Flood magnification on the River Rhine

Flooding on the German Rhine during the 20th century was tested for trends and assessed to identify causal mechanisms driving worsening of flooding. A review of previous research outlines the range of impacts due to climate change, land‐use shifts, and river regulation. Analysis of hydrologic data, especially of the long record at Cologne, documents statistically significant increases in both flood magnitudes and frequencies. Specific‐gauge analysis, which isolates the effects of channel modification, documents that 20th century river engineering has caused little of the observed increase in flooding on the German Rhine. Precipitation records from the Rhine basin confirm that flood magnification has been driven by upstream factors, including an increase in flood‐producing precipitation of roughly 25% during the past 100 years and increases in runoff yields. In addition, agricultural land‐use records suggest that flood magnification can be partially explained by 20th century trends documenting intensification and industrialization of German agriculture. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Orbital-scale record of the late Cenomanian–Turonian oceanic anoxic event (OAE-2) in the Tarfaya Basin (Morocco)

High sedimentation rates (up to 12 cm/kyear) of laminated organic carbon-rich biogenic limestones in the Tarfaya Basin provide an unusually high (millennial) resolution record of the late Cenomanian oceanic anoxic event (OAE-2). The global positive carbon-isotope excursion across the Cenomanian–Turonian corresponds to 11 light/dark sedimentary cycles. We interpret these cycles as a response to orbital obliquity variation and estimate the duration of the complete excursion as 440 kyear or one long eccentricity cycle. On this timescale, the main increase in ¹³C values occurred over a short time interval of less than 20 kyear in the late Cenomanian and reached a first maximum approximately 15 kyear prior to the bulk (mainly coccoliths) ¹⁸O-derived sea surface maximum temperature that occurs coeval to the extinction of Rotalipora cushmani. Organic carbon-accumulation rates follow obliquity cycles, reaching a maximum approximately 10 kyear after the last occurrence of R. cushmani, then slowly decreasing during the early Turonian. Thus, the maximum temperature and the maximum organic carbon accumulation in the Tarfaya Basin lagged by at least 15 kyear behind the global carbon-isotope shift and a proposed reduction of atmospheric CO₂ content. The climate change across the Cenomanian/Turonian boundary probably occurred independent of CO₂ levels and may have been controlled by different greenhouse gases (water vapour and methane) and changes in ocean circulation (i.e., opening of the Equatorial Atlantic gateway)     

The economics of decarbonizing the energy system—results and insights from the RECIPE model intercomparison

This paper synthesizes the results from the model intercomparison exercise among regionalized global energy-economy models conducted in the context of the RECIPE project. The economic adjustment effects of long-term climate policy are investigated based on the cross-comparison of the intertemporal optimization models ReMIND-R and WITCH as well as the recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model IMACLIM-R. A number of robust findings emerge. If the international community takes immediate action to mitigate climate change, the costs of stabilizing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations at 450?ppm (roughly 530?C550?ppm-e) discounted at 3% are estimated to be 1.4% or lower of global consumption over the twenty-first century. Second best settings with either a delay in climate policy or restrictions to the deployment of low-carbon technologies can result in substantial increases of mitigation costs. A delay of global climate policy until 2030 would render the 450?ppm target unachievable. Renewables and CCS are found to be the most critical mitigation technologies, and all models project a rapid switch of investments away from freely emitting energy conversion technologies towards renewables, CCS and nuclear. Concerning end use sectors, the models consistently show an almost full scale decarbonization of the electricity sector by the middle of the twenty-first century, while the decarbonization of non-electric energy demand, in particular in the transport sector remains incomplete in all mitigation scenarios. The results suggest that assumptions about low-carbon alternatives for non-electric energy demand are of key importance for the costs and achievability of very low stabilization scenarios.     

Spatial and temporal temperature trends in Nigeria, 1901–2000

Trends and periodicity analyses can provide information on climate variability inherent in a particular variable. In this study, trend tests and spectral analysis are used to examine the existence of trends and cycles in temperature series (1901–2000) of Nigeria. Periods 1901–1929 and 1942–1980 exhibited cooling trends while 1930–1941 and 1981–2000 showed warming trends. The warmest years in Nigeria were 1941, 1935, 1931 and 1987. The coldest years were 1929, 1975, 1925 and 1974. Whereas no significant trends were detected for 1901–1930 period, the standard period 1931–1960 was marked by significant cooling while 1961–1990 was marked with significant warming. Annual temperature has risen by 0.03?°C/decade during the last century. The overall warming was mostly confined to the south of 12°N especially during April and June. Changes in minimum temperature are higher than that of maximum temperature. The quasi-biennial oscillation was found in annual data for all the six zones with periods of about 2–4?years. Nigeria landscape is under strong North Atlantic Oscillation influence in dry season and under ENSO influence during wet season. Annual temperature series was also found to exhibit significant negative correlation with SOI.     

Coupled groundwater flow and heat transport simulation for estimating transient aquifer–stream exchange at the lowland River Spree (Germany)

Subsurface flow and heat transport near Freienbrink, NE Germany, was simulated in order to study groundwater–surface water exchange between a floodplains aquifer and a section of the lowland River Spree and an adjacent oxbow. Groundwater exfiltration was the dominant process, and only fast surface water level rises resulted in temporary infiltration into the aquifer. The main groundwater flow paths are identified based on a 3D groundwater flow model. To estimate mass fluxes across the aquifer–surface water interfaces, a 2D flow and heat transport modelling approach along a transect of 12 piezometers was performed. Results of steady‐state and transient water level simulations show an overall high accuracy with a Spearman coefficient ρ = 0.9996 and root mean square error (RMSE) = 0.008 m. Based on small groundwater flow velocities of about 10^?7 to 10^?6 ms^?1, mean groundwater exfiltration rates of 233 l m^?2 d^?1 are calculated. Short periods of surface water infiltration into the aquifer do not exceed 10 days, and the infiltration rates are in the same range. The heat transport was modelled with slightly less accuracy (ρ = 0.8359 and RMSE = 0.34 °C). In contrast to the predominant groundwater exfiltration, surface water temperatures determine the calculated temperatures in the upper aquifer below both surface water bodies down to 10 m during the whole simulation period. These findings emphasize prevailing of heat conduction over advection in the upper aquifer zones, which seems to be typical for lowland streams with sandy aquifer materials and low hydraulic gradients. Moreover, this study shows the potential of coupled numerical flow and heat transport modelling to understand groundwater–surface water exchange processes in detail. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Characterizing hydrological processes within kettle holes using stable water isotopes in the Uckermark of northern Brandenburg,Germany

Understanding the hydrologic connectivity between kettle holes and shallow groundwater, particularly in reaction to the highly variable local meteorological conditions, is of paramount importance for tracing water in a hydro(geo)logically complex landscape and thus for integrated water resource management. This article is aimed at identifying the dominant hydrological processes affecting the kettle holes' water balance and their interactions with the shallow groundwater domain in the Uckermark region, located in the north-east of Germany. For this reason, based on the stable isotopes of oxygen (δ¹⁸O ) and hydrogen (δ²H ), an isotopic mass balance model was employed to compute the evaporative loss of water from the kettle holes from February to August 2017. Results demonstrated that shallow groundwater inflow may play the pivotal role in the processes taking part in the hydrology of the kettle holes in the Uckermark region. Based on the calculated evaporation/inflow (E/I) ratios, most of the kettle holes (86.7%) were ascertained to have a partially open, flow-through-dominated system. Moreover, we identified an inverse correlation between E/I ratios and the altitudes of the kettle holes. The same holds for electrical conductivity (EC) and the altitudes of the kettle holes. In accordance with the findings obtained from this study, a conceptual model explaining the interaction between the shallow groundwater and the kettle holes of Uckermark was developed. The model exhibited that across the highest altitudes, the recharge kettle holes are dominant, where a lower ratio of E/I and a lower EC was detected. By contrast, the lowest topographical depressions represent the discharge kettle holes, where a higher ratio of E/I and EC could be identified. The kettle holes existing in between were categorized as flow-through kettle holes through which the recharge takes place from one side and discharge from the other side.     

Investigating Groundwater‐Lake Interactions by Hydraulic Heads and a Water Balance

Discharge of groundwater into lakes (lacustrine groundwater discharge, LGD) can play a major role in water balances of lakes. Unfortunately, studies often neglect this input path because of methodological difficulties in its determination. Direct measurements of LGD are labor‐consuming and prone to error. The present study uses both spatially variable hydraulic‐head data and meteorological data to estimate groundwater input by LGD and lake water output through infiltration. The study sites are two shallow, groundwater‐fed lakes without any surface inflows or outflows. Horizontally interpolated groundwater heads were combined with lake water levels to obtain vertical hydraulic gradients between the aquifer and the lake, which are separated by a thick layer of lake bed sediment which has a much lower hydraulic conductivity than the underlying aquifer. By fitting the hydraulic gradient to the results of a simple mass balance and considering the process of clogging, we were able to estimate the hydraulic conductivity of the lake bed sediments. We calculated groundwater inputs by LGD and lake water outputs by infiltration on an annual basis. Although our method requires several assumptions, the results are reasonable and provide useful information about the exchange between the aquifer and the lake, which can, for example, be used for the calculation of nutrient mass balances.     

Chemical evolution in the high arsenic groundwater of the Huhhot basin (Inner Mongolia,PR China) and its difference from the western Bengal basin (India)

Elevated As concentrations in groundwater of the Huhhot basin (HB), Inner Mongolia, China, and the western Bengal basin (WBB), India, have been known for decades. However, few studies have been performed to comprehend the processes controlling overall groundwater chemistry in the HB. In this study, the controls on solute chemistry in the HB have been interpreted and compared with the well-studied WBB, which has a very different climate, physiography, lithology, and aquifer characteristics than the HB. In general, there are marked differences in solute chemistry between HB and WBB groundwaters. Stable isotopic signatures indicate meteoric recharge in the HB in a colder climate, distant from the source of moisture, in comparison to the warm, humid WBB. The major-ion composition of the moderately reducing HB groundwater is dominated by a mixed-ion (Ca–Na–HCO₃–Cl) hydrochemical facies with an evolutionary trend along the regional hydraulic gradient. Molar ratios and thermodynamic calculations show that HB groundwater has not been affected by cation exchange, but is dominated by weathering of feldspars (allitization) and equilibrium with gibbsite and anorthite. Mineral weathering and mobilization of As could occur as recharging water flows through fractured, argillaceous, metamorphic or volcanic rocks in the adjoining mountain-front areas, and deposits solutes near the center of the basin. In contrast, WBB groundwater is Ca–HCO₃-dominated, indicative of calcite weathering, with some cation exchange and silicate weathering (monosiallitization).     

Origin and dynamics of groundwater salinity in the alluvial plains of western Delhi and adjacent territories of Haryana State,India

Groundwater salinity is a widespread problem and a challenge to water resources management. It is an increasing concern in the alluvial plains of Delhi and neighbouring Haryana state as well as a risk for agricultural production water supply and sustainable development. This study aims to identify potential sources of dissolved salts and the driving mechanisms of salinity ingress in the shallow aquifer. It combines a comprehensive review of environmental conditions and the analysis of groundwater samples from 25 sampling points. Major ions are analysed to describe the composition and distribution of saline groundwater and dissolution/precipitation dynamics. Density stratification and local upconing of saline waters were identified by multilevel monitoring and temperature logging. Bromide–chloride ratios hold information on the formation of saline waters, and nitrate is used as an indicator for anthropogenic influences. In addition, stable isotope analysis helps to identify evaporation and to better understand recharge processes and mixing dynamics in the study region. The results lead to the conclusion that surface water and groundwater influx into the poorly drained semiarid basin naturally results in the accumulation of salts in soil, sediments and groundwater. Human‐induced changes of environmental conditions, especially the implementation of traditional canal and modern groundwater irrigation, have augmented evapotranspiration and led to waterlogging in large areas. In addition, water‐level fluctuations and perturbation of the natural hydraulic equilibrium favour the mobilisation of salts from salt stores in the unsaturated zone and deeper aquifer sections. The holistic approach of this study demonstrates the importance of various salinity mechanisms and provides new insights into the interference of natural and anthropogenic influences. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.