A minimalistic approach for evapotranspiration estimation using the Prophet model

ABSTRACT

This study aimed to evaluate the potential of the recently introduced Prophet model for estimating reference evapotranspiration (ETo). A comparative study was conducted for benchmarking the model results with support vector regression (SVR) and temperature-based empirical models (Thornthwaite and Hargreaves) in southern Japan. The performance of the Prophet, SVR and temperature-based empirical models was evaluated by Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and coefficient of determination (R²). The results indicate that temperature-based Prophet and SVR models have greater accuracy than the empirical models. The Prophet model with sole input of relative humidity, sunshine hours or windspeed showed acceptable accuracy (NSE > 0.80; R² > 0.80), while SVR models with similar inputs showed greater errors. Accuracy improved with increasing number of input parameters, giving excellent performance (NSE > 0.95; R² > 0.95) with all input parameters. Hence, the Prophet model is a new promising approach for modelling ETo with limited input variables.     

A surface network based method for studying urban hierarchies by night time light remote sensing data

Urban hierarchies are closely related to economic growth, urban planning and sustainable urban development. Due to the limited availability of reliable statistical data at fine scales, most existing studies on urban hierarchy characterization failed to capture the detailed urban spatial structure information. Previous studies have demonstrated that night time light data are correlated with many urban socio-economic indicators and hence can be used to characterize urban hierarchies. This paper presents a novel method for studying urban hierarchies from night time light data. Night time light data were first conceptualized as continuous mathematical surfaces, termed night time light surfaces. From the morphology of these surfaces the corresponding surface networks were derived. Hereafter, a night time light intensity (NTLI) graph was defined to describe the morphology of the surface network. Then, structural similarity between the night time light surfaces of any two different cities was calculated via a threshold-based maximum common induced graph searching algorithm. Finally, urban hierarchies were defined on the basis of the structural similarities between different cities. Using the 2015 annual NPP-VIIRS night time light data, the urban hierarchies of 32 major cities in China were successfully examined. The results are highly consistent with the reference urban hierarchies.     

Summer temperature variability across four urban neighborhoods in Knoxville,Tennessee, USA

The urban heat island (UHI) is a well-documented effect of urbanization on local climate, identified by higher temperatures compared to surrounding areas, especially at night and during the warm season. The details of a UHI are city-specific, and microclimates may even exist within a given city. Thus, investigating the spatiotemporal variability of a city’s UHI is an ongoing and critical research need. We deploy ten weather stations across Knoxville, Tennessee, to analyze the city’s UHI and its differential impacts across urban neighborhoods: two each in four neighborhoods, one in more dense tree cover and one in less dense tree cover, and one each in downtown Knoxville and Ijams Nature Center that serve as control locations. Three months of temperature data (beginning 2 July 2014) are analyzed using paired-sample t tests and a three-way analysis of variance. Major findings include the following: (1) Within a given neighborhood, tree cover helps negate daytime heat (resulting in up to 1.19 ^°C lower maximum temperature), but does not have as large of an influence on minimum temperature; (2) largest temperature differences between neighborhoods occur during the day (0.38–1.16 ^°C difference), but larger differences between neighborhoods and the downtown control occur at night (1.04–1.88 ^°C difference); (3) presiding weather (i.e., air mass type) has a significant, consistent impact on the temperature in a given city, and lacks the differential impacts found at a larger-scale in previous studies; (4) distance from city center does not impact temperature as much as land use factors. This is a preliminary step towards informing local planning with a scientific understanding of how mitigation strategies may help minimize the UHI and reduce the effects of extreme weather on public health and well-being.     

Trends in temperature extremes over nine integrated agricultural regions in China, 1961–2011

By characterizing the patterns of temperature extremes over nine integrated agricultural regions (IARs) in China from 1961 to 2011, this study performed trend analyses on 16 extreme temperature indices using a high-resolution (0.5° × 0.5°) daily gridded dataset and the Mann-Kendall method. The results show that annually, at both daytime and nighttime, cold extremes significantly decreased but warm extremes significantly increased across all IARs. Overall, nighttimes tended to warm faster than daytimes. Diurnal temperature ranges (DTR) diminished, apart from the mid-northern Southwest China Region and the mid-Loess Plateau Region. Seasonally, DTR widely diminished across all IARs during the four seasons except for spring. Higher minimum daily minimum temperature (TNn) and maximum daily maximum temperature (TXx), in both summer and winter, were recorded for most IARs except for the Huang-Huai-Hai Region; in autumn, all IARs generally encountered higher TNn and TXx. In all seasons, warming was observed at daytime and nighttime but, again, nighttimes warmed faster than daytimes. The results also indicate a more rapid warming trend in Northern and Western China than in Southern and Eastern China, with accelerated warming at high elevations. The increases in TNn and TXx might cause a reduction in agriculture yield in spring over Northern China, while such negative impact might occur in Southern China during summer. In autumn and winter, however, the negative impact possibly occurred in most of the IARs. Moreover, increased TXx in the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta is possibly related to rapid local urbanization. Climatically, the general increase in temperature extremes across Chinese IARs may be induced by strengthened Northern Hemisphere Subtropical High or weakened Northern Hemisphere Polar Vortex.

     

Progress in Danube Loess and Paleoenvironment Study

Danube loess, located at the westernmost part of the widespread Eurasian loess belt, is one of the most well-preserved aeolian dust deposits in Europe with the basal age dating back over 1 Ma. Owing to its unique location and formation processes, Danube loess plays an important role in understanding the linkage of climate changes in different climate regimes over Eurasian continent and paleoclimatic changes in middle-high northern latitudes. Major research advances of the Danube loess, including compositions, provenance, chronology, stratigraphy and paleoenvironment changes were systematically reviewed and the focuses of future research were suggested. To better understand loess provenance, the compositions of sediments in all the potential source areas should be investigated, and methodological study of provenance indicators and application of multi-proxies approaches need to be carried out. Chronologically and stratigraphically, feldspar luminescence dating and tephrochronology methods should be widely used, and the establishment of a uniform stratigraphic framework and correlation scheme should be constrained by precise chronology. In terms of the paleoenvironment, it is necessary to conduct high-resolution multi-proxies reconstruction of paleoenviroment for the entire loess-paleosol sequence, extending from the last interglacial period (130 ka to present) to interval of last 1 Ma. The future progress in Danube loess is crucial to improving the study of continental paleoclimate comparison and paleoclimate dynamics over the Eurasian loess region.     

Statistics of low frequency currents over the western Norwegian shelf and slope II: Model

We examine velocity statistics from a numerical simulation of the Nordic Seas with 4 km resolution, with a focus on the Norwegian shelf and slope. The model mean flow is dominated by its version of the Norwegian Atlantic Current, with two branches, one near the shelfbreak and the other near the 2000 m isobath. The model variances are surface-intensified and increase with water depth over the shelf; the variance ellipses also indicate topographic steering. Seasonality is more pronounced on the shelf than on the slope and the velocity probability distributions are weakly non-Gaussian, reflecting an excess of extreme velocities. All these aspects are broadly consistent with the observations. There are, however, differences with the observations. The topographic steering of the mean flow and of the variance ellipses is less pronounced in the model, a probable consequence of the model bathymetry, etopo5, being too smooth. The temporal and spatial coherence scales are too large by about a factor of 2, probably due to the model resolution. And correlations between velocity time series from the model and in situ moorings are generally small, despite the model having realistic forcing. The low predictability presumably reflects the degree of chaos in the flow and highlights the need for data assimilation.     

“7·22”云南盐津地震房屋震害分析

本文根据地震现场的考查情况,介绍了2006年7月22日云南盐津5.1级地震的灾害概况,归纳和分析了灾区生土墙结构、石结构、钢筋混凝土框架结构和木构架结构房屋的震害特征及其破坏原因,并对我国村镇房屋的防震减灾研究提出了若干建议。     

Rockfalls and rockfall inventory data: Some observations from surprise valley,Jasper National Park,Canada

The major controls of rockfall activity are divided into two interacting groups. (a)Climatic factors which, through their control of temperatures and the availability and state of water, are primary controls of rockfall trigger mechanisms. (b) Geologic factors which, via cliff form (plan, profile, dissection etc.) and the character and availability of materials, influence the type, spatial distribution and intensity of rockfall activity. Detailed examination of these controls suggest that both seasonal and daily patterns of rockfall activity can vary markedly over a very small area. The implications of this variability for the design and interpretation of rockfall inventories are discussed using sample data from Surprise Valley, Jasper National Park, for the period from May-October 1969. On a seasonal basis rockfall activity showed a major spring peak with secondary maxima in the fall and associated with major summer storms. Two sites of differing aspect and morphology were studied in more detail revealing marked differences in the mean hourly frequency (0·94:0·20), mean hourly probability (0·40:0·16, hours with rockfall/hours observed) and daily pattern of rockfall activity. The west facing site showed equal hourly probability of rockfalls from 10⁰⁰ to 20⁰⁰ hr whereas the east facing slope had a greater hourly probability when it was in the sun (11⁰⁰ 14⁰⁰hr) than in the shade (14⁰⁰-19⁰⁰hr). The differences in rockfall frequency and probabilities reflect the physical characteristics of the individual sites whereas the daily pattern of rockfalls is related to microclimate. These results suggest that if future inventory studies are to make a significant contribution, they must be carefully designed field experiments in which. (i) Data are restricted to the study or comparison of single continuously observed sites. (ii) Study sites and/or data periods are carefully selected to isolate and investigate specific controls e.g. the influence of cliff form, aspect, periods of rainfall etc. on rockfall patterns. (iii) Good on-site microclimate data are available. Also comparison of frequency measures based on the arithmetic mean should be avoided since the distribution of rockfalls per hour closely follows a Poisson distribution with occasional high values which unduly influence the value of the arithmetic mean. It is suggested that rockfall probabilities, based on the binary decision of whether or not a rockfall occurs in a given period, are a more useful measure for daily patterns of rockfall activity.     

Analysis Of The Disappearing Filament And Flare Of 7 May 1992

By using Yohkoh soft X-ray data, H filtergrams, and radio data, the activation of the disappearing filament and the flare eruption on 7 May 1992 have been studied. Main conclusions are as follows: (1) the emergence of new magnetic flux tends to affect the pre-existing X-ray loops, which usually appear in arcades spanning H filament, changing the magnetic environment of the filament, and then enhance the current in the filament. Therefore newly emerging flux plays a fundamental role in the destabilization of this filament. (2) According to the H data and the rising motion of the filament, the corresponding current variation in the filament has been calculated. It seems that the current interruption may be a possible trigger mechanism for this filament disappearance. (3) The magnetic field strength and the energy flux of energetic electrons in the source region of microwave bursts have been estimated by using the microwave spectrum. During the main phase, the mean magnetic strength and the energy flux of energetic electrons are about 300–400 G and 1×1011 erg cm–2 s –1, respectively. (4) The energy provided by reconnection of the current sheet and the total energy of the current filament are estimated and we show that there is enough energy stored in the filament to feed the 7 May, 1992 flare.     

黄土高原和南海陆架古季风演变的生物记录与Heinrich事件

宝鸡黄土中0.15Ma以来植物硅酸体研究表明,年均温度、1月份和年均降水量的变化与深海氧同位素变化有很好的一致性,而7月份降水量的变化与印度洋反映季风强弱的粒度变化相类似。南海陆架孢粉研究发现,14700-13900aB.P.和22900一20600aB.P.气候变冷期与北大西洋沉积物中H1、H2变冷事件存在成因上的联系。全球冰量通过冬季风等因素在“轨道尺度”上可能影响了夏季风对特定地区的控制时间,从而控制了黄土区气候的年均状况,但没有影响夏季风固有的变化周期和振幅。由低纬夏季太阳辐射控制的夏季风以其准20000a周期叠加在冬季风所具有的准0.1Ma周期上。冬、夏季风的演化行为具有较强的相对独立性,冬、夏季风同时减弱或增强的情况是存在的。Heinrich事件在东亚地区不仅影响了冬季风而且影响了夏季风。