Regional debris flow susceptibility analysis based on principal component analysis and self-organizing map: a case study in Southwest China

A method was developed to analyze the susceptibilities of 541 regional basins affected by debris flows at the Wudongde Dam site in southwest China. Determining susceptibility requires information on source material quantity and occurrence frequency. However, the large number of debris flows can hinder the individual field investigation in a each small basin. Factors that may trigger debris flows can be identified using remotely sensed interpretation information. Susceptibility analysis can then be conducted based on these factors. In this study, SPOT5 satellite imagery, digital elevation models (DEM), a lithology distribution map, and rainfall monitoring data were used to identify 12 debris flow trigger factors: basin relief ratio, slope gradient in the initiation zone, drainage density, downslope curvature of the main channel, vegetation coverage, main channel aspect, topographic wetness index, Melton’s ruggedness number, lithology, annual rainfall, form factor, and cross-slope curvature of the transportation zone. Principal component analysis was used to obtain the eight principal components of these factors that contribute to susceptibility results. Then, a self-organizing map method was adopted to analyze the principal components, which resulted in a debris flow susceptibility classification. Field validation of 26 debris flow basins was used to evaluate the errors of the susceptibility classification, as well as assess the causes of such errors. The study found that principle component analysis and self-organizing map methodologies are good predictors of basin susceptibility to debris flows.     

基于波形重定技术的杭州湾平均海面高模型建立

利用AVISO提供的SARAL卫星杭州湾周年的WAVEFORM数据,通过对卫星波形分析,提出了一种新的波形重定方法,该方法在顾及波形物理机制基础上,根据各波形的特征进行重定。对重定前后的波形数据进行粗差剔除、共线平均,分析了重定后数据质量。通过交叉点平差,结合验潮站数据建立杭州湾平均海面高模型,所建模型与验潮站平均海面高差值的平均值为0.006m,标准差为0.038m。结果表明,利用本文提出的方法能显著提高卫星测高数据的精度与质量。     

包气带反硝化强度空间分布规律的整合分析

依据1970~2017年间发表的3955篇包气带反硝化强度相关论文,筛选出197组反硝化强度数据,利用整合分析,重点研究了包气带反硝化强度在典型生态类型（水平）和不同采样深度（垂向）的空间分布规律,识别了包气带反硝化强度的主控因素并研究其函数关系。结果表明:水平空间上,包气带表层0~0.5 m反硝化强度的分布特征显著,由大到小排序为:森林（8.03±0.21 mg/（kg·d））、农田（3.54±0.08 mg/（kg·d））、草地（3.38±0.12 mg/（kg·d））、湿地（2.32±0.23 mg/（kg·d））、沙漠（2.15±0.56 mg/（kg·d））。垂向空间上（6 m内）,各生态类型反硝化强度随深度的增加均呈“S”型变化规律。不同生态类型和不同采样深度下包气带反硝化强度的主控因素存在一定差异,主要为黏粒、有机质、全氮、硝态氮、有效磷,并给出了包气带反硝化强度与主控因素的回归方程。     

Objective Analysis on Large-scale Circulation Type and Its Links to Precipitation over China

Atmospheric circulation anomaly is a direct cause of weather and climate change. In the past, most researches for the relationship between Weather Type (WT) and precipitation have mainly focused on the subjective classification and diagnosis. Compared to the subjective analysis, objective classification uses more consistent index and standard unification, thus, we can get more WTs, and it has been widely used in many areas. By using daily 12UTC Sea Level Pressure (SLP), Precipitable Water (PW), and 700 hPa wind speed (UV700) data from ECMWF’s Interim Reanalysis, the classification of WTs over China was performed with the method of obliquely rotated T-mode principle component analysis. WT and its link to precipitation over China were further analyzed. The results show that the influence of different WTs on precipitation is not uniform over China, and also show distinctly difference in different seasons. A common feature is that WTs great impact on the regions and months with large precipitation, while less impact on regions and months have with less precipitation. In addition, precipitation trends originating from WT intensity changes are much more deterministic, significant, and predictable than trends from WT frequency changes.     

月表构造与深部构造的关系

地球和月球很可能是通过大撞击形成的。在行星地质学中,研究月球的地质-构造现象,对了解月球、地球乃至太阳系的形成与演化历史都有很大帮助。月球的构造分为深部构造与月表构造,寻找它们在分布或成因上的关系,可以为月球甚至地月系的起源和演化历史提供重要参考。利用LROC的宽视角影像数据以及LOLA数据提取解译月表构造,结合深大断裂进行观察分析,并对月球的撞击盆地进行统计,最后以静海地区为例分析构造分布特征,发现月球的质量瘤盆地中具有环状分布的月岭,外侧具有近环状分布的深大断裂,自前酒海纪至酒海纪,具备上述特征的质量瘤盆地占总撞击盆地的比例突然有一个很大的提升,且静海地区西部具有该构造分布特征。推测该特征与撞击、月海沉降等有关,且在酒海纪与雨海纪期间月球有较多的月海玄武岩分布,由此判断静海西部存在质量瘤,发生过撞击与月海沉降。     

中国西部寒区流域冰川水文调节功能研究

冰川作为固体水库以“削峰填谷”的形式显著调节径流丰枯变化,冰川的水文调节功能对于中国西北干旱区至关重要。使用现有VIC-CAS模型模拟得到中国西部寒区2014—2100年径流预估数据,从趋势和波动变化相结合的视角,基于径流变差系数法,构建了冰川水文调节指数（Glacier_R）,分析了9个寒区流域冰川径流变化的稳定性,详细剖析了历史时期（1971—2010年）和未来到21世纪末这些流域冰川水文调节功能的强弱变化。结果表明：历史时期及RCP2.6和RCP4.5情景下,除长江流域外,青藏高原其余流域的冰川径流减小时间节点为2020s,西北内陆河流域则为2010s。历史时期及RCP2.6和RCP4.5情景下至21世纪末,尽管西部寒区大部分流域的冰川径流呈减少趋势,但波动幅度减小或无明显变化,冰川径流稳定性增强或无变化。总体上,西北内陆河流域的冰川水文调节功能较高,青藏高原流域的冰川水文调节功能较低。RCP2.6和RCP4.5情景下,至21世纪末,西部寒区各流域冰川水文调节功能均呈现减弱趋势,西北内陆河流域减弱更加显著,如RCP4.5情景下,木扎提河冰川水文调节功能降幅达25.4%,而青藏高原各流域的冰川水文调节功能一直处于较低水平。从年代际变化来看,1970s—2010s是寒区流域冰川水文调节功能较强的时期,1980s和2000s两个时段冰川水文调节功能尤强;RCP2.6和RCP4.5情景下,未来到21世纪末,冰川调节功能明显减弱。减弱的时间节点不同,最早为1970s,最晚为2020s。     

基于F-MCDM的冰川旅游游客满意度综合评价及敏感性分析

游客满意度是衡量旅游地竞争力的关键因素之一,已受到众多旅游研究者的关注。在其热点研究中,有关冰川旅游游客满意度及不同游客属性间满意度差异的研究鲜见。选取达古冰川与海螺沟冰川为研究区,通过对游客属性细分,运用模糊多准则决策法（F-MCDM）及引入需求弹性理论对冰川旅游游客满意度进行了综合评价和敏感性分析,探讨了提升冰川旅游游客满意度的对策建议。结果表明：达古冰川游客实际满意度总体高于海螺沟冰川,两地均以管理与服务的满意度最高,消费状况与交通的满意度最低。就游客属性的相对满意度而言,两地均呈现男性满意度高于女性,高消费游客满意度高于低消费游客,高忠诚度游客满意度高于低忠诚度游客;两地相对满意度的差异表现在年龄、受教育程度、客源地和到访次数方面。相较于达古冰川,海螺沟冰川满意度敏感性更高,同等改进力度下游客满意度的提高更为明显高效,就两地满意度敏感性最高的景观特色而言,达古冰川1%的改善将提升游客满意度0.30%,而海螺沟冰川可提升0.45%;对于不同游客属性的满意度敏感性,两地均以不愿推荐、不愿重游和未达到期望的游客最高。最后依据满意度敏感性分析结果,为两地冰川旅游发展提出了关键属性改进、营销策略创新和旅游产品开发等针对性建议。     

基于遥感的大兴安岭小扬气镇用地类型变化及生态环境状况评价

大兴安岭小扬气镇位于大兴安岭南部,属大小兴安岭森林生态功能区,森林覆盖率高,湿地资源丰富,曾是木材生产基地。为掌握小扬气镇用地类型现状及其变化,开展生态状况评价,利用多源卫星遥感数据,通过多尺度图像分割、决策树及目视解译等方法分别对该区1985年、1998年、2008年和2018年土地利用类型进行提取,计算生态环境状况指数(I_E),评价生态环境状况。结果表明: 小扬气镇土地利用类型以林地、沼泽、水域为主,三者占研究区总面积的97%以上; 沼泽草地主要由阔叶林转化而来,耕地主要由阔叶林、沼泽草地转化而来,草地主要转化为阔叶林、沼泽草地,阔叶林与沼泽草地之间的相互转化最为剧烈; 新增工矿仓储用地主要占用了原有阔叶林土地,新增住宅用地主要占用了原有的沼泽草地、阔叶林、森林沼泽等。总体来看,区内生态环境状况良好,在维护生态安全、促进当地绿色经济发展中起到了重要作用。     

The Extra-Area Effect in 71 Cloud Seeding Operations during Winters of 2008–14 over Jiangxi Province,East China

Effects of weather modification operations on precipitation in target areas have been widely reported, but little is specifically known about the downwind (extra-area) effects in China. We estimated the extra-area effect of an operational winter (November-February) aircraft cloud-seeding project in northern Jiangxi Province in eastern China by using a revised historical target/control regression analysis method based on the precipitation data in winter. The results showed that the overall seasonal average rainfall at the downwind stations increased by 21.67%(p=0.0013). This enhancement effect was detected as far as 120 km away from the target area. Physical testing was used to compare the cloud characteristics before and after seeding on 29 November 2014. A posteriori analysis with respect to the characteristics of cloud units derived from operational weather radar data in Jiangxi was performed by tracking cloud units. Radar features in the target unit were enhanced relative to the control unit for more than two hours after the operational cloud seeding, which is indicative of the extra-area seeding effect. The findings could be used to help relieve water shortages in China.     

苏州市一次重霾污染天气过程的数值模拟

本文对苏州地区2015年12月13—15日发生的一次典型的重霾污染天气过程进行了数值模拟,分析了颗粒物及其组分的时空变化特征及其气象影响因子,以期为该区域空气污染治理和预防提供科学依据。结果表明:(1)利用WRF-Chem模式对此次重霾污染天气过程的污染气体成分进行数值模拟后发现,小时平均的PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)、CO、SO_2、NO_2模拟值与实测值的相关系数较高,达到0.68以上,通过了P0.01的显著性检验,且日变化过程对应也较好。(2)通过分析此次污染过程的天气背景,发现污染形成期高空环流比较平直,中层为均匀的弱高压控制,地面受弱高压脊控制,这种形势容易导致颗粒物的堆积。后期地面等压线密集时,风速大,有利于污染物的输送与扩散。(3)通过分析此次污染过程期间气象要素的变化发现,有逆温、风速小、相对湿度大等不利的气象条件是导致此次污染过程发生的重要原因之一。(4)HYSPLIT轨迹分析显示,此次重霾过程主要受北方大范围灰霾颗粒物南下影响,北方污染气团逐步南推,14至15日本地大气扩散条件差、污染物累积,最终导致本地污染加重,从而发生重霾事件。(5)火点图的分布进一步验证了此次重霾污染过程是由外来污染气团输入所导致。