的空间差异性比重建资料的小,对于年代际、年际等短时间尺度的温度变化模拟与重建结果的吻合度较差。误差来自于重建和模拟两个方面。在重建资料方面,需要提高代用资料的代表性、精确性和可靠性;在模拟方面,应提高各强迫条件序列的精确性,同时应引入更多的强迫因子,如下垫面植被及工业气溶胶等。这样从两方面努力,才能更深入地刻划和认识中国历史气候演变及其成因机制问题。