基于时空分析的贫困丘陵山区耕地变化机理研究

在地理信息系统技术的支持下 ,利用耕地面积变化时间序列模型、耕地动态度模型、耕地重心变化模型等 ,对湖北省咸宁市耕地的时间变化和空间变化特征进行了定量的研究 ,并应用主成分分析法 ,选择 2 3个因素对其驱动因子进行了相关分析。结果表明 ,耕地变化主要受经济因子、人口、房地产政策及耕地开发强度的影响     

Recent progress of glaciological studies in China

Glacier inventory compilation during the past 20 years and modifications of that for the Eastern Pamir and Banggong Lake indicate that there are 46,342 modern glaciers with a total area and volume of 59415 km2 and 5601 km3 respectively in China. These glaciers can be classified into maritime and continental (including sub-continental and extremely continental) types. Researches show that glaciers in China have been retreating since the Little Ice Age and the mass wastage was accelerated during the past 30 to 40 years. Being an important part of glaciological studies in China, ice core climatic and environmental studies on Tibetan Plateau and in the Antarctica have provided abundant, high resolution information about past climatic and environmental evolution over the Tibetan Plateau and Antarctica. Except for different parameters recorded in ice cores relating to climate and environment changes on Tibetan Plateau, records from ice cores extracted from different glaciers show that the discrepancies in climatic and environmental changes on the north and south parts of the plateau may be the consequence of different influencing effects from terrestrial and solar sources. Glaciological and meteorological phenomena imply that Lambert Glacier valley is an important boundary of climate in the east Antarctica, which is thought to be connected with cyclonic activities and Circum-polar Waves over the Antarctica.     

山东省农田干旱预警模型

提出农田干旱强度的概念，反映受旱强度、受旱面积、干旱持续时间的综合作用，对于不同地域范围、不同时段的旱情具有可比性。应用1975-1994年逐旬全省受旱面积资料，计算山东省平均春旱强度、夏秋旱强度、年干旱强度，并与前期或同期降水量进行回归分析，建立干旱预警模型，可根据各地区降水量预报值预测当地后期的干旱强度。     

The Terrestrial NPP Simulation in China since 6ka BP

1. IntroductionAccording to the reconstruction of paleo-temperature based on δ18 O data of ice core in theGreenland (see Jouzel et al., 1987; Grootes et al.,1993; Blunier and Brook, 2001), the current inter-glacial epoch, the Holocene, began at ca. 11.5 thou-sand years before present (ka BP). Multiple sources(pollen data, macrofossils) reveal that the summer cli-mate in the Northern Hemisphere was warmer in theearly to middle Holocene (MH) (ca. 8-6ka BP) relativeto the present climate. …     

(40)~Ar/(39)~Ar chronology and geochemistry of high-K volcanic rocks in the Mangkang basin, Tibet

Our two newly obtained high-quality 40Ar/39Ar ages suggest that the high-K volcanic rocks of the Lawuxiang Formation in the Mangkang basin, Tibet were formed at 33.5±0.2 Ma. The tracing of elemental and Pb-Sr-Nd isotopic geochemistry indicates that they were derived from an EM2 enriched mantle in continental subduction caused by transpression. Their evidently negative anomalies in HFSEs such as Nb and Ta make clear that there is an input of continental material into the mantle source. The high-K rocks at 33.5±0.2 Ma in the Mangkang basin may temporally, spatially and compositionally compare with the early one of two-pulse high-K rocks in eastern Tibet distinguished by Wang J. H. et al., implying that they were formed in the same tectonic setting.     

Study of statistically correcting model CMAQ-MOS for forecasting regional air quality

Based on analysis of the air pollution observational data at 8 observation sites in Beijing including outer suburbs during the period from September 2004 to March 2005, this paper reveals synchronal and in-phase characteristics in the spatial and temporal variation of air pollutants on a city-proper scale at deferent sites; describes seasonal differences of the pollutant emission influence between the heating and non-heating periods, also significantly local differences of the pollutant emission influence between the urban district and outer suburbs, i.e. the spatial and temporal distribution of air pollutant is closely related with that of the pollutant emission intensity. This study shows that due to complexity of the spatial and temporal distribution of pollution emission sources, the new generation Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model developed by the EPA of USA produced forecasts, as other models did, with a systematic error of significantly lower than observations, albeit the model has better capability than previous models had in predicting the spatial distribution and variation tendency of multi-sort pollutants. The reason might be that the CMAQ adopts average amount of pollutant emission inventory, so that the model is difficult to objectively and finely describe the distribution and variation of pollution emission sources intensity on different spatial and temporal scales in the areas, in which the pollution is to be forecast. In order to correct the systematic prediction error resulting from the average pollutant emission inventory in CMAQ, this study proposes a new way of combining dynamics and statistics and establishes a statistically correcting model CMAQ-MOS for forecasts of regional air quality by utilizing the relationship of CMAQ outputs with corresponding observations, and tests the forecast capability. The investigation of experiments presents that CMAQ-MOS reduces the systematic errors of CMAQ because of the uncertainty of pollution emission inventory and improves the forecast level of air quality. Also this work employed a way of combining point and area forecasting, i.e. taking the products of CMAQ for a center site to forecast air pollution for other sites in vicinity with the scheme of model products "reanalysis" and average over the "area".     

北京石花洞地区奥陶纪灰岩36Cl侵蚀速率初探

本文根据理论上灰岩中36Cl的5个来源，论述了36Cl在灰岩深度剖面上的4个分布特征，描述了36Cl的采样方法和AMS的分析技术。计算出北京石花洞地区奥陶纪（O2）灰岩的表面侵蚀速度（ε=17.40μm/a）。     

珠江口盆地白云凹陷新生代构造演化动力学

白云凹陷构造演化史的研究对在白云凹陷开展油气勘探和深水沉积研究具有重要的意义。通过对断裂与沉积结构平面和剖面特点的分析,结合岩浆活动特点,文中提出白云凹陷是一个复式地堑,推测这种结构特点与凹陷下地壳的强烈韧性减薄和颈缩变形有关,表现为热岩石圈的伸展。其发育机制推测与白云凹陷位于构造转换带上有关,特殊的构造位置使白云凹陷成为强烈构造变形区,岩石圈地壳强烈减薄,伴随伸展过程和地幔上涌,脆性地壳或上地幔中部分熔融物质的出现导致岩石圈强度的急剧降低,在区域伸展应力场下以韧性流变方式减薄。岩浆在构造转换带下聚集并发育主岩浆房,由于白云凹陷南北边缘没有发育正断裂系统,岩浆主要沿垂直伸展的方向运移,因此在珠琼运动一幕和二幕南南东向伸展应力作用下,岩浆向白云凹陷的东部和西部运移至北西向基底深大断裂处,那里由于北西向断裂表现为左行张剪性质而成为压力较低的地区,从而成为岩浆上涌和侵位的地方。在岩浆聚集的地区,活动岩浆体附近的脆性变形被分散的韧性变形所取代,因此在凹陷的东北和西南两个角上,发育了张性和张剪性小断裂群,由于热岩石圈弹性较差,白云凹陷长期持续沉降。白云凹陷的断裂活动和沉积演化史还受到南海海盆扩张活动的影响。     

三峡库区巴东县城附近主要滑坡边界轨迹分形分维特征与滑坡稳定性关系

为了探索复杂滑坡轨迹结构演化及其稳定性定量分析计算的新途径，本文利用分形分维理论，分析三峡库区巴东县城附近滑坡边界轨迹的几何分形结构，并采用盒维数法分别求得巴东县城附近11个滑坡边界轨迹的分维值，计算结果表明：每个滑坡的轨迹结构具有其特征性的分维值，轨迹结构越复杂，结构层次越清楚，分维值越高；其中，榨房坪滑坡和黄腊石滑坡的分维值最高，分别为1.50和1.483，西壤口和谭家湾滑坡的分维值最低，分别为0.925和0.732；而黄土坡和赵树岭滑坡的分维值介于二者之间，分别为1.111和1.091。结合典型滑坡边界轨迹结构演化与滑坡稳定性关系的定性分析及前期滑坡稳定性定量计算和模拟分析，初步揭示：滑坡边界轨迹结构与稳定性是密切相关的，滑坡边界轨迹宏观扩展增值越明显，轨迹结构越复杂，分维值越高，其稳定性条件也越差，因此，分数维可作为衡量滑坡轨迹结构复杂性和稳定性的重要标志；滑坡边界轨迹宏观扩展变形存在一个极限，超过这个极限滑坡的局部失稳就转化为整体滑动；而滑坡边界轨迹则记录了滑坡变形扩展现象和信息，因此，相对应地滑坡轨迹分形结构的分维值也应存在一个极值，在极值点滑坡体处于临滑状态；滑坡边界轨迹结构的极限分维值大致为1.4～1.5，此时滑坡接近于整体极限失稳状态，而分维值在1.1～1.3之间则表示滑坡处于整体稳定，局部存在潜在失稳状态，分维值小于1则表示滑坡处于相对稳定状态。     

青藏高原东南缘贡嘎山东坡亚高山土壤的土相

根据土相学定义，提出了包括研究内容、方法和分类命名等的土相学研究具体方案。并以贡嘎山东坡亚高山为例，对该地从海拔l820m～3650m的垂直地带土壤的土相，进行了实例研究。分析了典型土壤的土貌、土型和土壤微形态等土相要素和土相的特征；提出了各要素和土相的具体分类系统和命名方法。研究结果表明，土相可系统、完整地表述宏观、中观和微观各层次的土壤形态特征。既继承了土壤学研究的传统理论，又充分吸收了土壤学最新理论研究成果；既有扎实的理论基础，又有可操作性。在理论和实际应用上都有重要意义。