Acceptance criteria for urban dispersion model evaluation

The authors suggested acceptance criteria for rural dispersion models’ performance measures in this journal in 2004. The current paper suggests modified values of acceptance criteria for urban applications and tests them with tracer data from four urban field experiments. For the arc-maximum concentrations, the fractional bias should have a magnitude <0.67 (i.e., the relative mean bias is less than a factor of 2); the normalized mean-square error should be <6 (i.e., the random scatter is less than about 2.4 times the mean); and the fraction of predictions that are within a factor of two of the observations (FAC2) should be >0.3. For all data paired in space, for which a threshold concentration must always be defined, the normalized absolute difference should be <0.50, when the threshold is three times the instrument’s limit of quantification (LOQ). An overall criterion is then applied that the total set of acceptance criteria should be satisfied in at least half of the field experiments. These acceptance criteria are applied to evaluations of the US Department of Defense’s Joint Effects Model (JEM) with tracer data from US urban field experiments in Salt Lake City (U2000), Oklahoma City (JU2003), and Manhattan (MSG05 and MID05). JEM includes the SCIPUFF dispersion model with the urban canopy option and the urban dispersion model (UDM) option. In each set of evaluations, three or four likely options are tested for meteorological inputs (e.g., a local building top wind speed, the closest National Weather Service airport observations, or outputs from numerical weather prediction models). It is found that, due to large natural variability in the urban data, there is not a large difference between the performance measures for the two model options and the three or four meteorological input options. The more detailed UDM and the state-of-the-art numerical weather models do provide a slight improvement over the other options. The proposed urban dispersion model acceptance criteria are satisfied at over half of the field experiments.     

Advanced techniques in site characterization and mining hazard detection for the underground coal industry

Today's highly productive coal mining systems represent large capital investments. Careful geotechnical planning and design are essential to protect these systems and to help ensure their overall success. Too often, however, the ability of the mine operator to adequately characterize the geotechnical environment and keep up with changing geologic conditions lags the advance rate of the mining equipment. Seismic tomographic imaging, based on the same principles as medical Computer-Aided-Tomography (CAT) Scans, offers the ability to identify changing geologic conditions, loading patterns, and the location of nearby abandoned mine workings. Although seismic tomography has been used for many years in the oil industry, until recently its practicality in the mining industry has been limited because the processes involved interfered with mining productivity and were labor-intensive in terms of data collection and interpretation. New advancements in signal processing have greatly enhanced the speed, resolution, and range of applications of tomographic imaging in underground coal mine settings.Many tomography applications in the mining industry use seismic velocity and/or attenuation tomography within a volume enclosed by the seismic source and receiver array. Although results obtained using this geometry work well in many situations, recent developments in reflection tomography show promise in eliminating the requirement that the target volume be surrounded by sources/receivers. For example, in-seam seismic reflection tomography may now be used to image structures and/or old workings from one general location in the mine (e.g., face areas of mains and panel developments) well ahead of planned developments—largely eliminating the need to probe-hole drill on regular intervals. These new developments have greatly expanded the ability of the mine operator to cost-effectively characterize previously inaccessible areas of the property.This paper gives an overview of the theories and processes involved in seismic tomography applicable to coal mine settings. Recent examples are presented of tomographic imaging applied to a variety of coal mine ground control problems and old works detection in the United States and Europe. The applicability of both seismic refraction and seismic reflection tomography is discussed.     

Pullout resistance of single vertical shallow helical and plate anchors in sand

This paper presents analytical models to predict the pullout capacity and the load–displacement relationship for shallow single vertical helical and plate anchors in sand. The models were developed based on the failure mechanism deduced from laboratory testing and utilize the limit equilibrium technique. Expression was given to estimate the critical depth for a given anchor/soil conditions, which separates deep from shallow anchors. Furthermore, the radius of influence of a individual anchor on the ground surface is established, and accordingly, the spacing between anchors can be determined to avoid anchors interactions between anchors. The proposed theory compared well with the theories and the experimental data available in the literature.

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Résumé Cet article présente un model analytique pour prédire la résistance à l’arrachement et la relation charge-diplacement pour les ancrages à vis et plats verticaux superficiels ancrés dans le sable. Le model est basé sur le mécanisme de rupture déduit des essais de laboratoire et utilise la méthode d’analyse à l’équilibre limite. En outre, une expression a été proposé pour éstimer la profondeur critique pour un ancrage donné permettant d’identifier l’ancrage comme superficiel ou profond. Le rayon d’influence d’un ancrage à la surface du sable autour de l’ancrage a été établi, et par conséquent, l’espacement entre ancrages peut être déterminer pour éviter toute interaction. La théorie proposée montre une bonne concordance avec des résultats theoriques et expérimentaux rapports dans la literature.

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Petrology and geochemistry of primitive lower oceanic crust from Pito Deep: implications for the accretion of the lower crust at the Southern East Pacific Rise

A suite of samples collected from the uppermost part of the plutonic section of the oceanic crust formed at the southern East Pacific Rise and exposed at the Pito Deep has been examined. These rocks were sampled in situ by ROV and lie beneath a complete upper crustal section providing geological context. This is only the second area (after the Hess Deep) in which a substantial depth into the plutonic complex formed at the East Pacific Rise has been sampled in situ and reveals significant spatial heterogeneity in the plutonic complex. In contrast to the uppermost plutonic rocks at Hess Deep, the rocks studied here are generally primitive with olivine forsterite contents mainly between 85 and 88 and including many troctolites. The melt that the majority of the samples crystallized from was aggregated normal mid-ocean ridge basalt (MORB). Despite this high Mg# clinopyroxene is common despite model predictions that clinopyroxene should not reach the liquidus early during low-pressure crystallization of MORB. Stochastic modeling of melt crystallisation at various levels in the crust suggests that it is unlikely that a significant melt mass crystallized in the deeper crust (for example in sills) because this would lead to more evolved shallow level plutonic rocks. Similar to the upper plutonic section at Hess Deep, and in the Oman ophiolite, many samples show a steeply dipping, axis-parallel, magmatic fabric. This suggests that vertical magmatic flow is an important process in the upper part of the seismic low velocity zone beneath fast-spreading ridges. We suggest that both temporal and spatial (along-axis) variability in the magmatic and hydrothermal systems can explain the differences observed between the Hess Deep and Pito Deep plutonics. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

The exponential probability density function and concentration fluctuations in smoke plumes

Observations of 1-s average concentration fluctuations during two trials of a U.S. Army diffusion experiment are presented and compared with model predictions based on an exponential probability density function (pdf). The source is near the surface and concentration monitors are on lines about 30 to 100 m downwind of the source. The observed ratio of the standard deviation to the mean of the concentration fluctuations is about 1.3 on the mean plume axis and 4 to 5 on the mean plume edges. Plume intermittency (fraction of non-zero readings) is about 50%; on the mean plume axis and 10%; on the mean plume edges. A meandering plume model is combined with an exponential pdf assumption to produce predictions of the intermittency and the standard deviation of the concentration fluctuations that are within 20%; of the observations.     

How will climate change alter fishery governanceʔ Insights from seven international case studies

We examine the implications of climate change for fishery governance using seven international fishery case studies in low, mid and high latitudes, including eastern Australia, the western Pacific Ocean, Alaska, west coast United States, Hawaii, west coast Canada and France. Climate change adds uncertainty about fish stock productivity, migratory patterns, trophic interactions and vulnerability of fish populations to fishing pressure.     

Linking mineralogy and spectroscopy of highly aqueously altered CM and CI carbonaceous chondrites in preparation for primitive asteroid sample return

The highly hydrated, petrologic type 1 CM and CI carbonaceous chondrites likely derived from primitive, water‐rich asteroids, two of which are the targets for JAXA's Hayabusa2 and NASA's OSIRIS‐REx missions. We have collected visible and near‐infrared (VNIR) and mid infrared (MIR) reflectance spectra from well‐characterized CM1/2, CM1, and CI1 chondrites and identified trends related to their mineralogy and degree of secondary processing. The spectral slope between 0.65 and 1.05 μm decreases with increasing total phyllosilicate abundance and increasing magnetite abundance, both of which are associated with more extensive aqueous alteration. Furthermore, features at ~3 μm shift from centers near 2.80 μm in the intermediately altered CM1/2 chondrites to near 2.73 μm in the highly altered CM1 chondrites. The Christiansen features (CF) and the transparency features shift to shorter wavelengths as the phyllosilicate composition of the meteorites becomes more Mg‐rich, which occurs as aqueous alteration proceeds. Spectra also show a feature near 6 μm, which is related to the presence of phyllosilicates, but is not a reliable parameter for estimating the degree of aqueous alteration. The observed trends can be used to estimate the surface mineralogy and the degree of aqueous alteration in remote observations of asteroids. For example, (1) Ceres has a sharp feature near 2.72 μm, which is similar in both position and shape to the same feature in the spectra of the highly altered CM1 MIL 05137, suggesting abundant Mg‐rich phyllosilicates on the surface. Notably, both OSIRIS‐REx and Hayabusa2 have onboard instruments which cover the VNIR and MIR wavelength ranges, so the results presented here will help in corroborating initial results from Bennu and Ryugu.     

River channel evolution and tsunami impacts recorded in local sedimentary archives – the ‘Fiume Morto’ at Ostia Antica (Tiber River,Italy)

Ostia, the ancient port of Rome at the mouth of the river Tiber (Italy), flourished until the 2nd Century ad , although massive siltation had already caused the abandonment of its lagoonal harbour in the 1st Century bc . In search of an alternative harbour site, geomorphological and geoarchaeological research was carried out in the ‘Fiume Morto’, an abandoned Tiber meander to the immediate north of the town. To reconstruct its complex development and evaluate the suitability of the river channel as a fluvial harbour, a transect perpendicular to the former river channel's flow axis was systematically explored by a new methodological approach combining electrical resistivity tomography, direct push-electrical conductivity sensing and vibracores. Together with microfossil, mineralogical and geochemical analyses of sediment samples and 50 radiocarbon dates, in-depth stratigraphic data support a detailed reconstruction of different Tiber channel generations. Results reveal a meander development closely related to distinct ‘cut and fill’ dynamics. Inactive river channels were repeatedly filled with lagoonal sediments, abruptly followed by phases of intense incision. Yet, the overall Fiume Morto channel structure remained stable and almost in situ over centuries, showing nearly no lateral changes since the southward shift of the Tiber River mouth in the first millennium bc . In the 1st Century bc , channel conditions favoured navigation and transportation of goods with large ships. Open-water conditions, suitable for anchoring and landing activities, dominate from the 1st Century ad until 1557 ad , when the Fiume Morto meander was finally cut off and silted up within a short time. Within the fluvial deposits, sediments most likely related to tsunami inundations are preserved. These events occurred sometime before the 2nd Century bc , in the early 1st Century ad and in the 17th Century ad or later. Results are consistent with traces of tsunami influence found in Ostia's western lagoonal harbour.     

Fault imaging in sparsely sampled 3D seismic data using common‐reflection‐surface processing and attribute analysis – a study in the Upper Rhine Graben

Cost reduction in seismic reconnaissance is an issue in geothermal exploration and can principally be achieved by sparse acquisition. To address the adherent decrease in signal/noise ratio, the common‐reflection‐surface method has been proposed. We reduced the data density of an existing 3D dataset and evaluated the results of common‐reflection‐surface processing using seismic attributes. The application of the common‐reflection‐surface method leads in all cases to an improvement of the signal/noise ratio. The most distinct improvement can be seen in the low fold regions. The improvement depends strongly on the midpoint aperture, and there is a tradeoff between reflector continuity and horizontal resolution. If small scale targets are to be imaged, a small aperture size is necessary, which may be far below the Fresnel zone for a specific reflector. The substantial reduction of the data density leads in our case to an irrecoverable information loss.     

Diurnal variation of horizontal wind direction fluctuations in complex terrain at Geysers,Cal.

Horizontal diffusion in the surface layer is dependent on the standard deviation of wind direction fluctuations . Diurnal variation of this parameter in complex terrain was studied for the July 1979 Geysers, Cal., experiment using data from a network of 11 short meteorological towers in the 25 km² Anderson Creek watershed Valley side slopes are roughly 20 ° and maximum terrain difference is about 1 km.Values of for wind directions sampled for one hour at a height of 10 m are about 35 ° during the daytime. They slowly decrease to about 20 ° by 8 to 10 p.m. as stability increases but wind speeds are still relatively high. After 10 p.m. the drainage flow sets in at most stations, with speeds of 1 to 2 m s^-1, and average increases to about 30° during the period 11 p.m. to 6 a.m. In general, highest values of at night are associated with lowest values of wind speed and greatest static stability. This enhancement of by the terrain suggests that horizontal diffusion at night always conforms to that expected during nearly neutral stabilities. That is, Pasquill class D diffusion applies to the horizontal component all night in complex terrain.