基于应力变化的余震预测研究综述

本文综述了近期基于应力变化的余震预测研究进展。从静态库仑应力触发角度对余震活动进行研究主要有两方面内容:一是集中于对主震触发余震机制的讨论;二是通过库仑应力变化分布区域与实际余震空间分布区域进行定性对比分析,并认为库仑应力变化为正的区域有利于余震的发生,而这正是余震活动与应力变化高度相关的重要证据。基于应力变化的余震预测研究的一项重要内容是建立在速率-状态依从摩擦定律基础之上的余震活动率研究,即将余震活动作为一系列独立的成核事件,从断层滑动触发地震的角度出发,结合静态库仑应力计算得到余震活动率,进而得到余震数量。余震活动是与断层面上的剪切应力变化相关联的,余震活动率受应力扰动幅度、应力加载速率、断层基本物理特性及背景地震活动率等的影响。考虑到“余震激发余震”的特点,ETAS 模型与静态库仑应力变化相结合的研究方法提供了一条统计学与物理学方法(应力变化)相结合、能更完整地刻画余震活动特征的可能途径。     

华北地区大范围内中等地震活动平静的统计检验及其预测意义

以相邻２次地震的时间间隔作为统计量,对华北地区的地震活动异常平静进行了统计检验。统计结果表明,中小地震的时间间隔服从幂指数分布,对华北地区而言中强地震之前大范围内中小地震活动的异常平静现象是明显的,以９０％的置信概率主为,ＭＬ≥４．５地震持续１１０天以上的平静可判定为异常;约有７０％的平静出现之后,华北地区有ＭＳ≥５．０地震发生。     

Assessing the Influence of the ENSO on Tropical Cyclone Prevailing Tracks in the Western North Pacific

Using a statistical model for simulating tropical cyclone (TC) formation and a trajectory model for simulating TC tracks, the influence of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the peak-season (July-September) TC prevailing tracks in the western North Pacific basin is assessed based on 14 selected El Nino and 14 selected La Nina years during the period 1950-2007. It is found that the combination of statistical formation model and a trajectory model can simulate well the primary features of TC prevai...     

锰矿主要类型、分布特点及开发现状

锰的用途非常广泛,世界上90%～95%的锰应用于冶金工业,其余应用于电池工业、陶瓷工业、化学工业等。根据成矿作用过程中的含矿岩系特征,将世界锰矿划分为海相沉积型、火山(热液)-沉积型、变质型、热液型和表生型5类,以海相沉积型、变质型和表生型为主。截至2019年,世界锰的储量达8.12亿t,但分布极不均匀,主要集中在南非、巴西、乌克兰、澳大利亚、加蓬、中国、印度、加纳等国,而优质锰矿石主要分布在南非、澳大利亚、加蓬、加纳。时间上,将锰的成矿作用分为7期,其中元古宙和新生代是主要的成矿期。空间上,锰矿床主要分布在南非德兰士瓦群、乌克兰尼科波尔盆地、澳大利亚格鲁特岛和皮尔巴拉克拉通、中国泛扬子区、西非克拉通等。目前,锰的生产主要集中在南非的卡拉哈里和波斯特马斯堡锰矿田、澳大利亚的格鲁特岛、加蓬的莫安达锰矿、加纳的恩苏塔锰矿等地。     

Earth Summit Mission 2022: Scientific Expedition and Research on Mt. Qomolangma Helps Reveal the Synergy between Westerly Winds and Monsoon and the Resulting Climatic and Environmental Effects

“Earth summit mission 2022” is one of the landmark scientific research activities of the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research(STEP). This scientific expedition firstly used advanced technology and methods to detect vertical meteorological elements and produce forecasts for mountain climbing. The “Earth summit mission 2022”Qomolangma scientific expedition exceeded an altitude of over 8000 meters for the first time and carried out a comprehensive scientific investigation missi...     

Modulation of tropical cyclogenesis in the western North Pacific by the quasi-biweekly oscillation

The quasi-biweekly oscillation(QBWO) is the second most dominant intraseasonal mode over the western North Pacific(WNP) during boreal summer. In this study, the modulation of WNP tropical cyclogenesis(TCG) by the QBWO and its association with large-scale patterns are investigated. A strong modulation of WNP TCG events by the QBWO is found.More TCG events occur during the QBWO's convectively active phase. Based on the genesis potential index(GPI), we further evaluate the role of environmental factors in affecting WNP TCG. The positive GPI anomalies associated with the QBWO correspond well with TCG counts and locations. A large positive GPI anomaly is spatially correlated with WNP TCG events during a life cycle of the QBWO. The low-level relative vorticity and mid-level relative humidity appear to be two dominant contributors to the QBWO-composited GPI anomalies during the QBWO's active phase, followed by the nonlinear and potential intensity terms. These positive contributions to the GPI anomalies are partly offset by the negative contribution from the vertical wind shear. During the QBWO's inactive phase, the mid-level relative humidity appears to be the largest contributor, while weak contributions are also made by the nonlinear and low-level relative vorticity terms.Meanwhile, these positive contributions are partly cancelled out by the negative contribution from the potential intensity.The contributions of these environmental factors to the GPI anomalies associated with the QBWO are similar in all five flow patterns—the monsoon shear line, monsoon confluence region, monsoon gyre, easterly wave, and Rossby wave energy dispersion associated with a preexisting TC. Further analyses show that the QBWO strongly modulates the synoptic-scale wave trains(SSWs) over the WNP, with larger amplitude SSWs during the QBWO's active phase. This implies a possible enhanced(weakened) relationship between TCG and SSWs during the active(inactive) phase. This study improves our understanding of the modulation of WNP TCG by the QBWO and thus helps with efforts to improve the intraseasonal prediction of WNP TCG.     

结合全局信息描述子的局部特征匹配算法

针对影像间存在相似性场景时容易出现误匹配的问题,该文提出了局部DAISY描述子与全局纹理信息相结合的算法。详细论述了DAISY描述子和全局纹理的生成过程。该算法首先提取SIFT特征;然后计算特征点的DAISY描述子与全局描述子,获得结合全局信息的DAISY描述子;最后采用卡方统计量作为度量函数进行特征描述子的匹配。实验结果表明,该文算法能得到较好的匹配结果。但是该算法在大角度旋转情况下误匹配率较大。     

声光悬浮沙粒径谱测量仪

本文介绍了声光悬浮沙粒径谱测量仪的工作原理和海洋现场实验结果。     

西北太平洋热带气旋气候变化的若干研究进展

热带气旋气候变化研究不仅是当前国际热带气旋气候界的热点科学问题,而且也是具有现实意义的社会问题,各国气象学者和科学家们对此进行了广泛的研究。虽然热带气旋活动与气候变化之间的关系及其相应的内在物理机制至今还处在探究之中,但是近20多年来热带气旋气候学的研究还是取得了显著的进展。本文主要针对濒临中国的西北太平洋海域,回顾了热带气旋活动季节内、年际、年代际变化及其全球变暖背景下的变化趋势的气候学研究。此外,文中也对西北太平洋热带气旋气候学的研究进行了展望,并提出了该领域中一些亟待解决的科学问题。     

1983年菏泽5.9级地震前后小震频数及能量空间分布的分形特征

本文对菏泽地震为例,从频数及能量两方面对地震不均匀空间颁的分形特征进行研究,并探讨其预报含义。结果表明,地震频数及地震能量空间分布均表现出统计意义上的自相似特征,并且前者的分布结构较后者列为复杂。菏泽地震前几年的“降维”中视为中期预报的一个显著指标,而动态均值则可作为判断“降维”的一个较好标准;ｔ检验表明能量分布的降维较频数分布更为显著,并且其对中强地震孕育过程各阶段的反映似也列为灵敏,降维之后的