CAS FGOALS-f3-L Large-ensemble Simulations for the CMIP6 Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project

Large-ensemble simulations of the atmosphere-only time-slice experiments for the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) were carried out by the model group of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System (FGOALS-f3-L). Eight groups of experiments forced by different combinations of the sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice concentration (SIC) for pre-industrial, present-day, and future conditions were performed and published. The time-lag method was used to generate the 100 ensemble members, with each member integrating from 1 April 2000 to 30 June 2001 and the first two months as the spin-up period. The basic model responses of the surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation were documented. The results indicate that Arctic amplification is mainly caused by Arctic SIC forcing changes. The SAT responses to the Arctic SIC decrease alone show an obvious increase over high latitudes, which is similar to the results from the combined forcing of SST and SIC. However, the change in global precipitation is dominated by the changes in the global SST rather than SIC, partly because tropical precipitation is mainly driven by local SST changes. The uncertainty of the model responses was also investigated through the analysis of the large-ensemble members. The relative roles of SST and SIC, together with their combined influence on Arctic amplification, are also discussed. All of these model datasets will contribute to PAMIP multi-model analysis and improve the understanding of polar amplification.     

长江流域大范围旱涝与南亚高压的关系

利用１９５８～１９９９年月平均气象资料，分析了４２　ａ以来长江流域大范围旱涝的时空分布特征， 发现长江流域降水具有非常明显的年代际变化，年代际的转折发生于２０世纪７０年代末，６０年 代的持续干旱和９０年代的多发性洪涝形成鲜明对比。依照降水标准差大小，从４２　ａ降水资料 中划分出６个严重涝年和５个严重旱年。合成分析表明旱涝年大气环流和全球海温均有明显差 异，涝年高 低层副热带高压偏南偏强，全球海温呈大范围正距平，旱年则相反。文中对比分析了南亚 高压和海温两个异常因子与夏季长江流域降水的关系，发现南亚高压强度指数与长江流域降 水有显著相关，二者的年代际变化趋势非常一致，２０世纪７０年代末当南亚高压由弱变强，长 江流域由相对干旱转为相对多雨。而赤道太平洋ＳＳＴＡ与长江流域降水的关系不甚确定。超前 ／滞后相关分析表明，前期冬春季１００　ｈＰａ副热带高压强度与夏季长江流域降水呈显著的正相 关，前期冬春季赤道东太平洋ＳＳＴＡ与长江流域降水也呈正相关，但相关不显著。分析结果表 明，由于中国特殊的地理环境、地形和海陆分布特征，将南亚高压作为一个异常强信号并加 以关注，对中国短期气候尤其是灾害性气候的预测具有重要意义。     

春末夏初南亚高压的形成过程及其与ENSO事件的联系

利用ERA-Interim再分析资料,分析了春末夏初南亚高压建立过程的气候特征和可能机制,并讨论了ENSO事件冷、暖位相对南亚高压建立过程年际变化的影响。结果表明,第24候,气候平均的南亚高压形成于中南半岛东南部的对流层高层,这与菲律宾群岛南部和中南半岛局地对流的加强有关。一方面,菲律宾群岛南部对流加强能够在其北部产生负涡度源,在高空热带东风急流的作用下,其下游的南海地区出现负涡度,相应地出现闭合的高空反气旋,南亚高压初步形成。另一方面,中南半岛局地对流令南亚高压中心加强发展,并使其最终位于中南半岛上空。春末夏初菲律宾群岛附近对流的经向摆动决定了南亚高压的形成位置,而中南半岛局地对流的强度则控制着南亚高压的加强北抬。由于菲律宾南部和中南半岛的局地对流都受ENSO事件影响,因此在ENSO事件的冷、暖位相下,南亚高压的形态和位置在其建立过程中差异明显。在暖事件发生后,热带对流在加里曼丹岛以东发展,南亚高压形成于苏门答腊群岛北部至泰国湾上空,此时中南半岛对流偏弱,限制了南亚高压的北抬发展;而在冷事件发生后,热带对流在菲律宾群岛中部加强,同时南亚高压形成于中南半岛中部上空,随后中南半岛对流迅速加强,令南亚高压明显西伸北抬。因此,ENSO事件的冷、暖位相对春末夏初南亚高压的形成位置有显著影响。     

基于LASG/IAP大气环流谱模式的气候系统模式

文章扼要介绍了基于LASG/IAP大气环流谱模式(SAMIL)的气候系统模式的新版本FGOALS-s的发展和结构。出于发展一个在东亚季风模拟方面有一定优势的气候系统模式之目的,FGOALS-s的大气模式分量SAMIL采用了较高的水平分辨率R42,这相当于2.8125°(经度)×1.66°(纬度),高于三角截断T42的分辨率。对FGOALS-s在模拟大气、陆面、海洋和海冰的气候平均态,以及主要的年际变率信号方面的能力进行了检验。分析表明,FGOALS-s成功地控制了气候漂移趋势,能够较为真实地模拟大气、海洋和陆面的气候平均态,特别是受益于大气模式的较高分辨率,由中国西南向东北延伸的夏季风雨带的分布,在模式中得到较为真实的再现,表明该模式在东亚夏季风的模拟上具有较强能力。耦合模式能够成功再现El Ni~no事件的非规则周期变化,但是其年际变化的振幅较之观测要弱。赤道中西太平洋年际变率的强度较之赤道中东太平洋要强。在中高纬度,模式模拟的北大西洋涛动模态,在空间分布上与观测接近。FGOALS-s模式存在的主要问题,是模拟的热带海温偏冷、而中纬度海温则偏暖,原因是模式模拟的云量分布存在偏差,它直接影响到海表的净热通量收支。模式模拟的北大西洋高纬度地区的海温明显偏冷,令该地区的年平均海冰分布的范围明显偏大;然而受南极周边海温偏高影响,南极洲周围的海冰范围则偏少。FGOALS-s的未来工作重点,宜放在大气模式的云过程、海洋模式的经向能量输送过程、以及海洋与大气的淡水通量耦合方案的改进方面。     

20–50-day oscillation of summer Yangtze rainfall in response to intraseasonal variations in the subtropical high over the western North Pacific and South China Sea

The spatio-temporal variability in summer rainfall within eastern China is identified based on empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of daily rain-gauge precipitation data for the period 1979–2003. Spatial coherence of rainfall is found in the Yangtze Basin, and a wavelet transform is applied to the corresponding principal component to capture the intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) of Yangtze rainfall. The ensemble mean wavelet spectrum, representing statistically significant intraseasonal variability, shows a predominant oscillation in summer Yangtze rainfall with a period of 20–50 days; a 10–20-day oscillation is pronounced during June and July. This finding suggests that the 20–50-day oscillation is a major agent in regulating summer Yangtze rainfall. Composite analyses reveal that the 20–50-day oscillation of summer Yangtze rainfall arises in response to intraseasonal variations in the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH), which in turn is modulated by a Rossby wave-like coupled circulation–convection system that propagates northward and northwestward from the equatorial western Pacific. When an anomalous cyclone associated with this Rossby wave-like system reaches the South China Sea (SCS) and Philippine Sea, the WNPSH retreats northeastward due to a reduction in local pressure. Under these conditions, strong monsoonal southwesterlies blow mainly toward the SCS–Philippine Sea, while dry conditions form in the Yangtze Basin, with a pronounced divergent flow pattern. In contrast, the movement of an anomalous anticyclone over the SCS–Philippine Sea results in the southwestward extension of the WNPSH; consequently, the tropical monsoonal southwesterlies veer to the northeast over the SCS and then converge toward the Yangtze Basin, producing wet conditions. Therefore, the 20–50-day oscillation of Yangtze rainfall is also manifest as a seesaw pattern in convective anomalies between the Yangtze Basin and the SCS–Philippine Sea. A considerable zonal shift in the WNPSH is associated with extreme dry (wet) episodes in the Yangtze Basin, with an abrupt eastward (westward) shift in the WNPSH generally leading the extreme negative (positive) Yangtze rainfall anomaly by a 3/8-period of the 20–50-day oscillation. This finding may have implications for improving extended-range weather forecasting in the Yangtze Basin.     

积云对流和云物理过程调整对气候模拟的影响

本文利用中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室 (LASG/IAP) 的大气环流谱模式SAMIL, 结合观测与政府间气候变化专门委员会第四次评估报告 (IPCC AR4) 大气模式集合平均结果, 以大气辐射通量为例, 诊断分析了物理过程调整前后模式对气候模拟的影响。旧版本SAMIL对大气辐射通量的模拟存在较大偏差, 经过大气辐射过程、 积云对流和诊断云等物理过程的调整后, 新版本SAMIL模拟的全球辐射通量的年平均结果与观测的偏差大幅减小, 其中大气顶能量收支的年变化及其平均值与观测更为接近。在积云对流方案调整基础上, 通过对诊断云物理方案的进一步调整, 新版本SAMIL对云物理量模拟更为合理, 在赤道辐合带等区域, 在很大程度上克服了单一积云对流物理过程调整引起的云宏观和微观属性不匹配问题, 能模拟出夏季气候平均辐射通量的全球分布特征, 尤其在东亚区域有较好的模拟能力。研究还表明, 在热带和副热带对流活跃区域, 当前SAMIL中积云对流过程偏差对辐射通量的模拟偏差有很大影响, 而模式中较为简单的诊断云方案也会将云宏观物理量模拟偏差带入云微观量模拟中, 也是主要偏差源之一。本文结果表明, 要继续提高SAMIL的模拟性能, 急需更新云物理参数化方案以改进云辐射过程的模拟, 同时也需要有针对性的研究积云对流和云物理过程之间相互作用, 并作进一步协同调整。     

AAS has been accepted for Coverage by the Science Citation Index in 2009

In May 2008, ScienceWatch.com named Advances in Atmospheric Sciences a Rising Star among Geosciences journals. According to Essential Science IndicatorsSM from Thomson Reuters, the journal＇s cur-rent citation record includes 764 papers cited a total of 1,658 times between January 1, 1998 and February 29 2008.     

GRACE卫星时变重力场的小波多尺度分解——以2008年汶川Ms8.0大地震为例

根据UTCSR发布的GRACE卫星资料,计算了汶川及其周边地区的卫星时变重力场,并利用小波多尺度分析方法对卫星重力场进行分解,得到了反映不同深度的重力场细节和逼近。通过研究各个细节和逼近成分的重力场变化,结合区域构造运动的特点,对GRACE观测的时变重力场及汶川地震的动力机制进行了初步解释和讨论。结果表明,4阶细节和4阶逼近较好地揭示了汶川地区构造形变和深部物质流动引起的重力变化,而且这种震前重力变化特征满足地震孕育发生的条件。     

冬季青藏高原大气热状况分析Ⅰ:气候平均

通过诊断3套再分析资料的非绝热加热场,研究冬季青藏高原上空大气的热力特征.结果表明,与夏季为强热源的特征不同,冬季高原上空不是欧亚大陆上最强的冷源中心.冬季高原上空整体是偏弱的冷源,在高原西侧及东南地区上空甚至出现非绝热加热正值区,这一分析对以往研究提出的高原是冷源的特性给出了修正.各种非绝热加热分量的诊断表明,冬季高...