Arctic sea-ice motion and its relation to pressure field

Daily Arctic sea-ice motion maps during the winter seasons (December–March) from December 1988 to March 2003 derived from NSCAT, QuikSCAT, SSM/I, and AMSRE data by a wavelet analysis method have been merged with those derived from buoy data. These merged sea-ice motion data have been used to study the circulation regimes and winter-to-winter variability of Arctic sea-ice motion. The relation between sea-ice motion and the pressure field in the Arctic Ocean was also studied by applying Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to the monthly merged sea-ice motion data and the monthly pressure field data from IABP. The mean Arctic sea-ice motion map of the 15 winter seasons has two distinct features: the Beaufort Gyre and a cyclonic circulation system in the Eurasian Basin, which moves ice from the Laptev Sea to Fram Strait. The strengths and sizes of the two features change from one winter season to another. Seasons with a strong or normal Beaufort Gyre alternate with seasons with a weak or no Beaufort Gyre every one to three seasons. The principal components of the first two modes of PCA of the monthly sea-ice motion are closely correlated with their counterparts of the monthly pressure field in the Arctic Ocean. The mode-one components of these two anomalies alternate between anticyclonic and cyclonic circulation systems. The correlation between Arctic Oscillation indexes and the principal components of the first mode of PCA of the monthly Arctic sea-ice motion is low but statistically significant.     

Sensitivity of the regional climate model RegCM4.2 to planetary boundary layer parameterisation

This study investigates the performance of two planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterisations in the regional climate model RegCM4.2 with specific focus on the recently implemented prognostic turbulent kinetic energy parameterisation scheme: the University of Washington (UW) scheme. When compared with the default Holtslag scheme, the UW scheme, in the 10-year experiments over the European domain, shows a substantial cooling. It reduces winter warm bias over the north-eastern Europe by 2 °C and reduces summer warm bias over central Europe by 3 °C. A part of the detected cooling is ascribed to a general reduction in lower tropospheric eddy heat diffusivity with the UW scheme. While differences in temperature tendency due to PBL schemes are mostly localized to the lower troposphere, the schemes show a much higher diversity in how vertical turbulent mixing of the water vapour mixing ratio is governed. Differences in the water vapour mixing ratio tendency due to the PBL scheme are present almost throughout the troposphere. However, they alone cannot explain the overall water vapour mixing ratio profiles, suggesting strong interaction between the PBL and other model parameterisations. An additional 18-member ensemble with the UW scheme is made, where two formulations of the master turbulent length scale in unstable conditions are tested and unconstrained parameters associated with (a) the evaporative enhancement of the cloud-top entrainment and (b) the formulation of the master turbulent length scale in stable conditions are systematically perturbed. These experiments suggest that the master turbulent length scale in the UW scheme could be further refined in the current implementation in the RegCM model. It was also found that the UW scheme is less sensitive to the variations of the other two selected unconstrained parameters, supporting the choice of these parameters in the default formulation of the UW scheme.     

Response to comment by Keith Beven on “Equifinality of formal (DREAM) and informal (GLUE) Bayesian approaches in hydrologic modeling?”

In recent years, a strong debate has emerged in the hydrologic literature regarding what constitutes an appropriate framework for uncertainty estimation. Particularly, there is strong disagreement whether an uncertainty framework should have its roots within a proper statistical (Bayesian) context, or whether such a framework should be based on a different philosophy and implement informal measures and weaker inference to summarize parameter and predictive distributions. In this paper, we compare a formal Bayesian approach using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) with generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) for assessing uncertainty in conceptual watershed modeling. Our formal Bayesian approach is implemented using the recently developed differential evolution adaptive metropolis (DREAM) MCMC scheme with a likelihood function that explicitly considers model structural, input and parameter uncertainty. Our results demonstrate that DREAM and GLUE can generate very similar estimates of total streamflow uncertainty. This suggests that formal and informal Bayesian approaches have more common ground than the hydrologic literature and ongoing debate might suggest. The main advantage of formal approaches is, however, that they attempt to disentangle the effect of forcing, parameter and model structural error on total predictive uncertainty. This is key to improving hydrologic theory and to better understand and predict the flow of water through catchments.     

On the estimation of accuracy for global models of gravitational field of the earth

The methods and techniques for estimating the accuracy of global models of the Earth’s gravity field in the form of spherical harmonic expansion of the geopotential are analyzed. Various methods for obtaining the a priori and a posteriori estimates for the accuracy are considered and classified. The application of different approaches is illustrated by numerical examples for nine models, including those recently developed using the modern methods of space geodesy. The basic requirements for the database and software for estimating the accuracy are formulated.     

Tibetan immigrants in India

"This paper documents the current evidence of the state of the Tibetan society in India with special reference to the trends in social transformation, livelihood patterns and cultural adaptation to a geographically alien environment....Three-and-a-half decades of living in India [have] demonstrated how a culture group can survive by carving out ecological niches in ethnically segregated social space and yet adapt to a new cultural environment without losing its identity."     

Effects of an ecological conservation and restoration project in the Three-River Source Region,China

The first-stage of an ecological conservation and restoration project in the Three-River Source Region (TRSR), China, has been in progress for eight years. However, because the ecological effects of this project remain unknown, decision making for future project implementation is hindered. Thus, in this study, we developed an index system to evaluate the effects of the ecological restoration project, by integrating field observations, remote sensing, and process-based models. Effects were assessed using trend analyses of ecosystem structures and services. Results showed positive trends in the TRSR since the beginning of the project, but not yet a return to the optima of the 1970s. Specifically, while continued degradation in grassland has been initially contained, results are still far from the desired objective, ‘grassland coverage increasing by an average of 20%–40%’. In contrast, wetlands and water bodies have generally been restored, while the water conservation and water supply capacity of watersheds have increased. Indeed, the volume of water conservation achieved in the project meets the objective of a 1.32 billion m³ increase. The effects of ecological restoration inside project regions was more significant than outside, and, in addition to climate change projects, we concluded that the implementation of ecological conservation and restoration projects has substantially contributed to vegetation restoration. Nevertheless, the degradation of grasslands has not been fundamentally reversed, and to date the project has not prevented increasing soil erosion. In sum, the effects and challenges of this first-stage project highlight the necessity of continuous and long-term ecosystem conservation efforts in this region.     

Aquatic surface microlayer contamination in chesapeake bay

The aquatic surface microlayer (SMIC), 50 μm thick, serves as a concentration point for metal and organic contaminants that have low water solubility or are associated with floatable particles. Also, the eggs and larvae of many fish and shellfish species float on, or come in contact with, the water surface throughout their early development. The objectives of this study were (1) to determine the present degree of aquatic surface microlayer pollution at selected sites in Chesapeake Bay, and (2) to provide a preliminary evaluation of sources contributing to any observed contamination.Twelve stations located in urban bays, major rivers, and the north central bay were sampled three times, each at 5-day intervals during May 1986. Samples of 1.4–4.1 each were collected from the upper 30–60-μm water surface (surface microlayer, SMIC) using a Teflon-coated rotating drum microlayer sampler. One sample of subsurface water was collected in the central bay.At all stations, concentrations of metals, alkanes, and aromatic hydrocarbons in the SMIC were high compared with one bulk-water sample and with typical concentrations in water of Chesapeake Bay and elsewhere. SMIC contamination varied greatly among the three sampling times, but high mean contaminant levels (total polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, 1.9–6.2 μg 1⁻¹; Pb, 4.9–24 μg 1⁻¹; Cu, 4–16 μg 1⁻¹; and Zn, 34–59 μg 1⁻¹) were found at the upper Potomac and northern bay sites. Three separate areas were identified on the basis of relative concentrations of different aromatic hydrocarbons in SMIC samples - the northern bay, the Potomac River, and the cleaner southern and eastern portions of the sampling area.Suspected sources of surface contamination include gasoline and diesel fuel combustion, coal combustion, and petroleum product releases. Concentrations of metals and hydrocarbons, at approximately half the stations sampled, are sufficient to pose a threat to the reproductive stages of some fish and shellfish. Sampling and analysis of the surface microlayer provides a sensitive tool for source identification and monitoring of potentially harmful aquatic pollution.     

The Role of History-Dependent Rheology in Plate Boundary Lubrication for Generating One-Sided Subduction

We have developed a two-dimensional dynamical model of asymmetric subduction integrated into the mantle convection without imposed plate velocities. In this model we consider that weak oceanic crust behaves as a lubricator on the thrust fault at the plate boundary. We introduce a rheological layer that depends on the history of the past fracture to simulate the effect of the oceanic crust. The thickness of this layer is set to be as thin as the Earth's oceanic crust. To treat 1-kilometer scale structure at the plate boundary in the 1000-kilometer scale mantle convection calculation, we introduce a new numerical method to solve the hydrodynamic equations using a couple of uniform and nonuniform grids of control volumes. Using our developed models, we have systematically investigated effects of basic rheological parameters that determine the deformation strength of the lithosphere and the oceanic crust on the development of the subducted slab, with a focus on the plate motion controlling mechanism. In our model the plate subduction is produced when the friction coefficient (0.004–0.008) of the modeled oceanic crust and the maximum strength (400 MPa) of the lithosphere are in plausible range inferred from the observations on the plate driving forces and the plate deformation, and the rheology experiments. In this range of the plate strength, yielding induces the plate bending. In this case the speed of plate motion is controlled more by viscosity layering of the underlying mantle than by the plate strength. To examine the setting of the overriding plate, we also consider the two end-member cases in which the overriding plate is fixed or freely-movable. In the case of the freely-movable overriding plate, the trench motion considerably changes the dip angle of the deep slab. Especially in the case with a shallow-angle plate boundary, retrograde slab motion occurs to generate a shallow-angle deep slab.     

Paleomagnetic results from Late Carboniferous to Early Permian rocks in the northern Qiangtang terrane,Tibet, China,and their tectonic implications

Results of a systematic paleomagnetic study are reported based on Late Carboniferous to Early Permian sedimentary rocks on the north slope of the Tanggula Mountains,in the northern Qiangtang terrane(NQT),Tibet,China.Data revealed that magnetic minerals in limestone samples from the Zarigen Formation(CP^z)are primarily composed of magnetite,while those in sandstone samples from the Nuoribagaribao Formation(Pnr)are dominated by hematite alone,or hematite and magnetite in combination.Progressive thermal,or alternating field,demagnetization allowed us to isolate a stable high temperature component(HTC)in 127 specimens from 16 sites which successfully passed the conglomerate test,consistent with primary remnance.The tilt-corrected mean direction for Late Carboniferous to Early Permian rocks in the northern Qiangtang terrane is D_s=30.2°,I_s=-40.9°,k_s=269.0,a_(95)=2.3°,N=16,which yields a corresponding paleomagnetic pole at 25.7°N,241.5°E(dp/dm=2.8°/1.7°),and a paleolatitude of 23.4°S.Our results,together with previously reported paleomagnetic data,indicate that:(1)the NQT in Tibet,China,was located at a low latitude in the southern hemisphere,and may have belonged to the northern margin of Gondwana during the Late Carboniferous to Early Permian;(2)the Paleo-Tethys Ocean was large during the Late Carboniferous to Early Permian,and(3)the NQT subsequently moved rapidly northwards,perhaps related to the fact that the Paleo-Tethys Ocean was rapidly contracting from the Late Permian to Late Triassic while the Bangong Lake-Nujiang Ocean,the northern branch of the Neo-Tethys Ocean,expanded rapidly during this time.     

Experimental stream acidification — the influence of sediment and streambed vegetation

An acidification experiment was conducted on a small stream in the Loch Ard area of central Scotland. The stream was chosen because of its large, flow related, variation in pH (5.9-4.0). Two acid additions were made to approximately pH 3.5–3.7. The results indicated a strong correlation between labile aluminium and hydrogen, and a noticeable hysteresis in the response of calcium and hydrogen. It is hypothesised that divalent cation response is a result of ion-exchange mechanisms involving the streambed vegetation, with aluminium release resulting primarily from exchange reactions with streambed sediment stores. Data from a program of stream spot sampling have been analysed in an attempt to elucidate the contribution of different sources of aluminium under different flow conditions. Streambed sources of aluminium contribute significantly under low flow conditions; however, at high flow, additional sources of aluminium must contribute to match observed streamwater chemistry.