Dynamic-analogue correction of the decadal change of East Asian summer precipitation in the late 1990s

This paper systematically evaluates the deviations that appear in the hindcasts of the East Asian summer precipitation (EASP) decadal change in the late 1990s in two global coupled models (BCC_CGCM and BCC_CSM). The possible causes for the deviations between the model hindcasts and observations are analyzed. The results show that the hindcasts of EASP by BCC_CGCM and BCC_CSM deviate from observations, with the anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) being -0.01 and -0.09 for the two models, respectively. The SST anomalies in North and West Pacific and the SST index values predicted by the two models also deviate from the observations, indicating that inconsistent SST fields may be the key factor leading to the deviation in the prediction of the EASP decadal shift. Thus, a dynamic-analogue scheme is proposed to correct the precipitation hindcasts by using SSTs, where SST and EASP are highly correlated, to select historical analogue cases. Cross validations show that the average ACC of the temporal-latitude distribution of the EASP between the corrected hindcasts and observations is 0.18 for BCC_CGCM and 0.02 for BCC_CSM; both are much higher than the uncorrected hindcasts. Applying the dynamic-analogue correction scheme in both models successfully improves prediction of the EASP decadal change in the late 1990s.     

The variabilities of convective precipitation and large-scale precipitation in southern China for the period 1980–2020

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - In this paper, the spatial and temporal characteristics of convective precipitation (CP) and large-scale precipitation (LSP) in southern China during...     

The 2009 Summer Low Temperature in Northeast China and Its Association with Prophase Changes of the Air-Sea System

Under the background of global warming, summer (JJA) low temperature events in Northeast China had not occurred for about 15 yr since 1994, but one such event took place in 2009. By using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, the 100-yr station temperature data at Harbin and Changchun, and the Hadley Center sea surface temperature (SST) data, this paper intends to reveal the cause, circulation background, and influencing factors of this event. Analysis of both horizontal and vertical circulations of a low-value system over Northeast China in summer 2009 during the low temperature event shows that anomalous activities of the Northeast China cold vortex (NECV) played the most direct role. A decadal cooling trend of-0.8 C (10 yr)-1 over 1999-2008 at Changchun and Harbin was found, which is obviously out-of-phase with the linear warming trend (0.2 C (10 yr)-1 ) over 1961-2000 for Northeast China in response to the global warming. The previous winter North Pacific polar vortex (NPPV) area index, significantly positively related to the observed summer temperatures of Harbin and Changchun, was also in a significantly declining tendency. These provide favorable decadal backgrounds for the 2009 low temperature event. Different from the average anomaly field of 500-hPa height for summer 1994-2008 in Northeast China, in the summer of 2009, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) showed a strong negative phase distribution, and significant negative height anomalies dominated Northeast Asia, Aleutian Islands, and North Atlantic. Furthermore, the negative phase of North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) in the winter of 2008 was obviously strong, and it maintained in the spring of 2009. Meanwhile, the SSTA in the equatorial eastern-central Pacific Ocean in the winter of 2008 showed a La Nina phase, but the strength of the La Nina weakened obviously in the spring of 2009. The abnormally strong activities of NECV in June and July of 2009 were related to the disturbances of stationary waves that replaced the original ultra-long waves over the North Pacific region in April and May 2009. The singular value decomposition (SVD) and harmonic analysis results suggest that the anomalous phase of NPO is an important precursor for summer temperature variations over Northeast China, and also a stable planetary-scale component that can be extracted from the atmospheric circulation in addition to the chaotic components on the synoptic scale.     

Application of an Economy--Climate Model to Assess the Impact of Climate Change

An interdisciplinary investigation was conducted to assess the impact of climate change on grain yields using an economy--climate model (C-D-C). The model was formulated by incorporating climate factors into the classic Cobb-Douglas (C-D) economic production function model. The economic meanings of the model output elasticities are described and elucidated. The C-D-C model was applied to the assessment of the impact of climate change on grain yields in China during the past 20 years, from 1983 through 2002. In the study, the land of China was divided into eight regions, and both the C-D-C and C-D models were applied to each individual region. The results suggest that the C-D-C model is superior to the classic C-D model, indicating the importance of climate factors. Prospective applications of the C-D-C model are discussed.     

全区台站数据采集分发综合监控系统设计与实现

文章针对目前基层观测台站传输现状,设计了气象观测数据采集传输监控平台,实现了观测数据采集、传输、分发、管理、监控的统一,克服和解决工作人员工作流程繁琐、效率低;数据传输管理分散,监控难度大：原始数据存储分散,不利一统管理,共享能力低;格式及数据质量控制程序由各厂家开发,不利于根据本地化情况进行修改和调整;不利于基础数据传输工作的全区统一规范管理和部署等方面的弊端和难题。系统具体功能包括：观测数据文件的实时采集传输、观测数据初步质量控制、观测数据文件存储管理、监控信息采集存储、信息前台显示操作平台、实时报警功能、时钟同步功能,系统的实施将降低工作强度、提高工作效率、促进全区整体信息网络业务的进一步发展。     

空间点过程理论在极端气候事件中的应用研究

该文定义了12种极端温度事件和6种极端降水事件,将基于空间点过程理论的k阶最近邻距离丛集点提取算法应用于极端温度和极端降水事件的研究,给出了极端温度和极端降水事件区域群发性站点的检测流程;采用多年平均的疏密差异比R和有效率η两个指标,对所定义的各种极端气候事件的区域群发性进行了有效性检验,结果表明:k阶最近邻距离丛集点提取算法适用于极端气候事件的区域群发性研究,并进一步阐明了极端气候事件区域群发性的物理含义。     

On Prediction of Record-Breaking Daily Temperature Events

The daily maximum/minimum temperature data at 740 stations in China from 1960 to 2005 were ana-lyzed to reveal the statistical characteristics of record-breaking（RB）daily extreme temperature events in the past 46 yr.It is verified that the observational daily extreme temperatures obey the Gaussian distribution. The expected values of RB extreme temperatures were obtained based on both the Gaussian distribution model and the initial condition of observed historical RB high/low temperature events after tedious the-oretical derivation.The results were then compared with those obtained by the iteration computation of the pure theoretical model.The comparison suggests that the results from the former are more consistent with the observations than those from the latter.Based on the above analyses,prediction of future possible RB high/low temperature events is made,and the spatial distributions of maximum/minimum theoretical values of their intensities are also given.It is indicated that the change amplitudes of future extreme temperatures differ evidently from place to place,showing a remarkable regional feature：the future extremely high temperature events will have a strong rising intensity in Southwest China,and a relatively weak rising intensity in western China;while the largest decrease of the future extremely low temperature events will appear in Northeast China and the north of Northwest China,and the decrease will be maintained relatively stable in space in Central China and Southwest China,in comparison with the historical low temperature pattern.Features in the occurrence time of the future RB temperature events are also illustrated.     

安徽省地壳介质P波Q值的确定及其分析研究

利用安徽省测震台网记录到的中小地震Ｐ波记录，采用频率域方法，测定本省区域范围内１９８５－１９９５年间地壳介质的Ｑ值。本地区介质特性Ｑ值与震中距间线性关系较好，本地区地壳Ｑ值目前处于中低值状态。     

邛海湖盆形态研究

邛海是四川省第二大淡水湖泊,本研究是为更好地利用和保护该人类资源所做的基础研究工作之一。通过基于GPS-RTK技术以及测深仪的水下地形测量,结合原有历史资料,应用湖沼学理论,对邛海的湖盆形态进行定量化研究。经研究,邛海为南北长、东西宽湖体较为接近半球体形式的断陷湖泊,正常高水位(1510.3m)下最大水深18.80m,平均水深10.63m,湖长10.85km,湖面最大宽度5.24km,平均宽度2.53km,岸线长37.4km,湖面面积27.408km2,湖底真面积27.411km2,容积291.43×107m3。研究结果对邛海流域的深入研究及保护与开发提供了基础信息支持。     

中国锑矿床类型及时空分布规律

中国是世界上锑资源和生产大国。锑矿床划分为喷流沉积改造型、沉积改造型、变质再造型、岩浆热液型、火山热液型和外生堆积型六大类,细分十三亚类。近千个锑矿床（点）主要分布于华南锑矿成矿带、昆仓—秦岭锑成矿带、藏滇锑成矿带和阴山—天山锑成矿带。其中华南锑矿成矿带是最重要的锑成矿带,该带中有三个矿化集中区呈等间距分布。中国锑矿床最重要的成矿期为泥盆纪和侏罗－白垩纪。主要赋矿岩系为泥盆纪细碎屑岩—碳酸盐岩系,其次为元古界浅变质碎屑岩。