库布齐沙漠3种沙产业模式的经济效益评价

库布齐沙漠是中国第七大沙漠,2000-2015年沙产业发展迅速,规模较大。库布齐模式在国内外影响力很大,实现了防沙治沙和生态经济的双赢。但库布齐模式在科学界也存在较大争议,主要表现在库布齐模式的水资源承载力和沙产业的效益评价方面。运用数据包络分析方法（DEA法）评价了库布齐模式中3种沙产业模式2015年的经济效益。结果表明：在3种沙产业模式中,光伏发电综合利用模式和生态旅游模式投入产出综合效率最高,达到1.000,高于生态饲料加工模式的综合效率且3种沙产业模式的纯技术效率均实现DEA有效;3种沙产业模式投入产出规模效率均较高,均值为0.978,最优为光伏发电综合利用模式和生态旅游模式。在此基础上,提出了库布齐模式存在的问题、沙产业今后发展的方向与对策建议。     

Impacts of future climate change on agroclimatic resources in Northeast China

In this study, the spatial distribution and changing trends of agricultural heat and precipitation resources in Northeast China were analyzed to explore the impacts of future climate changes on agroclimatic resources in the region. This research is based on the output meteorological data from the regional climate model system for Northeast China from 2005 to 2099, under low and high radiative forcing scenarios RCP4.5 (low emission scenario) and RCP8.5 (high emission scenario) as proposed in IPCC AR5. Model outputs under the baseline scenario, and RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios were assimilated with observed data from 91 meteorological stations in Northeast China from 1961 to 2010 to perform the analyses. The results indicate that: (1) The spatial distribution of temperature decreases from south to north, and the temperature is projected to increase in all regions, especially under a high emission scenario. The average annual temperature under the baseline scenario is 7.70°C, and the average annual temperatures under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are 9.67°C and 10.66°C, respectively. Other agricultural heat resources change in accordance with temperature changes. Specifically, the first day with temperatures ≥10°C arrives 3 to 4 d earlier, the first frost date is delayed by 2 to 6 d, and the duration of the growing season is lengthened by 4 to 10 d, and the accumulated temperature increases by 400 to 700°C·d. Water resources exhibit slight but not significant increases. (2) While the historical temperature increase rate is 0.35°C/10a, the rate of future temperature increase is the highest under the RCP8.5 scenario at 0.48°C/10a, compared to 0.19°C/10a under the RCP4.5 scenario. In the later part of this century, the trend of temperature increase is significantly faster under the RCP8.5 scenario than under the RCP4.5 scenario, with faster increases in the northern region. Other agricultural heat resources exhibit similar trends as temperature, but with different specific spatial distributions. Precipitation in the growing season generally shows an increasing but insignificant trend in the future, with relatively large yearly fluctuations. Precipitation in the eastern region is projected to increase, while a decrease is expected in the western region. The future climate in Northeast China will change towards higher temperature and humidity. The heat resource will increase globally, however its disparity with the change in precipitation may negatively affect agricultural activities.     

基于岩石物理模型的页岩孔隙结构反演及横波速度预测

准确预测储层的等效孔隙纵横比对页岩储层岩石物理建模及横波速度预测具有重要意义。为分析页岩储层孔隙纵横比及预测横波速度,提出了基于岩石物理模型的页岩孔隙纵横比反演及横波速度预测方法。本文首先通过岩石物理模型建立岩石的纵、横波速度与孔隙纵横比、孔隙度和矿物组分等参数之间的定量关系,寻找最佳孔隙纵横比;然后通过使理论预测与实际测量的纵波速度之间误差达到最小的方式反演孔隙纵横比,并以此为约束预测横波速度。实际测井数据反演结果表明,龙马溪组页岩地层的孔隙纵横比稳定,而围岩的孔隙纵横比变化范围较大;说明与围岩相比,页岩的孔隙结构更为稳定。同时,预测得到的页岩横波速度与实测横波速度的误差较小,另外对于缺少矿物组分资料的页岩层段,用平均矿物组分预测得到的横波速度误差仍较小;说明与矿物组分相比,龙马溪组页岩的纵、横波速度对孔隙纵横比参数更敏感。综上所述,利用该方法可预测到较为准确的等效孔隙纵横比和横波速度。     

Simulating research on pressure distribution of floor pore water based on fluid-solid coupling

In terms of the problem that deep coal resources are under the threats of high water pressure, it is necessary to further study the outburst mechanism of working face floor karst water from the view of studying varying patterns of rock mechanical parameters and confined water pressure distribution of floor rock under the mining influence in the process of mining. Through the theoretical research of fluid-solid coupling and rock seepage experiment, the changing rule of the rock porosity and the Young’s modulus is analyzed, the changing law of the floor displacement is obtained by establishing the floor mechanic model, and the relation between elastic energy density and rock mass unit strain is established. Based on the numerical model of fluid-solid coupling analysis by the Comsol Multiphysics software, the changing law of floor displacement corresponds to the theoretical solution, the different variation laws of rock mass of different depths under the actions of ground pressure are acquired by simulation calculation, the distribution characteristics of pore water pressure are discussed, and the elastic energy density of the rock mass under the action of imbalance water pressure before and after mining is comparatively analyzed. Studies show that the distribution of pore water pressure is horizontally different before and after the stress peak line, and it mainly has four distribution patterns vertically. When mining above the confined water, the spatiotemporal position when and where the upper and lower boundaries of the rock mass in the lower water-resisting layer release energy at the same time is critical to the occurrence of water inrush.     

Effect of bedding planes on wave velocity and AE characteristics of the Longmaxi shale in China

The experimental work described in this paper was carried out in order to discover more about the effects of bedding planes on wave velocity and acoustic emission (AE) characteristics of shale. Two groups of specimens, which were collected from the Longmaxi shale outcrop in Chongqing, China and cored perpendicular and parallel to the bedding planes, were tested under uniaxial compression, and the wave velocity and AE were monitored. There were obvious differences in the acoustic characteristics of shale with different bedding plane orientations. The experimental results show that (1) the average increasing rates of P- and S-wave velocities were 39.86 and 54.41%, respectively, for the specimen with a load perpendicular to the bedding planes (Y-0). The P-wave velocity and axial strain of specimen show a marked logarithmic relationship. However, the average increasing rates of P- and S-wave velocities were 5.44 and 10.54%, respectively, for the specimen with a load parallel to the bedding planes (Y-90). The good linear relationship between P-wave velocity and axial strain before failure of specimen has been built. Generally, S-wave velocity was more sensitive to axial strain than P-wave velocity. (2) AE characteristics for Y-0 showed that a few signals → quiet period → stable increase → steep increase; for Y-90: quiet period → stable increase → sudden increase → sharp increase. The AE energy for two groups of specimens was concentrated on low and middle of amplitudes (45-80 dB), but the proportion of amplitudes (80–100 dB) and the total counts of AE for Y-0 was 1.95, 2.2 times as much as that for Y-90, respectively. The results preliminarily revealed the effect of bedding orientation on the wave velocity and AE properties of shale and may provide guidance for the improvement of acoustic logging and microseismic monitoring in the field.     

Hazard degree identification and coupling analysis of the influencing factors on goafs

In China, there are a large number of mined-out area which bring a great hidden danger to the mine enterprise’s safety production and people’s life and property. Therefore, the stability evaluation and the mechanism analysis of goafs have become a hot issue in the study on sustainable development of mining industry. To solve the complexity, concealment, and uncertainty of goaf influencing factors, 14 factors, i.e., rock mass structure, goaf span, exposed area, and so on, were selected as the evaluation indexes according to an iron ore. Then, the hazard evaluation model of goaf was established by using the information entropy and the unascertained measurement (UM) theory to identify the hazard degree, and the hazard importance degree index was put forward by changing the influencing factors and its index value to quantitatively analyze the coupling degree of influencing factors. This paper takes the BFZ-8 goaf as an example to evaluate and analyze the goaf stability. The results show that the evaluation model about UM and the experimental schemes are feasible and practicability, and the UM evaluation grades are consistent with the fuzzy evaluation grades and the actual risk grades in the case of multi-factor coupling. And the experimental results quantitatively reflect the coupling degree of the influencing factors by comparing the relative change rate of the importance degree, and the coupling results are consistent with the actual situation. So, the method can guide the production safety of mine, protect life and property safety of miners, and provide technical support and a new method for hazard degree identification of the goaf.     

Stability evaluation method for hyperbolic coal pillars under the coupling effects of high temperature and ground stress

We studied an underground coal gasification technique using strip mining-face mining gasifier controlled retraction injection technology (SMFM). This green mining approach offers several advantages over conventional strip mining but the stress distribution and stability of SMFM operations remain largely untested. In particular, hyperbolic coking pillars are used in SMFM compared with rectangular pillars used in traditional strip mining, which can influence the ultimate bearing capacity and stability. We use numerical simulations to investigate the influence of different factors (arch height, pillar height and width, mechanical characteristics), under the coupling effect of high temperature, on the ultimate bearing capacity of hyperbolic pillars. Our results indicate that arch height has a strong influence on pillar stress, while changes in pillar width and height are less significant. A stability evaluation method is proposed and tested on a case study in Inner Mongolia. Our theoretical results have practical significance for the promotion and application of SMFM.     

川南沐川地区宣威组底部铌-稀土多金属富集层富集规律、沉积环境与成矿模式

云南、贵州地区对晚二叠世宣威组底部Nb-REE多金属富集层的研究取得了重要进展,但其成因还有较大争议.为厘清沐川地区宣威组底部Nb-REE多金属富集层成因机制及富集规律,本研究开展了野外实地调查、矿物学、岩相古地理与岩石地球化学等系统性研究,探讨其物源、富集规律,建立了成矿模式.结果 表明,川南沐川地区宣威组底部Nb-...     

Sensitivity of the elastic anisotropy and seismic reflection amplitude of the Eagle Ford Shale to the presence of kerogen

The Eagle Ford Shale of Central and South Texas is currently of great interest for oil and gas exploration and production. Laboratory studies show that the Eagle Ford Shale is anisotropic, with a correlation between anisotropy and total organic carbon. Organic materials are usually more compliant than other minerals present in organic‐rich shales, and their shapes and distribution are usually anisotropic. This makes organic materials an important source of anisotropy in organic‐rich shales. Neglecting shale anisotropy may lead to incorrect estimates of rock and fluid properties derived from inversion of amplitude versus offset seismic data. Organic materials have a significant effect on the PP and PS reflection amplitudes from the Austin Chalk/Upper Eagle Ford interface, the Upper Eagle Ford/Lower Eagle Ford interface, and the Lower Eagle Ford/Buda Limestone interface. The higher kerogen content of the Lower Eagle Ford compared with that of the Upper Eagle Ford leads to a negative PP reflection amplitude that dims with offset, whereas the PS reflection coefficient increases in magnitude with increasing offset. The PP and PS reflection coefficients at the Austin Chalk/Upper Eagle Ford interface, the Upper Eagle Ford/Lower Eagle Ford interface, and the Lower Eagle Ford/Buda Limestone interface all increase in magnitude with increasing volume fraction of kerogen.     

Retrieval of super‐virtual refraction by cross‐correlation

Topography and severe variations of near‐surface layers lead to travel‐time perturbations for the events in seismic exploration. Usually, these perturbations could be estimated and eliminated by refraction technology. The virtual refraction method is a relatively new technique for retrieval of refraction information from seismic records contaminated by noise. Based on the virtual refraction, this paper proposes super‐virtual refraction interferometry by cross‐correlation to retrieve refraction wavefields by summing the cross‐correlation of raw refraction wavefields and virtual refraction wavefields over all receivers located outside the retrieved source and receiver pair. This method can enhance refraction signal gradually as the source–receiver offset decreases. For further enhancement of refracted waves, a scheme of hybrid virtual refraction wavefields is applied by stacking of correlation‐type and convolution‐type super‐virtual refractions. Our new method does not need any information about the near‐surface velocity model, which can solve the problem of directly unmeasured virtual refraction energy from the virtual source at the surface, and extend the acquisition aperture to its maximum extent in raw seismic records. It can also reduce random noise influence in raw seismic records effectively and improve refracted waves’ signal‐to‐noise ratio by a factor proportional to the square root of the number of receivers positioned at stationary‐phase points, based on the improvement of virtual refraction's signal‐to‐noise ratio. Using results from synthetic and field data, we show that our new method is effective to retrieve refraction information from raw seismic records and improve the accuracy of first‐arrival picks.