Statistical testing of a new testate amoeba‐based transfer function for water‐table depth reconstruction on ombrotrophic peatlands in north‐eastern Canada and Maine,United States

Proxy reconstructions of climatic parameters developed using transfer functions are central to the testing of many palaeoclimatic hypotheses on Holocene timescales. However, recent work shows that the mathematical models underpinning many existing transfer functions are susceptible to spatial autocorrelation, clustered training set design and the uneven sampling of environmental gradients. This may result in over‐optimistic performance statistics or, in extreme cases, a lack of predictive power. A new testate amoeba‐based transfer function is presented that fully incorporates the new recommended statistical tests to address these issues. Leave‐one‐out cross‐validation, the most commonly applied method in recent studies to assess model performance, produced over‐optimistic performance statistics for all models tested. However, the preferred model, developed using weighted averaging with tolerance downweighting, retained a predictive capacity equivalent to other published models even when less optimistic performance statistics were chosen. Application of the new statistical tests in the development of transfer functions provides a more thorough assessment of performance and greater confidence in reconstructions based on them. Only when the wider research community have sufficient confidence in transfer function‐based proxy reconstructions will they be commonly used in data comparison and palaeoclimate modelling studies of broader scientific relevance. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Groundwater isoscapes in a montane headwater catchment show dominance of well‐mixed storage

We conducted an integrated groundwater–surface water monitoring programme in a 3.2‐km² experimental catchment in the Scottish Highlands by sampling all springs, seepages, and wells in six, spatially extensive synoptic surveys over a 2‐year period. The catchment has been glaciated, with steep hillslopes and a flat valley bottom. There is around 70% glacial drift cover in lower areas. The solid geology, which outcrops at higher elevations, is granite and metamorphic schist. The springs and seepages generally occur at the contact between the solid geology and drift or at breaks of slopes in the valley bottom. Samples were analysed for stable isotopes, Gran alkalinity and electrical conductivity. Despite the surveys encompassing markedly different antecedent conditions, the isotopic composition of groundwater at each location exhibited limited temporal variability, resulting in a remarkable persistence of spatial patterns indicating well‐mixed shallow, groundwater stores. Moreover, line‐conditioned excess values derived from the isotope data indicated no evidence of fractionation affecting the groundwater, which suggests that most recharge occurs in winter. The alkalinity and electrical conductivity of groundwater reflected geological differences in the catchment, being highest where more weatherable calcareous rocks outcrop at higher altitudes in the catchment. Springs draining these areas also had the most variable isotope composition, which indicated that they have shorter residence times than the drift covered part of the catchment. The study showed that even in geologically heterogeneous upland catchments, groundwater can be characterized by a consistent isotopic composition, reflecting rapid mixing in the recharge zone. Our work, thus, emphasizes the critical role of groundwater in upland catchments and provides tracer data that can help constrain quantitative groundwater models.     

The Iceland 1986 GPS geodetic survey: tectonic goals and data processing results

Summary The 1986 GPS survey of Iceland aimed to: (1) establish geodetic control in the South Iceland Seismic Zone (SISZ), to study destructive earthquakes there, (2) measure a country-wide network to form the basis of a new first order national network. 51 points were surveyed, with 20–30 km spacings within the SISZ and 100 km spacings elsewhere. The data were processed using the Bernese GPS software Version 3. Analysis was difficult due to poor satellite geometry and short-period ionospheric variations. However, an ambiguity-fixed, ionosphere-free solution gave accuracies of 1–2 cm in the horizontal and 2–3 cm in the vertical for the SISZ network and an ambiguity-free, ionosphere-free solution yielded accuracies of about 5 cm for the country-wide network. An ionosphere-free solution for the total survey with ambiguities fixed for the SISZ network only gave marginal additional improvements over the two separate solutions. GPS surveying has continued annually in Iceland with measurements in South Iceland in 1989 and 1992 (Hackman 1991; Sigmundsson 1992) and in North Iceland in 1987, 1990 and 1992 (Jahn et al. 1992; Foulger et al. 1992).     

Environmental policy and regulation for oil exploration and shipping activities in the Barents Sea

The Barents Sea has one of the highest levels of biological production of all the world's oceans, and holds some of the largest fish stocks and concentrations of seabirds. Environmental conditions in the area make it particularly vulnerable to damage from human activities. Given the vulnerability of this ecosystem to the effects of human activity, and the fact that physical factors (e.g. reduced visibility, ice) increase risks due to oil exploitation and shipping activities, environmental authorities will work towards more stringent discharge limits and higher standards for emergency preparedness for both oil exploitation and shipping in the Barents Sea. The Norwegian Pollution Control Authority gives priority to preventive measures that can lower the probability of accidents and particular emphasis will be given to conditions attached to production licences and controls on activities in areas that have not yet been opened for petroleum activities. Within the Arctic Environmental Protection Strategy (the Rovaniemi-process), Norway has proposed that efforts should be made to improve the protection of Arctic marine areas, and further that a working group including representatives of all the Arctic countries should assess various legal instruments and possible measures, and make recommendations for action. Currently, no special international requirements apply to ships sailing in ice-infested waters, and the recommendations from the working group will therefore be of great importance in protecting the area from damage from shipping.     

Modelling of uranium and neptunium chemistry in a deep rock environment

According to the present concept for final storage of spent nuclear fuel in Sweden, the spent fuel, encapsulated in copper or copper/steel canisters, will be placed in tunnels in a deep rock formation. The canisters will be surrounded by compacted bentonite clay acting as a buffer material. In connection with a safety analysis of such a storage facility, the total solubility of certain elements (e.g., uranium) as well as the transport properties (e.g., retardation due to sorption on mineral surfaces) of the long-lived radionuclides released from the canister have to be predicted or measured. The chemical conditions, governing the solubility and speciation of trace elements encountered in and around the repository depend on interactions between the ground water and the engineering materials in the repository and a production of oxidants due to radiolysis in the spent fuel. In the present study the speciation and solubility of uranium and neptunium in a bentonite-ground water system and in ground waters with compositions measured at a site at äspö, SE Sweden, have been calculated. The calculations have been carried out using a recent version of the geochemical computer code PHREEQE and the database HATCHES 5.0. Predictions of the uranium and neptunium concentrations in the ground water in the vicinity of a damaged high level waste repository have also been performed. The uranium concentration in the water in the bentonite barrier is predicted to be of the same order of magnitude or lower than that found in some granitic ground waters. For neptunium the calculations are uncertain due to the small amount of experimentally determined thermodynamic data and few verifications under the conditions (pH - Eh - carbonate concentration) considered. The predicted concentrations (ca 10^–12 m, corresponds to ca 0.006 Bq/l) may be regarded as high, considering the high toxicity of neptunium and its long half-life.     

Impacts of climate variability and change on drought characteristics in the Niger River Basin,West Africa

West Africa has been afflicted by droughts since the declining rains of the 1970s. Therefore, this study examines the characteristics of drought over the Niger River Basin (NRB), investigates the influence of the drought on the river flow, and projects the impacts of future climate change on drought. A combination of observation data and regional climate simulations of past (1986–2005) and future climates (2046–2065 and 2081–2100) were analyzed. The standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index (SPEI) were used to characterize drought while the standardized runoff index (SRI) was used to quantify river flow. Results of the study show that the historical pattern of drought is consistent with previous studies over the Basin and most part of West Africa. RCA4 ensemble gives realistic simulations of the climatology of the Basin in the past climate. Generally, an increase in drought intensity and frequency are projected over NRB. The coupling between SRI and drought indices was very strong (P < 0.05). The dominant peaks can be classified into three distinct drought cycles with periods 1–2, 2–4, 4–8 years. These cycles may be associated with Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). River flow was highly sensitive to precipitation in the NRB and a 1–3 month lead time was found between drought indices and SRI. Under RCP4.5, changes in the SPEI drought frequency range from 1.8 (2046–2065) to 2.4 (2081–2100) month year^?1 while under RCP8.5, the change ranges from 2.2 (2046–2065) to 3.0 month year^?1 (2081–2100). Niger Middle sub-basin is likely to be mostly impacted in the future while the Upper Niger was projected to be least impacted. Results of this study may guide policymakers to evolve strategies to facilitate vulnerability assessment and adaptive capacity of the basin in order to minimize the negative impacts of climate change.     

Communicating landscape hydrology — the water cycle in a box

Physical models are a well‐established tool in education to strengthen hydrological understanding. They facilitate the straightforward visualization of hydrological processes and allow the communication of hydrological concepts, research and questions of general interest to the public. In order to visualize the water cycle in a landscape of postglacial sediments, in particular the subsurface part, a physical model was constructed. In two videos, (1) a detailed construction manual and (2) visualization examples of hydrological concepts and processes are presented. With our contribution, we like to encourage professionals in the field of hydrology to share methods and tools of knowledge transfer and communication of hydrological concepts. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Bacterial community succession in response to dissolved organic matter released from live jellyfish

Jellyfish blooms have increased worldwide, and the outbreaks of jellyfish population not only affect the food web structures via voracious predation but also play an important role in the dynamics of nutrients and oxygen in planktonic food webs. However, it remains unclear whether specific carbon compounds released through jellyfish metabolic processes have the potential to shape bacterial community composition. Therefore, in this study, we aimed to investigate the compositional succession of the bacterioplankton community in response to the dissolved organic matter (DOM) released by the live Scyphomedusae Cyanea lamarckii and Chrysaora hysoscella collected from Helgoland Roads of the North Sea. The bacterial community was significantly stimulated by the DOM released form live jellyfish and different dominant phylotypes were observed for these two Scyphomedusae species. Furthermore, the bacterial community structures in the different DOM sources, jellyfish-incubated media, Kabeltonne seawater, and artificial seawater (DOM-free) were significantly different, as revealed by automated ribosomal intergenic spacer analysis fingerprints. Catalyzed reporter deposition fluorescence in situ hybridization (CARD-FISH) revealed a rapid species-specific shift in bacterial community composition. Gammaproteobacteria dominated the community instead of the Bacteroidetes community for C. lamarckii, whereas Gammaproteobacteria and Bacteroidetes dominated the community for C. hysoscella. The significant differences in the bacterial community composition and succession indicate that the components of the DOM released by jellyfish might differ with jellyfish species.