Data-driven modelling approaches for socio-hydrology: opportunities and challenges within the Panta Rhei Science Plan

ABSTRACT

“Panta Rhei – Everything Flows” is the science plan for the International Association of Hydrological Sciences scientific decade 2013–2023. It is founded on the need for improved understanding of the mutual, two-way interactions occurring at the interface of hydrology and society, and their role in influencing future hydrologic system change. It calls for strategic research effort focused on the delivery of coupled, socio-hydrologic models. In this paper we explore and synthesize opportunities and challenges that socio-hydrology presents for data-driven modelling. We highlight the potential for a new era of collaboration between data-driven and more physically-based modellers that should improve our ability to model and manage socio-hydrologic systems. Crucially, we approach data-driven, conceptual and physical modelling paradigms as being complementary rather than competing, positioning them along a continuum of modelling approaches that reflects the relative extent to which hypotheses and/or data are available to inform the model development process.

EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis; ASSOCIATE EDITOR not assigned     

Spatio-temporal changes in the abundance of the populations of the gastrotrich community in a shallow lake of tropical Africa

Studies on the biodiversity and population dynamics of freshwater planktonic Gastrotricha have been carried out in conjunction with a physical–chemical analysis of the water in the Yaounde Municipal Lake (Cameroon, Central Africa) over a 14 months period (November 1996–December 1997). The results obtained allow to consider the Yaounde Municipal Lake as an eutrophic lake. It harbours eight species of Gastrotricha belonging to four genera (Chaetonotus, Dasydytes, Neogossea and Polymerurus) of the order Chaetonotida. This community was characterized by high abundances of populations, and was dominated by the genus Neogossea and Chaetonotusreaching up to 2000 ind. L⁻¹. Polymerurus was mostly abundant at the almost anoxic bottom layers. The highest abundances were found mostly during the rainy season, when there is an important sedimentation process of organic matter, and were influenced by several different environmental factors such as dissolved oxygen, temperature and pH of the water.

Finally this community which may play an important role in the water bodies, is a potential water quality indicator.     

Laboratory investigation of hydraulic fracture propagation using real-time ultrasonic measurement in shale formations with random natural fractures

The significance of natural fractures in unconventional shale hydrocarbon formations has opened new research frontiers in hydraulic fracturing. Among many of its unique contributions to gas production, the interaction between natural fractures and hydraulic fractures has long been experimentally and computationally investigated. Here, we experimentally investigated the evolution of the fracturing network with a self-developed ultrasonic testing system. Laboratory experiments are proposed to study the propagation of hydraulic fracture in naturally fractured model blocks that contain random micro-fractures. Our analysis suggests that the total fracture width obtained by ultrasonic pulse velocity (UPV) can reflect the dynamic evolution of the fracturing network. The nonlinear fracturing network evolution process is closely related to the variation of the total fracture width. It is suggested from the total fracture width that the maximum fracture network can be realized with greater natural fracture density, large injection rate, and smaller stress ratio. The study presents a better insight into the response of random naturally fractured shale formation under hydraulic fracturing treatment by analyzing the variation of UPV in real time.     

THE CHEMICAL COMPOSITION OF THE HAVERÖ METEORITE AND THE GENESIS OF THE UREILITES

The chemical composition of Haverö is presented and compared with the composition of the other five ureilites     

Modellversuche zur Hangtektonik

Zusammenfassung Das Verformungsverhalten von Felshängen wird einmal durch die geologische Entwicklungsgeschichte, zum anderen durch die zum Zeitpunkt der Beobachtung herrschenden Randbedingungen (Höhe, Neigung des Hanges, eingeprägte Kräfte) und Gebirgseigenschaften bestimmt. Diese Gebirgseigenschaften sind einerseits von den Gesteinseigenschaften (Verformbarkeit und Festigkeit) und andererseits von der Klüftung abhängig.Mit Hilfe zweidimensionaler großmaßstäblicher Modelle, die in einer ersten Serie aus starren Kluftkörpern (Strukturmodelle) und in einer zweiten Serie aus äquivalentem Modellmaterial aufgebaut waren, wird der Versuch unternommen, die innere Kinematik eines ganzen Hangquerschnittes zu studieren. Während im ersten Fall der Einfluß des Trennflächengefüges allein untersucht werden kann, überlagern sich im zweiten Fall Material- und Gefügeparameter.Anhand der Strukturmodelle wird eine Einteilung in verschiedene typische Verformungsverhalten von Hängen in Abhängigkeit von der Kluftstellung und vom Kluftreibungswinkel vorgenommen.Der besonders interessante Fall eines Kluftkörperverbandes mit bergeinwärtsfallender Bankung — hier überlagern sich Rotations- und Translationsbewegungen — wird in seinem gesamten Verformungsablauf beschrieben und nach charakteristischen Verformungsstadien unterteilt. Dabei wird die Entwicklung der Verformungen vom Hakenwerfen der Böschungsfront bis zu einem tiefgreifenden Talzuschub mit der Ausbildung ausgeprägter Schwächezonen erfaßt.Die an den Versuchen durchgeführten Beobachtungen gestatten eine bessere Bewertung des Trennflächeneinflusses auf das Verformungsverhalten von Felsmassen mit regelmäßigem Gefügemuster (H-Typ) und geben Hinweise zur besseren Abschätzung des Verformungsablaufes im Inneren eines Hanges sowie der zu erwartenden Form des Böschungsbruchkörpers.

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The deformation behaviour of rock slopes is influenced by the geological history, by the boundary conditions (height, inclination of the slope, additional forces) acting at the time of observation and the material properties of the rock mass. The properties depend on the rock parameters (deformability and strength) and on the joint patterns.With two-dimensional large scale models which consisted of rigid blocks in the first series of tests (structural models) and of equivalent model material in a second one, it was tried to study the kinematics of a whole slope section.In the first of those cases joint fabric is the only parameter to be investigated while in the second, series of test material and structural parameters have to be considered simultaneously. The structural models allow a classification into different types of deformation behaviour of the slopes. Criteria of classifications are the inclination of the strata and the friction angle.The especially interesting case of a jointed rock system with strata dipping into the mountain (in this case rotational and translational displacements are superposed) is described in its whole deformation history which is divided into characteristic stages of deformation. The development of displacements is studied from a first Hakenwerfen at the front of the slope to a deep Talzuschub with the formation of zones of weakness (latent sliding surfaces).Conclusions drawn from these tests allow a better assessment of the influence of joint sets on the deformation behaviour of a rock mass, the development of displacements in the interior of a slope and the shape of sliding surfaces.

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Résumé Le processus de déformation des versants rocheux est déterminé d'abord par l'histoire géologique, ensuite par les conditions immédiates du milieu régnant au moment de l'observation (hauteur, inclinaison de la pente, forces emmagasinées) et par les propriétés à l'échelle de l'ensemble rocheux. Ces dernières dépendent d'une part des propriétés du matériau rocheux lui-même (déformabilité et résistance) et d'autre part de la fissuration.A l'aide de maquettes bidimensionelles à grande échelle composées, lors d'une première série, de blocs rigides (modèle structural) et lors d'une seconde série, de blocs faits d'un matériau équivalent, on a assayé d'étudier la cinématique interne d'une coupe transversale faite dans un versant. Tandis que dans le premier cas, c'est seulement l'influence de la disposition des plans de division qui a pu être recherchée, dans le second il y a eu superposition des paramètres propres à cette disposition et au matériau.En partant de ces modèles structuraux, on a pu classer les différents types de comportements à la déformation des versants en fonction de la position de fissures et de leur angle de frottement.Le cas particulièrement intéressant d'un complexe fissuré à stratification inclinant vers l'intérieur du versant (ici se superposent en effet les mouvements de rotation et de translation) est décrit intégralement dans le déroulement de sa déformation et subdivisé en stades caractéristiques de déformation. On a pu ainsi saisir le développement des déformations depuis le «Hakenwerfen» du front du talus jusqu'à la poussée en profondeur vers la vallée, avec formation de zones de faiblesse bien marquées.Les observations faites lors des essais permettent de mieux évaluer l'influence des plans de division sur le processus de déformation des masses rocheuses qui ont une structure régulière (type H). Elles donnent des indications pour apprécier plus justement le développement de la déformation dans un versant, et de la forme de la zone de rupture à laquelle il faut s'attendre.

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Comparison of atmospheric aerosol backscattering and air mass back trajectories

Summary Atmospheric backscattering from aerosol particulates has been measured over the Atlantic at 10.6 μm wavelength with an airborne, coherent heterodyne, lidar, and corresponding air mass back trajectories have been calculated. These back trajectories (usually extended up to 10 days prior to the backscatter measurement) have shown very diverse origins for the air parcels at different altitudes. In many cases it has been possible to attribute the observed levels of scattering to these origins over oceanic, arctic, continental, industrial etc. regions. This is illustrated by 6 flight records: out of Ascension Island in the South Atlantic; over the Azores in the mid North Atlantic; over the UK and the North Sea; and in the Arctic along 71° North. In each of these regions the profiles of backscatter versus altitude show highly variable features; remarkably different origins for air masses at different altitudes are evident from the corresponding back trajectory analyses. It is thus possible for the first time to present probable explanations for the different levels of scattering observed at different altitudes. Received July 14, 2000 Revised May 14, 2001     

Drop size dependent sulfate distribution in a growing cloud

A simple entraining air parcel model including cloud microphysical and chemical processes is used to calculate the distribution of sulfate over the drop sizes under continental background conditions. Under these conditions the aerosol sulfate is predicted to contribute the largest amount of aqueous sulfate in cloud drops. The sulfate produced by oxidation is found to contribute significantly in drops larger than 10 m radius.     

A fuzzy-Markov-chain-based analysis method for reservoir operation

In this study, a fuzzy-Markov-chain-based stochastic dynamic programming (FM-SDP) method is developed for tackling uncertainties expressed as fuzzy sets and distributions with fuzzy probability (DFPs) in reservoir operation. The concept of DFPs used in Markov chain is presented as an extended form for expressing uncertainties including both stochastic and fuzzy characteristics. A fuzzy dominance index analysis approach is proposed for solving multiple fuzzy sets and DPFs in the proposed FM-SDP model. Solutions under a set of α-cut levels and fuzzy dominance indices can be generated by solving a series of deterministic submodels. The developed method is applied to a case study of a reservoir operation system. Solutions from FM-SDP provide a range of desired water-release policies under various system conditions for reservoir operation decision makers, reflecting dynamic and dual uncertain features of water availability simultaneously. The results indicate that the FM-SDP method could be applicable to practical problems for decision makers to obtain insight regarding the tradeoffs between economic and system reliability criteria. Willingness to obtain a lower benefit may guarantee meeting system-constraint demands; conversely, a desire to acquire a higher benefit could run into a higher risk of violating system constraints.