GRAPES区域集合预报两种侧边界扰动方法对比试验

中国气象局数值预报中心自2014年建立了区域集合预报业务系统,其使用的侧边界扰动由全球集合预报系统动力降尺度得到。为深入了解侧边界扰动对区域集合预报的影响,基于15 km水平分辨率的区域集合预报模式,使用动力降尺度方法和尺度化滞后平均法(scaled lagged average forecasting,SLAF)设计构造了两种侧边界扰动方案,并开展了2015年7月共6天的集合预报试验,利用集合均方根误差、集合离散度、连续分级概率评分、离群值、Brier Score及相对作用特征曲线面积等概率预报检验方法进行了多方面检验,分析了两种侧边界扰动方案对区域集合预报质量的影响。结果表明:动力降尺度侧边界扰动方案(DOWN)的扰动总能量在各垂直层次均大于SLAF方案,使得边界上前者的离散度大于后者,集合扰动增长更为合理;对于等压面要素和地面要素,DOWN方案的离散度、Outlier、CRPS等评分优于SLAF方案,反映了DOWN方案构造的侧边界扰动更加合理;在降水概率预报技巧方面,SLAF方案在评分上具有一定优势,但评分的提高没有通过显著性水平检验,因此认为两种方案对降水预报的改进基本相当。     

杭锦旗北部牧草引种试验

利用在内蒙古杭锦旗北部进行牧草引种试验的数据,结合产量效益分析了4个牧草品种对当地土壤与气候条件的适应性,初步得出适应杭锦旗北部气候、生态条件的牧草品种,并通过产量效益分析,确定了适合当地的牧草间、混作模式,为当地建立人工饲草基地发展生态畜牧业提供决策参考。     

地心和月心引力常数及月球形心与质心的确定

指出了地心引力常数GMe、月心引力常数GMl及月球形状中心和月球质量中心的意义和重要性;介绍了用空间探测器观测数据测定GMe与GMl及月球形状中心和月球质量中心的原理和方法;综合给出了利用空间探测器测定的数值。     

新疆乌什6.2级地震的中期预测

介绍了利用地倾斜资料和中国地壳运动网络工程GPS复测资料对新疆地区震情进行跟踪研究的基本依据、方法和过程,对2005年2月15日发生的乌什Ms6.2地震给出了较好的年度预测意见。     

GPS测量误差与数据处理的质量控制

针对GPS测量结果的误差来源,从GPS卫星信号传播过程、观测条件和数据处理等方面讨论了GPS控制网数据处理的质量控制问题,介绍怎样进行基线解算和网平差的质量控制,并阐述了提高GPS网精度的若干方法。     

中国西北半干旱区土地景观变化成因--以榆林市为例

1 Introduction Landscape change is a result of the complex interactions between physical, biological, political, economic and social driving forces (Moody and Woodcock 1995; Apan et al., 2002). Landscape in arid and semi-arid China is extremely vulnerabl…     

青藏高原不同时段气候变化的研究综述

1 Introduction The annual mean world temperature increased by about 0.6℃ from the late 1800s to the 1980s (Wang, 1994). The global environmental change is marked with “global warming” and its possible effects on the ecosystem as well as the production …     

2-level r-tree index based on spatial grids and Hilbert R-tree

IntroductionSpatial index is the data structure between spatialoperation algorithms and spatial data objects, and itis usually used to improve the efficiency of spatialdata operations. Spatial index is one of the funda-ment techniques to manage the spatia…     

Impact of topography and land-sea distribution on East Asian paleoenvironmental patterns

Much geological research has illustrated the transition of paleoenvironmental patterns during the Cenozoic from a planetary-wind-dominant type to a monsoon-dominant type, indicating the initiation of the East Asian monsoon and inland-type aridity. However, there is a dispute about the causes and mechanisms of the transition, especially about the impact of the Himalayan/Tibetan Plateau uplift and the Paratethys Sea retreat. Thirty numerical sensitivity experiments under different land-sea distributions and Himalayan/Tibetan Plateau topography conditions are performed here to simulate the evolution of climate belts with emphasis on changes in the rain band, and these are compared with the changes in the paleoenvironmental patterns during the Cenozoic recovered by geological records. The consistency between simulations and the geological evidence indicates that both the Tibetan Plateau uplift and the Paratethys Sea retreat play important roles in the formation of the monsoon-dominant environmental pattern. Furthermore, the simulations show the monsoon-dominant environmental pattern comes into being when the Himalayan/Tibetan Plateau reaches 1000–2000 m high and the Paratethys Sea retreats to the Turan Plate.     

广西及邻区中等地震前地震活动参数时间扫描异常特征

分析了广西及邻区中等地震前7种地震活动性参数的时间扫描异常特征,结果表明,地震活动性参数的分析可以提取中等地震前的异常信息,在中等地震前异常明显,对广西及邻区未来中强地震的震情分析有一定的预报意义。