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Kristie?L.?EbiEmail author Jessica?Hartman Nathan?Chan John?Mcconnell Michael?Schlesinger John?Weyant 《Climatic change》2005,73(3):375-393
Climate is one factor that determines the potential range of malaria. As such, climate change may work with or against efforts
to bring malaria under control. We developed a model of future climate suitability for stable Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in Zimbabwe. Current climate suitability for stable malaria transmission was based on the MARA/ARMA
model of climatic constraints on the survival and development of the Anopheles vector and the Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasite. We explored potential future geographic distributions of malaria using 16 projections of climate in 2100.
The results suggest that, assuming no future human-imposed constraints on malaria transmission, changes in temperature and
precipitation could alter the geographic distribution of malaria in Zimbabwe, with previously unsuitable areas of dense human
population becoming suitable for transmission. Among all scenarios, the highlands become more suitable for transmission, while
the lowveld and areas with low precipitation show varying degrees of change, depending on climate sensitivity and greenhouse
gas emission stabilization scenarios, and depending on the general circulation model used. The methods employed can be used
within or across other African countries. 相似文献
23.
长江下游仪征河段处于枯季潮流界的上边界,揭示其汊道分流属性及滩槽联动演变机制,对河势控制工程及深水航道工程实践具有重要意义.本研究收集了1955—2021年水文泥沙及地形等资料,在汊道分流关系及调整成因上:世业洲右汊的分流属性为枯水倾向型汊道,即低流量时期分流比大于高流量时期;1959—2021年期间,世业洲右汊分流比经历了“稳定-下降-上升”的调整过程,上游河段滩槽格局调整及流域来沙减少引起的汊道间不均衡冲刷是分流关系调整的主因;流域流量过程调整、河道崩岸等综合影响引起1959—2017年期间世业洲右汊分流比为减小态势,航道工程实施起到了调控汊道关系的功能,世业洲右汊分流比为增加态势.在滩槽联动演变关系上:仪征河段进口段以展宽为主,世业洲左汊展宽程度大于右汊,左汊河床形态变化与进口段滩槽形态的一致性关系优于右汊,即上游进口段滩槽演变、流域来沙量减少等综合作用会加速了左汊发展;2015年南京以下12.5 m深水航道二期工程建设以来,工程区域淤积且洲体完整性增强,且深槽冲刷及河槽容积增大,表明航道工程已实现汊道分流关系及滩槽调控的功能. 相似文献
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The main purpose of this paper is to describe ways to improve the microstructure of expansive soil by adding nanomaterials. Mechanical tests were done to explore the changes in shear strength and compression index of expansive soil that was modified by adding different amounts of two kinds of nanomaterials (nano-alumina and nano-silica). The test results show that adding 1.2% nano-alumina and about 2% nano-silica to expansive soil provides the optimal compression index. The test results show that adding 1.2% nano-alumina and about 1.5% nano-silica to expansive soil provides the optimal unconfined compression stress. Scanning electron microscopy of the microstructure of expansive soil modified by nanomaterials provided a deeper understanding of the effects of nanomaterials on improving expansive soil. 相似文献
27.
Chris?HarrisEmail authorView authors OrcID profile Kwenidyn?Mulder Saheli?Sarkar Benjamin?Whitehead Sherissa?Roopnarain 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2018,173(4):30
This paper investigates the origin of low-δ18O quartz porphyry dykes associated with the 144–133 Ma Koegel Fontein Igneous Complex, which was intruded during the initial phase of breakup of Africa and South America. The 25-km diameter Rietpoort Granite is the largest and youngest phase of activity, and is roofed by a 10-km diameter pendant of gneiss. Quartz porphyry (QP) dykes, up to 15 m in width, strike NW–SE across the complex. The QP dykes that intruded outside the granite have similar quartz phenocryst δ18O values (average 8.0‰, ± 0.7, n?=?33) to the granite (average 8.3?±?1.0, n?=?7). The QP dykes that intruded the roof pendant have quartz phenocrysts with more variable δ18O values (average 1.6‰, ± 2.1, n?=?55). In some cases quartz phenocrysts have δ18O values as low as ? 2.5‰. The variation in δ18O value within the quartz crystal population of individual dykes is small relative to the overall range, and core and rim material from individual quartz phenocrysts in three samples are identical within error. There is no evidence that quartz phenocryst δ18O values have been affected by fluid–rock interaction. Based on a ?quartz?magma value of 0.6‰, magma δ18O values must have been as low as ? 3.1‰. Samples collected along the length of the two main QP dykes that traverse the roof pendant have quartz phenocryst δ18O values that range from +?1.1 to +?4.6‰, and ? 2.3 to +?5.6‰, respectively. These δ18O values correlate negatively (r = ? 0.96) with initial 87Sr/86Sr, which can be explained by the event that lowered δ18O values of the source being older than the dykes. We suggest that the QP dykes were fed by magma produced by partial melting of gneiss, which had been variably altered at high temperature by 18O-depleted meteoric water during global glaciation at ~?550 Ma. The early melts had variable δ18O value but as melt pockets interconnected during melting, the δ18O values approached that of average gneiss. Variable quartz phenocryst δ18O values in the same dyke can be explained by vertical emplacement, at variable rates of ascent along the dyke. The lateral variation in quartz, and hence magma δ18O value at a particular point along a single dyke would depend on the rate of ascent of magma at that point along the dyke, and the ‘age’ of the particular magma batch. 相似文献
28.
Renata??opjakováEmail authorView authors OrcID profile Jana?Kotková 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2018,173(12):106
Multiphase solid inclusions in minerals formed at ultra-high-pressure (UHP) provide evidence for the presence of fluids during deep subduction. This study focuses on barian mica, which is a common phase in multiphase solid inclusions enclosed in garnet from mantle-derived UHP garnet peridotites in the Saxothuringian basement of the northern Bohemian Massif. The documented compositional variability and substitution trends provide constraints on crystallization medium of the barian mica and allow making inferences on its source. Barian mica in the multiphase solid inclusions belongs to trioctahedral micas and represents a solid solution of phlogopite KMg3(Si3Al)O10(OH)2, kinoshitalite BaMg3(Al2Si2)O10(OH)2 and ferrokinoshitalite BaFe3(Al2Si2)O10(OH)2. In addition to Ba (0.24–0.67 apfu), mica is significantly enriched in Mg (XMg ~ 0.85 to 0.95), Cr (0.03–0.43 apfu) and Cl (0.04–0.34 apfu). The substitution vector involving Ba in the I-site which describes the observed chemical variability can be expressed as BaFeIVAlClK?1Mg?1Si?1(OH)?1. A minor amount of Cr and VIAl enters octahedral sites following a substitution vector VI(Cr,Al)2□VI(Mg,Fe)?3 towards chromphyllite and muscovite. As demonstrated by variable Ba and Cl contents positively correlating with Fe, barian mica composition is partly controlled by its crystal structure. Textural evidence shows that barian mica, together with other minerals in multiphase solid inclusions, crystallized from fluids trapped during garnet growth. The unusual chemical composition of mica reflects the mixing of two distinct sources: (1) an internal source, i.e. the host peridotite and its garnet, providing Mg, Fe, Al, Cr, and (2) an external source, represented by crustal-derived subduction-zone fluids supplying Ba, K and Cl. At UHP–UHT conditions recorded by the associated diamond-bearing metasediments (c. 1100 °C and 4.5 GPa) located above the second critical point in the pelitic system, the produced subduction-zone fluids transporting the elements into the overlying mantle wedge had a solute-rich composition with properties of a hydrous melt. The occurrence of barian mica with a specific chemistry in barium-poor mantle rocks demonstrates the importance of its thorough chemical characterization. 相似文献
29.
Aude?ValadeEmail authorView authors OrcID profile Sebastiaan?Luyssaert Patrick?Vallet Sylvestre?Njakou Djomo Ingride?Jesus Van Der Kellen Valentin?Bellassen 《Carbon balance and management》2018,13(1):26
Background
Concern about climate change has motivated France to reduce its reliance on fossil fuel by setting targets for increased biomass-based renewable energy production. This study quantifies the carbon costs and benefits for the French forestry sector in meeting these targets. A forest growth and harvest simulator was developed for French forests using recent forest inventory data, and the wood-use chain was reconstructed from national wood product statistics. We then projected wood production, bioenergy production, and carbon balance for three realistic intensification scenarios and a business-as-usual scenario. These intensification scenarios targeted either overstocked, harvest-delayed or currently actively managed stands.Results
All three intensification strategies produced 11.6–12.4 million tonnes of oil equivalent per year of wood-based energy by 2026, which corresponds to the target assigned to French wood-energy to meet the EU 2020 renewable energy target. Sustaining this level past 2026 will be challenging, let alone further increasing it. Although energy production targets can be reached, the management intensification required will degrade the near-term carbon balance of the forestry sector, compared to continuing present-day management. Even for the best-performing intensification strategy, i.e., reducing the harvest diameter of actively managed stands, the carbon benefits would only become apparent after 2040. The carbon balance of a strategy putting abandoned forests back into production would only break even by 2055; the carbon balance from increasing thinning in managed but untended stands would not break even within the studied time periods, i.e. 2015–2045 and 2046–2100. Owing to the temporal dynamics in the components of the carbon balance, i.e., the biomass stock in the forest, the carbon stock in wood products, and substitution benefits, the merit order of the examined strategies varies over time.Conclusions
No single solution was found to improve the carbon balance of the forestry sector by 2040 in a way that also met energy targets. We therefore searched for the intensification scenario that produces energy at the lowest carbon cost. Reducing rotation time of actively managed stands is slightly more efficient than targeting harvest-delayed stands, but in both cases, each unit of energy produced has a carbon cost that only turns into a benefit between 2060 and 2080.30.