我国西部生态退化的社会经济分析--以川西为例

导致川西生态退化主要原因是经济发展水平低，人口超过环境容量，农村生产方式和生活方式落后，以柴、粪为薪、天然放牧，陡坡垦殖，砍伐森林等导致植被破坏，草场退化，水土流失，据此，对川西的区域资源优势，川西较低密度人口，川西资源开发和支柱产业选择应重新评价和定位。进行川西生态建设，实施可持续发展战略，必须营造开放的社会－经济－自然复合系统的耗散结构，构造社会、经济发展与生态建设协调的有序结构和机制。同时，较彻底地改造农林牧生态系统，开创与生态协调的农业结构，生产模式，种植模式和管理模式，进行农牧区社区建设，根除刀耕火种，陡坡垦殖，游牧的社会基础。     

Temporal variations in aerosol composition at Lanzhou City,Northwestern China

Although Lanzhou is one of the most heavily polluted cities in China, the composition of its air pollutants have not yet been studied in detail. The data of four months on the concentrations and compositions of ions from daily air-filter samples in the winter and spring during 2007–2008 were analyzed to investigate temporal trends and their possible causes. The results indicate that mean concentrations of almost all the aerosol components are greater in winter than in spring due to stronger emissions in winter and weaker localized dispersion. Spring dust storms are the major cause of the highest peak PM10 concentrations recorded during the study period; however, these elevated levels were transient. Ion concentrations related to coal combustion show the greatest reduction from winter to spring, while the concentrations of strong crustal components show a less-pronounced reduction. Strong cycles in the levels of particulate matter (PM) and all ions are also observed during the winter months due to meteorological conditions. Depending on the season, nine different ions accounted for 20%–50% of the PM concentration. The particle size of polluting ions was constant at times of increasing PM concentrations (particularly during winter), whereas the particle size of crustal ions increased dramatically during spring dust storms. Local meteorological conditions (especially wind speed) have a strong influence on the levels of pollutants. Four dust storms were noted, including one during winter. In summary, the regional transport of desert dust from the Gobi can significantly affect air quality and the chemical composition of aerosols in Lanzhou. The dust storms can strongly increase concentration of crustal ions, which are characteristics of deserts in northwestern China. This observation is in agreement with back-trajectories, which show reduced levels of pollutant ions during dust storms. Data on nitrate:sulfate ratios indicate that stationary point sources are the main source of ions rather than mobile sources.     

我国农业生产潜力的研究进展

本文从大气-作物-土壤系统出发,综述各层次农业生产潜力的估算方法,并简评近期的科研成果。     

内蒙古陶来托斑岩型钼矿综合找矿信息提取及找矿潜力

对内蒙古陶来托钼多金属勘查区进行地质、地球物理、地球化学综合找矿信息的提取来评价矿区找矿潜力。结果表明,陶来托钼多金属矿是一个以斑岩型钼矿为主的勘查区,发现了斑岩型钼矿床及多处热液脉型铅锌银矿(化)点。成矿岩体为早白垩世花岗斑岩,控矿构造为北东-北北东向断裂。斑岩型钼矿化区与环状激电异常和环状磁异常对应性较好,显示出中低视极化率异常为矿致异常的特征。1∶5万化探异常元素由钼矿化区至铅锌银矿化区表现出Mo、W—Ag、Pb、Zn的侧向分带特征。根据综合找矿信息提取及斑岩型矿床成矿系列建立,指出区内钼矿找矿潜力较大,并预测钼矿区北西侧为热液脉型铅锌银矿的成矿有利地段。     

中国南方中新生代大地构造属性和南华造山带褶皱过程

笔者阐述了中国南方中新生代大地构造属性是陆上三向造山带,是在陆上无海侵的大地构造环境下,由特提斯,北西太平洋和昆仑－秦岭三大构造域相互作用形成的具有ＮＷ、ＮＥ、ＷＮＷ三向优徒选大地构造线的造山带 ,是由晚二叠世以来多期次继承性造山运动累积辍     

“7.15”宜昌大暴雨的地形影响特征

湖北地形复杂,受地形影响产生的局地强降水造成的灾害很多。2010年7月15日宜昌地区的强降水是在满足大尺度降水条件下受地形作用加强的局地暴雨。本文利用实况高空、地面、加密自动站、雷达以及LAPS再分析资料对背景场、低层流场、雷达回波等几个方面进行了分析。得出：冷空气南下和副热带高压的加强促进低层风场的调整,在大尺度降水条件下,地形对低层风场的辐合作用触发了局地强降水的发生。此次过程中地形对降水的触发主要有两方面的作用：一方面为地形迎风坡抬升触发作用,另一方面为地形对近地层流场的影响造成的辐合触发。     

天津电力人体舒适度预报模型

为做好天津电力气象服务工作,提供符合电力负荷预测需求的人体舒适度预报产品,本文根据国内外多种人体舒适度预报模型,利用2002—2005年夏季天津逐日电力负荷数据和气象数据,计算天津市逐日平均人体舒适度,详细分析各模型计算结果与平均气温和气象负荷的对应关系。结果发现,UTCI模型、吕伟林室外预报模型和李源模型计算的人体舒适度更符合天津市人体舒适度感觉,且与电力气象负荷的线性相关性较好。鉴于吕伟林模型在我国应用较广,本文采用最小二乘法对吕伟林室外预报模型进行拟合订正,建立出符合天津市电力气象服务需求的人体舒适度预报模型。     

Comprehensive flood risk assessment based on set pair analysis-variable fuzzy sets model and fuzzy AHP

On the basis of the disaster system theory and comprehensive analysis of flood risk factors, including the hazard of the disaster-inducing factors and disaster-breeding environment, as well as the vulnerability of the hazards-bearing bodies, the primary risk assessment index system of flood diversion district as well as its assessment standards were established. Then, a new model for comprehensive flood risk assessment was put forward in this paper based on set pair analysis (SPA) and variable fuzzy sets (VFS) theory, named set pair analysis-variable fuzzy sets model (SPA-VFS), which determines the relative membership degree function of VFS by using SPA method and has the advantages of intuitionist course, simple calculation and good generality application. Moreover, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was combined with trapezoidal fuzzy numbers to calculate the weights of assessment indices, thus the weights for flood hazard and flood vulnerability were determined by the fuzzy AHP procedure, respectively. Then SPA-VFS were applied to calculate the flood hazard grades and flood vulnerability grades with rank feature value equation and the confidence criterion, respectively. Under the natural disasters risk expression recommended by the Humanitarian Affairs Department of United Nations, flood risk grades were achieved from the flood hazard grades and flood vulnerability grades with risk grade classification matrix, where flood hazard, flood vulnerability and flood risk were all classified into five grades as very low, low, medium, high and very high. Consequently, integrated flood risk maps could be carried out for flood risk management and decision-making. Finally, SPA-VFS and fuzzy AHP were employed for comprehensive flood risk assessment of Jingjiang flood diversion district in China, and the computational results demonstrate that SPA-VFS is reasonable, reliable and applicable, thus has bright prospects of application for comprehensive flood risk assessment, and moreover has potential to be applicable to comprehensive risk assessment of other natural disasters with no much modification.     

有毒铜绿微囊藻对鱼和溞的毒性

用有毒铜绿微囊藻细胞及其从毒细胞中提取的毒素喂养和腹腔注射鱼类，结果表明：（1）微囊藻毒素MCYST－LR对所有实验过的鱼有毒害作用（LD_(50)为110－500μg／kg）．注射毒素24h后，鱼肝电镜超微结构观察均表现出肝损伤．（2）在受控条件下，当用有毒铜绿微囊藻作为食物喂养日鲢和罗非鱼时，鱼类能在以毒藻为唯一食物的环境中生活20d以上．白鲢和罗非鱼粪便的毒性比喂食藻类的毒性分别降低约2—4．5倍，其肝的超微结构现察仍有轻度损伤．（3）在培养液中加入15μg／mLMCYST－LR和用实验室纯培养的铜绿微囊藻作为食物培养枝角类时，均可使它们在48h死亡．以无毒微囊藻培养时则生长不良亦不怀卵，表明它不是枝角类合适的食物．     

利用探空资料计算水汽压

利用L波段探空资料的相对湿度值及温度值计算水汽压时,由于探空测量的是相对于水面的相对湿度,只能用相对于水面的饱和水汽压公式来计算,低温时用相对于冰面的饱和水汽压公式计算水汽压可能不正确.对水相和冰相的不同处理所带来的偏差进行了分析和讨论.以CIMO规定的温度-45℃和0℃为界,分别计算了用相对于冰面的饱和水汽压公式和相对于水面的饱和水汽压公式得到的水汽压值,并进行了比较.结果表明,在计算实际水汽压的过程中,用不同的饱和水汽压公式所产生的绝对偏差虽然不大,但相对偏差最大可能达到50％,不容忽视,对确定对流层上部的气候效应可能产生影响.