长江中下游地区暖区暴雨特征分析

利用2007到2013年5-9月间常规和非常规资料以及6 h一次的NCEP 1°×1°再分析资料,将长江中下游地区暖区暴雨按天气形势划分为冷锋前暖区暴雨、暖切变暖区暴雨以及副热带高压边缘暖区暴雨三种类型。统计表明暖区暴雨一般发生在距离切变线(锋线)100~300 km的暖区内。主要结论包括:(1)冷锋型降水强度偏弱且分布均匀,集中在5、6月;暖切变型发生次数最多且强度大,主要发生在6、7月长江中下游地区的偏南部;副热带高压边缘型发生次数最少但强度较大,发生在7、8月。暖区暴雨的发生次数及强度在大别山、皖南山区较为集中。(2)暖区暴雨中短时强降水贡献大。(3)冷锋背景下的暖区暴雨一般产生在锋前低压槽中,暴雨落区与高低空急流耦合有紧密联系;暖切变型以低层暖切变线为主要天气背景,地面常有弱静止锋,暖区对流活动与中尺度急流结构、地形强迫等因素存在较高的相关性;副热带高压边缘暖区暴雨与局地的水汽积累和对流不稳定条件的发展有密切关系。据此建立三类暖区暴雨的概念模型。     

Comparison of prediction performance using statistical postprocessing methods

As the 2018 Winter Olympics are to be held in Pyeongchang, both general weather information on Pyeongchang and specific weather information on this region, which can affect game operation and athletic performance, are required. An ensemble prediction system has been applied to provide more accurate weather information, but it has bias and dispersion due to the limitations and uncertainty of its model. In this study, homogeneous and nonhomogeneous regression models as well as Bayesian model averaging (BMA) were used to reduce the bias and dispersion existing in ensemble prediction and to provide probabilistic forecast. Prior to applying the prediction methods, reliability of the ensemble forecasts was tested by using a rank histogram and a residualquantile-quantile plot to identify the ensemble forecasts and the corresponding verifications. The ensemble forecasts had a consistent positive bias, indicating over-forecasting, and were under-dispersed. To correct such biases, statistical post-processing methods were applied using fixed and sliding windows. The prediction skills of methods were compared by using the mean absolute error, root mean square error, continuous ranked probability score, and continuous ranked probability skill score. Under the fixed window, BMA exhibited better prediction skill than the other methods in most observation station. Under the sliding window, on the other hand, homogeneous and non-homogeneous regression models with positive regression coefficients exhibited better prediction skill than BMA. In particular, the homogeneous regression model with positive regression coefficients exhibited the best prediction skill.     

青藏高原拉萨地块西部念青唐古拉岩群的地球化学特征及构造意义

拉萨地块西部呈断块状沿狮泉河-申扎-嘉黎蛇绿混杂岩带附近分布的念青唐古拉岩群被认为是前寒武纪变质基底。本文对念青唐古拉岩群进行了系统的岩石学、地球化学、同位素年代学及构造地质学研究。研究结果表明片岩-片麻岩-变粒岩含十字石、石榴子石等特征变质矿物,遵循粒度分异规律,其原岩可能为来自冈瓦纳古陆核北缘中新元古代弧盆体系的活动大陆边缘浊积岩。斜长角闪岩具低硅、高铁镁、富钙的基性岩特征,其原岩为岛弧型基性火山岩。念青唐古拉岩群中的花岗伟晶岩锆石LA-ICPMS U-Pb年龄为1150±13Ma,具过铝质S型花岗岩地球化学特征,可能为中元古代(1150±13 Ma)以前就开始沉积的念青唐古拉岩群基底岩石通过部分熔融形成。与花岗伟晶岩渐变过渡接触的二云斜长片麻岩第一组变质重结晶锆石U-Pb年龄为701±15 Ma,结合十字石特征变质矿物,暗示了该地区中温高压变质作用的峰期变质,变质程度达角闪岩相;第二组热液流体锆石UPb年龄为301±8.4 Ma,可能与冈瓦纳大陆北缘古特提斯洋演化过程中的岩浆热液作用有关。     

薄板样条函数支持下的等深线追踪算法研究

基于薄板样条函数的拟合曲面能很好地根据水深点数据模拟水下地形,通过建立一定密度的规则格网可以十分精细地追踪等深线。因薄板样条曲面是光滑的,故生成的等深线具有一定的平滑性。本文首先论述了薄板样条曲面的解算步骤,然后研究了在该曲面上构建规则格网模型和追踪等深线的算法,最后以南方CASS作为实现平台,根据实际数据生成的等深线效果证明了本文提出的算法是可行有效的,能有效地避免曲线拟合过程中产生的凸起或陡变现象。     

基于“智慧城管”的宁波市城市管理多源数据整合研究

叙述了进行基于"智慧城管"的宁波市城市管理多源数据整合研究的必要性,阐明了整合的方法和技术路线,确定了整合的数据资源种类,描述了整合数据资源当作扩充城市部件的基本原理以及整合数据类的编码和属性表达方法,最后对整合后的应用效果进行了分析,即实现整合数据资源的高度共享和增值利用。     

恶劣环境下GPS/BDS混合双差模糊度固定性能分析

针对在恶劣观测环境下每个GNSS系统只观测到较少的几颗卫星,采用标准双差模型很难实现整周模糊度固定的问题,该文对GPS/BDS系统间混合双差模型进行研究,利用该模型计算出GPS/BDS系统偏差。在此基础上,利用实验分别对模拟和真实恶劣观测环境下的模糊度固定性能进行分析,实验结果表明,恶劣环境下GPS/BDS系统间混合双差模型表现良好,相较于经典的双差模型可将模糊度固定平均所需时间分别缩短43%和33%,模糊度固定成功率分别提高107%和31%。     

Shale Gas Formation and Occurrence in China: An Overview of the Current Status and Future Potential

Shale gas is one of the most promising unconventional resources both in China and abroad. It is known as a form of self-contained source-reservoir system with large and continuous dimensions. Through years of considerable exploration efforts, China has identified three large shale gas fields in the Fuling, Changning and Weiyuan areas of the Sichuan Basin, and has announced more than 540 billion m~3 of proven shale gas reserves in marine shale systems. The geological theories for shale gas development have progressed rapidly in China as well. For example, the new depositional patterns have been introduced for deciphering the paleogeography and sedimentary systems of the Wufeng shale and Longmaxi shale in the Sichuan Basin. The shale gas storage mechanism has been widely accepted as differing from conventional natural gas in that it is adsorbed on organic matter or a mineral surface or occurs as free gas trapped in pores and fractures of the shale. Significant advances in the techniques of microstructural characterization have provided new insights on how gas molecules are stored in micro- and nano-scale porous shales. Furthermore, newly-developed concepts and practices in the petroleum industry, such as hydraulic fracturing, microseismic monitoring and multiwell horizontal drilling, have made the production of this unevenly distributed but promising unconventional natural gas a reality. China has 10–36 trillion m~3 of promising shale gas among the world's whole predicted technically recoverable reserves of 206.6 trillion m~3. China is on the way to achieving its goal of an annual yield of 30–50 billion m~3 by launching more trials within shale gas projects.