华北平原禹城市耕地变化与驱动力分析(英文)

Taking Yucheng, a typical agricultural county in Shandong Province as a case, this study applied Logistic regression models to spatially identify factors affecting farmland changes. Using two phases of high resolution imageries in 2001 and 2009, the study obtained the land use and farmland change data in 2001-2009. It was found that the farmland was reduced by 5.14% in the period, mainly due to the farmland conversion to forest land and built-up land, although part of forest land and unused land was converted to farmland. The results of Logistic regressions indicated that location, population growth and farmer income were main factors affecting the farmland conversion, while soil types and pro-curvature were main natural factors controlling the distribution of farmland changes. Regional differences and temporal-spatial variables of farmland changes affected fitting capability of the Logistic re-gression models. The ROC fitting test indicated that the Logistic regression models gave a good explanation of the regional land-use changes. Logistic regression analysis is a good tool to identify major factors affecting land use change by quantifying the contribution of each factor.     

The role of massive AGB stars in the early solar system composition

Abstract— We demonstrate that a massive asymptotic giant branch (AGB) star is a good candidate as the main source of short‐lived radionuclides in the early solar system. Recent identification of massive (4–8 M⊙) AGB stars in the galaxy, which are both lithium‐ and rubidium‐rich, demonstrates that these stars experience proton captures at the base of the convective envelope (hot bottom burning), together with high‐neutron density nucleosynthesis with ²²Ne as a neutron source in the He shell and efficient dredge‐up of the processed material. A model of a 6.5 M⊙ star of solar metallicity can simultaneously match the abundances of ²⁶Al, ⁴¹Ca, ⁶⁰Fe, and ¹⁰⁷Pd inferred to have been present in the solar nebula by using a dilution factor of 1 part of AGB material per 300 parts of original solar nebula material, and taking into account a time interval between injection of the short‐lived nuclides and consolidation of the first meteorites equal to 0.53 Myr. Such a polluting source does not overproduce ⁵³Mn, as supernova models do, and only marginally affects isotopic ratios of stable elements. It is usually argued that it is unlikely that the short‐lived radionuclides in the early solar system came from an AGB star because these stars are rarely found in star forming regions, however, we think that further interdisciplinary studies are needed to address the fundamental problem of the birth of our solar system.     

Neo-Atlantis: The Netherlands under a 5-m sea level rise

What could happen to the Netherlands if, in 2030, the sea level starts to rise and eventually, after 100 years, a sea level of 5 m above current level would be reached? This question is addressed by studying literature, by interviewing experts in widely differing fields, and by holding an expert workshop on this question. Although most experts believe that geomorphology and current engineering skills would enable the country to largely maintain its territorial integrity, there are reasons to assume that this is not likely to happen. Social processes that precede important political decisions – such as the growth of the belief in the reality of sea level rise and the framing of such decisions in a proper political context (policy window) – evolve slowly. A flood disaster would speed up the decision-making process. The shared opinion of the experts surveyed is that eventually part of the Netherlands would be abandoned.     

天津武清能见度特征分析

利用2006年8～9月的野外观测资料,分析了天津武清区晴天能见度的变化特征,并分析了能见度与细粒子（PM2．5）、大气污染物和大气相对湿度（RH）的相关性。结果表明：观测期内大气平均能见度为6．3km,低于4km的时间段占50％;日变化表现为日出前（北京时间5时）能见度最低,约为2．6km,下午15时最高,约为11．1km;不同大气相对湿度下能见度与大气中细颗粒物浓度相关性不同;污染气体浓度与能见度呈反相关关系,φ（SO2）、φ（NO2）、φ（NO）、φ（NH3）和φ（CO）越高,能见度越低。     

气象影视设备视频接口的浅析与运用

在气象影视制作中,通过分析影视设备中各种类型的视频接口的特点以及使用方法,找到合理利用各类接口,减小视频传输损耗,最终达到优化视频图像输出的最佳效果途径。     

超级单体引发的龙卷天气过程分析

利用营口市多普勒天气雷达资料,对2005年8月10日16时10-20分左右营口市东南部六个乡出现的龙卷天气过程进行了简要分析,该龙卷发生前的主要天气形势是:一个东移的东北低涡引导高空槽,沿高空等高线冷干气流与低空的暖湿气流产生对流不稳定层结,超低空南支急流与低空西南风急流以及高空西北风产生的较大垂直风切变,有利于龙卷天气的产生.产生该龙卷的对流系统是由渤海湾生成的片状层状云和积状云混合降水回波.自东向偏北方向移动,15:50以后低层反射率因子的强降水回波移入大连北部与营口南部临近区域,在层状云降水中含有一些零散的和有组织的对流降水回波,主体为一个近似团状的对流系统,而龙卷产生自该系统南端的一个超级单体.最初的中气旋形成于8月10日15:56,相应对流单体的反射率因子还没有呈现出超级单体的特征,随后中气旋迅速发展加强,在16:02-16:08反射率因子形态呈现出经典超级单体的特征:明显的低层入流缺口,入流缺口位于超级单体移动方向(偏东南方向)的右侧,低层的弱回波区和中高层的回波悬垂结构,最大反射率因子超过56 dRz.在龙卷产生前几分钟和龙卷进行过程中,中气旋保持较强,而后迅速减弱,低层入流缺口渐渐消失.在龙卷进行过程中,相应45 dBz超级单体的反射率因子区局限在6 km以下,此系统为低质心的对流系统,产生的天气是龙卷,伴随有大风短时强降水,与冰雹的高质心对流系统有明显区别.同时也初步探讨了引发此次龙卷的生成机制.     

Diurnal and Seasonal Trends in Convective Mixed-Layer Heights Estimated from Two Years of Continuous Ceilometer Observations in Vancouver,BC

Twenty-six months of continuous ceilometer data are used to estimate the convective mixed-layer height for 710 days by identifying backscatter gradients associated with the entrainment zone. To accomplish this, a semi-automatic procedure is developed that removes all non-applicable data before applying a mixed-layer height algorithm to the backscatter profiles. Two different algorithms for estimating the mixed-layer height are assessed: the minimum-gradient method and the ideal-profile method. The latter of these two algorithms is found to be more robust. Comparisons of mixed-layer height values estimated from the ceilometer agree with previous observations with slightly higher estimates in the mornings and evenings. For clear days with no cumulus cloud formation, the seasonal cycle in mixed-layer heights peaks in late June to early July. Daily maximum values are suppressed by the site’s coastal location, remaining below 800 m for all but a few days. The mean daily maximum mixed-layer height increases by 384 m for days with boundary-layer clouds. The mean summer diurnal trend is found not to differ greatly from that in spring on clear days, while days with boundary-layer clouds have higher spring values than in summer. Net surface heat flux and synoptic stability likely have the largest influence on the mixed-layer heights. Additionally, large intra-monthly variability suggests a strong influence from regional dynamics.     

Magmatic fluids of Tatun volcanic group,Taiwan

Two distinctive magmatic fluids were recognized in the Tatun volcanic group (TVG), Taiwan. One is a relatively reduced fluid represented by the fumarolic gases at Hsiao-you-ken (HYK) geothermal field. Another is an oxidized fluid containing high concentrations of HCl represented by the fumarolic gases at Da-you-ken (DYK). An intermediate gas was recognized at Gung-tze-ping (GTP) and She-hung-ping (SHP). The fumarolic gases at HYK and GTP possess the features of so-called primary steam generated on mixing of magmatic gas and meteoric groundwater. The fumarolic gases at DYK are a simple mixture between magmatic gas and water vapor of meteoric origin. The CO₂/H₂O molar ratio of the magmatic component in the fumarolic gases at DYK was estimated to be 0.018, meanwhile it was estimated to be 0.027 for the fumarolic gases at HYK and GTP, suggesting the magma beneath DYK is depleted in volatiles relative to the magma beneath HYK and GTP. The estimated CO₂/H₂O ratio for the magmatic component is comparable to that of some active volcanoes in Japan, suggesting the enrichment of volatiles in the magmas beneath TVG.     

Dating bedrock gorge incision in the French Western Alps (Ecrins-Pelvoux massif) using cosmogenic 10Be

We report in-situ produced ¹⁰Be data from the Gorge du Diable (French Western Alps) to date and quantify bedrock gorge incision into a glacial hanging valley. We sampled gorge sidewalls and the active channel bed to derive both long-term and present-day incision rates. ¹⁰Be ages of sidewall profiles reveal rapid incision through the late Holocene (ca 5 ka) at rates ranging from 6.5 to 13 mm yr⁻¹. Present-day incision rates are significantly lower and vary from 0.5 to 3 mm yr⁻¹ within the gorge. Our data imply either delayed initiation of gorge incision after final ice retreat from internal Alpine valleys at ca 12 ka, or post-glacial surface reburial of the gorge. Our results suggest that fluvial incision rates >1 cm yr⁻¹ into crystalline bedrock may be encountered in transient landscape features induced by glacial-interglacial transitions.