洪水超定量模型的广义Pareto分布及其应用

为了扩大洪水信息,提高洪水模拟精度,研究超定量洪水频率分析模型。介绍了洪水超定量模型的基本理论,假设超定量洪水年发生次数服从Poisson分布,超定量洪水系列服从广义Pareto(GP)分布,给出年最大超定量洪水分布和超定量洪水重现期的计算方法,提出通过模型拟合优度检验来综合确定超定量系列阈值的方法。将超定量模型应用在海河流域小觉站洪峰频率分析中,结果表明:通过模型拟合优度检验确定超定量系列阈值的方法有效且可靠,洪水超定量系列年平均发生次数服从Poisson分布,GP分布洪峰设计值略大于P-Ⅲ分布洪峰设计值,应用在水利工程设计及风险分析中是偏安全的。     

监控视频动态目标的空间定位方法北大核心CSCD

针对监控视频动态目标的空间定位问题,本文在考虑相机畸变的前提下,对监控相机、目标像素坐标和地理场景之间的映射关系进行了研究,提出了基于数字表面模型(DSM)和基于平面约束的目标定位算法。首先,完成相机的标定,确定相机的成像模型;然后,提取畸变校正后的目标像素坐标,并通过目标定位算法计算目标的三维地理坐标;最后,进行了定位精度评定,并分析了两种定位算法的应用特点。本文的定位算法将以像素坐标定位的目标数据解析为以三维坐标定位的空间地理信息,为多摄像头的目标跟踪提供了统一的地理参考框架。     

抗大口黑鲈(Micropterus salmoides)蛙虹彩病毒药效模型的构建及其抗病毒中药筛选

大口黑鲈蛙虹彩病毒(LMBV)是一种严重危害大口黑鲈养殖的病害,但目前缺乏有效的防控手段。通过研究水温、鱼体大小以及攻毒剂量等条件对大口黑鲈感染蛙虹彩病毒的影响,构建体内抗病毒药效筛选模型,同时利用MTT法构建体外药物筛选模型,进而通过体外和体内药效模型,对29种中草药进行抗病毒药效评价,对筛选出药效最佳的2种中药进行体外和体内抗病毒药效评价。结果表明:水温和鱼体大小是影响体内药效模型的2个关键因子,最佳体内药效模型条件为:水温为25℃,鱼体大小20g,攻毒剂量为0.1mL 10^9.33 TCID₅₀/mL。结合体内和体外药效模型结果,筛选出紫花地丁和黄连这2种中药具有较好的抗病毒效果的中草药。体内药效结果表明:黄连和地丁的添加量为0.6g/kg和1.2g/kg时,其对大口黑鲈的保护率最高均达到40%,而两者用药后病毒在肝组织的抑制率分别可达71.5%和67.0%。组织病理学结果表明,当药物使用浓度为0.6g/kg和1.2g/kg时,可有效降低因大口黑鲈蛙虹彩病毒感染所导致的肝和肾等组织的病理学损伤。上述结果表明,黄连和地丁均具有较好的抗蛙虹彩病毒的作用。     

浙江省近50年大陆海岸线时空变迁分析

文章选取了1970-2018年近50年间具有代表性的6期Landsat、SPOT-5和GF-1卫星遥感影像,运用数字岸线分析系统,综合利用面积法、基线法等分析浙江省大陆岸线变迁,对岸线变化驱动力进行了分析。结果显示：（1）海岸线变化主要发生在杭州湾、象山港、三门湾、台州湾、乐清湾和瓯江口岸段,海岸线向海推进共围填海约14.77万hm2,海岸线的平均变化率为26.72m/a。（2）近50年来,浙江省大陆岸线呈明显递减趋势,海岸线减少了184.27 km,自然岸线减少了381.37 km,人工岸线增加了197.10 km。（3）浙江省大陆海岸线以人工岸线为主,人工岸线截弯取直,平直化严重,自然岸线保有量逐年降低。（4）围海养殖、围填海等人类活动是浙江省大陆海岸线变迁的主要驱动力因素。     

寒冷季节加重的单症状性夜遗尿中医证型及尿比重观察研究

目的：观察清痈饮对肛周脓肿热毒炽盛证术后创面愈合及肉芽组织趋化因子配体2（CCL2）因子表达量的影响。方法：将60 例肛周脓肿热毒炽盛证患者随机分为治疗组和对照组,每组各30 例。2组均采用脓肿切开术,术后对照组采用西医常规治疗,治疗组在对照组基础上加用清痈饮治疗。比较2组创面疼痛评分、创面分泌物评分、创面愈合时间、创面愈合率及CCL2因子表达量。结果：治疗组术后第5、8天创面疼痛评分及创面分泌物评分均低于对照组（P＜0.01）。治疗组创面愈合平均时间短于对照组（P＜0.01）。治疗组术后第14、21、28天创面愈合率均高于对照组（P＜0.01）。治疗组术后第7、14天CCL2因子表达量低于对照组（P＜0.01）。结论：清痈饮可通过下调 CCL2因子的表达来缓解肛周脓肿热毒炽盛证术后的创面疼痛,减少创面分泌物,促进创面愈合,缩短创面愈合时间。     

气象干旱对中亚棉花产量的影响

极端干旱事件频发对中亚棉花生产具有重要影响。本文利用乌兹别克斯坦赞格阿塔实验站棉花大田试验数据评估了APSIM-Cotton模型的适用性,根据CMIP6气候模式模拟的SSP1-2.6、SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5等3种共享社会经济路径下的气候变化数据集,分析了2021—2090年SPEI-3干旱指数的变化特征,进而利用APSIM-Cotton模型模拟了考虑CO₂肥效作用的气象干旱对棉花产量的影响。结果表明：APSIM-Cotton模型能够准确模拟乌兹别克斯坦塔什干地区的生育期和产量变化趋势;未来塔什干地区呈现温度明显升高、干旱发生频率明显增加的特征;气象干旱将导致棉花产量下降,SSP1-2.6、SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5等3种排放情景下,严重气象干旱导致2021—2050年棉花产量较1961—1990年分别下降28.0%、29.6%和32.1%,2061—2090年棉花分别减产31.5%、33.1%和35.7%,在SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5情景下,极端气象干旱导致2061—2090年棉花产量分别下降41.3%和54.2%;CO₂浓度升高可提高棉花产量,贡献率为14.9%~25.0%,但浓度达到750 µmol/mol以上时,棉花增产幅度将不再持续增加。     

Deuterium and oxygen 18 in precipitation and atmospheric moisture in the upper Urumqi River Basin, eastern Tianshan Mountains

The contribution of stable isotopes in meteorological, climatological and hydrological research is well known. This study analyzed the deuterium and oxygen 18 contents (δD and δ¹⁸O) of precipitation in event-based samples at three stations (Glacier No. 1, Zongkong, Houxia) along the upper Urumqi River Basin from May 2006 to August 2007. The δ¹⁸O in precipitation revealed a wide range and a distinct seasonal variation at all three stations, with enriched values occurring in summer and depleted values in winter. A statistically significant positive correlation was observed between the δ¹⁸O and δD and local surface air temperature, and better linear relationship existed between δ¹⁸O and air temperature than that of δD. This suggests that paleoclimatic archives relating to precipitation δ¹⁸O and δD can be useful for qualitative temperature reconstruction. The d-excess in precipitation also exhibited a seasonal variability. Based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, three-dimensional isentropic back-trajectories in HYSPLIT model were employed to determine the moisture source for each precipitation event. Results indicate a dominant effect of westerly air masses in summer and the integrated influence of westerly and polar air masses in winter, and d-excess can be used as a sensitive tracer of the moisture transport history.     

Soil properties as indicators of desertification in an alpine meadow ecosystem of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, China

The objective of this study was to examine the variation of time and space and the effects of alpine meadow desertification, and the study area was selected at the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau of China. The sampling locations were categorized as the top, middle, bottom of the slope and flat in front of the slope, and the sites were classified as alpine meadow, light desertified land, moderate desertified land, serious desertified land, and very serious desertified land according to the level of alpine meadow desertification. This study examined spatial and temporal variability in soil organic carbon (SOC), total nitrogen (TN), pH, and soil bulk density due to wind erosion and documents the relationship between soil properties and desertification of alpine meadows. Desertification caused decreases to soil organic carbon and total nitrogen and increases to pH and soil bulk density. Soil properties were greatly affected by the level of alpine meadow desertification with the changes being attributed to overgrazing. The middle portion of slopes was identified as being the most susceptible to desertification. Carbon and nitrogen stocks were found to decrease as desertification progressed, the SOC stocks were 274.70, 273.81, 285.26, 196.20, and 144.36 g m^?2 in the alpine meadow, light desertified land, moderate desertified land, serious desertified land and very serious desertified land, respectively; and the TN stocks were 27.23, 27.11, 28.35, 20.97, and 17.09 g m^?2 at the top 30 cm soil layer, respectively. To alleviate desertification of alpine meadow, conservative grazing practices should be implemented.     

择优法降水集合预报试验的研究

基于集合平均预报方法的基础上，提出了择优法降水集合预报方法，以多物理过程集合预报系统为例，对该方法进行阐述和试验。利用集合预报系统各成员过去24 h预报的500 hPa和700 hPa温度差（T500-700）与实况温度差的相关系数作为集合预报成员的筛选因子，选择相关系数较大的成员作为集合成员进行降水集合预报试验。初步试验结果表明，择优法降水集合预报要略优于集合平均法的预报，24 h降水集合预报有所改善。择优法降水集合预报简单易行，在计算资源有限的情况下，可优先计算择优的成员，因此比集合平均法节约计算时间，提高集合预报时效，具有一定的业务应用价值。