Quantitative multi-risk analysis for natural hazards: a framework for multi-risk modelling

This paper introduces a generic framework for multi-risk modelling developed in the project ‘Regional RiskScape’ by the Research Organizations GNS Science and the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Ltd. (NIWA) in New Zealand. Our goal was to develop a generic technology for modelling risks from different natural hazards and for various elements at risk. The technical framework is not dependent on the specific nature of the individual hazard nor the vulnerability and the type of the individual assets. Based on this generic framework, a software prototype has been developed, which is capable of ‘plugging in’ various natural hazards and assets without reconfiguring or adapting the generic software framework. To achieve that, we developed a set of standards for treating the fundamental components of a risk model: hazards, assets (elements at risk) and vulnerability models (or fragility functions). Thus, the developed prototype system is able to accommodate any hazard, asset or fragility model, which is provided to the system according to that standard. The software prototype was tested by modelling earthquake, volcanic ashfall, flood, wind, and tsunami risks for several urban centres and small communities in New Zealand.     

Book reviews

APPLIED GEOGRAPHY: Issues, Questions and Concerns (Geo Journal Library Vol. 15) edited by M. S. Kenzer. 16 × 24 cm, x and 210 pages. Kluwer: Dordrecht 1989 (ISBN 0 7923 04381).

WINE AND THE VINE: An Historical Geography of Viticulture and the Wine Trade by T. Unwin. 16 × 24 cm, xvi and 409 pages. Routledge: London 1991 (ISBN 0 415 13120 6) $A155.00 (hard); distributed by The Law Book Co.

WATERFRONT SYDNEY 1860–1920 by G. Aplin and J. Storey. 26 × 18 cm. 144 pages. Allen & Unwin: Sydney 1991 (first published 1984) (ISBN 1 86373 098 2) $A24.95 (soft).

Australian Geographer 23 (2), November 1992

INDUSTRIAL LOCATION: Principles and Policies (Second Edition) by K. Chapman and D. F. Walker. 15 × 23 cm, xiii and 322 pages. Basil Black‐well: Oxford 1991 (ISBN 0 631 16789 7) $A39.95 (soft).

INTERNATIONALISATION OF AUSTRALIA'S SERVICE INDUSTRIES by J. V. Langdale. 17 × 25 cm, iv and 373 pages. Australian Government Publishing Service, for Department of Industry, Technology and Commerce: Canberra 1991 (ISBN 0 644 13841 6).

TOURISM AND GOLD IN KAKADU: The Impact of Current and Potential Natural Resource Use on the Northern Territory Economy by B. Knapman, O. Stanley and J. Lea. 21 × 29 cm, vi and 49 pages. North Australia Research Unit, Australian National University: Darwin 1991 (ISBN 0 7315 1179 4).

ABORIGINAL AUSTRALIA AND THE ‘NEW FEDERALISM’ INITIATIVE (Discussion Paper No. 2) by G. J. Crough. 14 × 21 cm, 42 pages. North Australia Research Unit, Australian National University: Darwin 1991 (ISBN 0 7315 1325 8).

AUSTRALIAN NATIONHOOD AND OUTBACK INDIGENOUS PEOPLES (Discussion Paper No. 1) by P. Jull. 14 × 21 cm, 38 pages. North Australia Research Unit, Australian National University: Darwin 1991 (ISBN 0 7315 1309 6).

MIGRATION AND DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTH PACIFIC (Pacific Research Monograph No. 24) edited by J. Connell. 17 × 25 cm, xii and 199 pages. National Centre for Development Studies, Australian National University: Canberra 1990 (ISBN 0 07315 0668 5) $A25.00 (soft).

POPIULESIN BLONG HONIARA: Olketa Popiulesin Map Blong 1986 Sensis. HONIARA: 1986 Census Atlas (Statistics Office Occasional Paper No. 4 / Board of Development Studies Monograph No. 1) by A.C. Walsh. 21 × 29 cm, vii and 95 pages. Department of Statistics: Honiara and Board of Development Studies, Massey University: Palmerston North 1990 (ISSN 0114 8834) $NZ34.00 in New Zealand, $NZ38.00 elsewhere (soft).

DOI MOI: Vietnam's Renovation Policy and Performance (Political and Social Change Monograph No. 14) edited by D. K. Forbes, T. H. Hull, D. G. Marr and B. Brogan. 15 × 22 cm, xiv and 263 pages. Department of Political and Social Change, Australian National University: Canberra 1991 (ISBN 0 7315 1303 7).     

Groundwater for People and the Environment: A Globally Threatened Resource

The intensity of global groundwater use rose from 124 m³ per capita in 1950 to 152 m³ in 2021, for a 22.6% rise in the annual per capita use. This rise in global per capita water use reflects rising consumption patterns. The global use of groundwater, which provides between 21% and 30% of the total freshwater annual consumption, will continue to expand due to the sustained population growth projected through most of the 21st century and the important role that groundwater plays in the water-food-energy nexus. The rise in groundwater use, on the other hand, has inflicted adverse impacts in many aquifers, such as land subsidence, sea water intrusion, stream depletion, and deterioration of groundwater-dependent ecosystems, groundwater-quality degradation, and aridification. This paper projects global groundwater use between 2025 and 2050. The projected global annual groundwater withdrawal in 2050 is 1535 km³ (1 km³ = 10⁹ m³ = 810,713 acre-feet). The projected global groundwater depletion, that is, the excess of withdrawal over recharge, in 2050 equals 887 km³, which is about 61% larger than in 2021. This projection signals probable exacerbation of adverse groundwater-withdrawal impacts, which are worsened by climatic trends and the environmental requirement of groundwater flow unless concerted national and international efforts achieve groundwater sustainability.     

Sedimentology and evolution of Omaro Spit,Coromandel Peninsula

The sedimentary structures, composition, and texture of sediments from the barrier coast complex (Matarangi Beach—Omaro Spit—Whangapoua Harbour) at Whangapoua, Coromandel Peninsula, are described. Sediments are mainly fine sands, rarely muddy or silty, and most are plagioclase feldsarenites, reflecting derivation from a predominantly Tertiary volcanic hinterland. Sediments from each of the modern environments, namely nearshore, foreshore, back‐shore, frontal dunes, tidal flats, and tidal channels, are characterised by a particular combination of sedimentary structures and subtle textural parameters. Dune ridge and barrier flat paleoenvironments on Omaro Spit were successfully identified by comparing their lithologic properties with the modern sediments. ‘Surficial’ sediments of the well‐preserved dune ridge system developed immediately inland from Matarangi Beach closely resemble those in the modern frontal dunes, and the ‘in depth’ dune ridge sediments are more analogous to the present foreshore sands. The barrier flat deposits separating the dune ridge system from Whangapoua Harbour have similar characteristics to the modern tidal flat sediments in the harbour.

Omaro Spit probably began as an offshore bar across the mouth of Whangapoua Harbour, an embayment formed by the post‐glacial drowning of a Late Tertiary dislocated fault‐block. Tidal flat sedimentation within the harbour formed the ancient barrier flat deposits which rise to at least 2 m above the modern harbour flats, suggesting local sea level at the time was higher than at present. During a subsequent cyclic fall in sea level, supratidal aeolian deposition led to a succession of 15 to 18 parallel dune ridges developed on high‐tide berms. Linear regression analyses of dune ridge and swale heights and the height distribution of positive (aeolian) and negative (beach foreshore) skewness values and of contrasting sedimentary structures in dune ridgL paleosediments, together with the stages in dune soil development across the barrier, suggest initial sedimentation occurred from 4000–5000 years ago when local sea level was 2–3 m above present mean high water level. Barrier progradation was interrupted by an important period of coastal erosion during a temporary rise in sea level immediately before deposition in the dune ridge system of a layer of 2000‐year‐old sea‐rafted Leigh Pumice. Sea level probably reached its modern position at Whangapoua about 1000 years ago, since when some evidence suggests the barrier spit may have experienced minor uplift.     

Evidence for inherited Sm−Nd isotopes in granitoid zircons

This study presents evidence to show that, in addition to preserving U–Pb isotope systematics, refractory zircons also preserve, at least in part, an inherited Sm–Nd isotope component. The zircons analyzed during this study were taken from the Strontian granitoid (NW Scotland). The inner intrusion of this composite pluton is known from a previous study to contain substantial U–Pb zircon inheritance, whereas the outer part has only minor inheritance. Zircons from the inner intrusion were found to have significantly lower Nd₄₂₅ values than either their host rock, separated apatite or monazite. It is argued that this isotopic disequilibrium is due to the presence of an inherited Sm–Nd isotope component, rather than being due to a post-crystallization disturbance of the zircons. The preservation of inherted Sm–Nd isotopes within refractory zircons implies that they remain closed systems with respect to the diffusion of Sm and Nd (and presumably the other REE) to temperatures in excess of 700°C. The fact that zircons commonly have high Sm/Nd ratios, relative to sialic crustal material, means that the Nd isotopic evolution of inherited zircons will be very different to that of much of the continental crust.     

Comet classification with new methods for gas and dust spectroscopy

We present the results of a program of comet long-slit spectroscopy with the Kast Dual Spectrograph on the 3-m Shane Telescope at Lick Observatory. A total of 26 comets, from a variety of dynamical families, were observed on 39 different nights from 1996 to 2007. A new statistical method extracted the twilight sky from comet frames, because traditional sky subtraction techniques were inadequate. Because previously published Haser model parent and daughter scale lengths did not fit the data well, unbiased ranges of scale lengths were searched for the best-fitting pairs. Coma gas production rates for OH, CN, C₂, C₃, NH, NH₂, and OH confirmed the widely reported carbon-chain depletion for a sub-class of comets, most notably high-perihelion Jupiter-family comets observed at r_h > 1.5 AU, with different behaviors for C₂ and C₃. Our long-slit spectroscopy data was also adapted for the A(θ)fρ dust production parameter. The assumption that A(θ)fρ is constant throughout the nucleus was not upheld. High dust-to-gas ratios for comets with large perihelia were not a selection effect, and suggest that the dust was released earlier in the formation of the coma than the gas. The dust-to-gas ratio did not exhibit any evolutionary traces between different comet dynamical families. The comet survey illuminates the diversity among comets, including the unusually carbon poor Comet 96P/Machholz.     

Seismic,petrologic, and geodetic analyses of the 1999 dome-forming eruption of Guagua Pichincha volcano,Ecuador

Guagua Pichincha, located 14 km west of Quito, Ecuador, is a stratovolcano bisected by a horseshoe-shaped caldera. In 1999, after some months of phreatic activity, Guagua Pichincha entered into an eruptive period characterized by the extrusion of several dacitic domes, vulcanian eruptions, and pyroclastic flows. We estimated the three-dimensional (3-D) P-wave velocity structure beneath Guagua Pichincha using a tomographic inversion method based on finite-difference calculations of first-arrival times. Hypocenters of volcano-tectonic (VT) earthquakes and long-period (LP) events were relocated using the 3-D P-wave velocity model. A low-velocity anomaly exists beneath the caldera and may represent an active volcanic conduit. Petrologic analysis of eruptive products indicates a magma storage region beneath the caldera, having a vertical extent of 7–8 km with the upper boundary at about sea level. This zone coincides with the source region of deeper VT earthquakes, indicating that a primary magma body exists in this region. LP swarms occurred in a cyclic pattern synchronous with ground deformation during magma extrusions. The correlation between seismicity and ground deformation suggests that both respond to pressure changes caused by the cyclic eruptive behavior of lava domes.     

Fluid-mobile trace element constraints on the role of slab melting and implications for Archaean crustal growth models

We use published and new trace element data to identify element ratios which discriminate between arc magmas from the supra-subduction zone mantle wedge and those formed by direct melting of subducted crust (i.e. adakites). The clearest distinction is obtained with those element ratios which are strongly fractionated during refertilisation of the depleted mantle wedge, ultimately reflecting slab dehydration. Hence, adakites have significantly lower Pb/Nd and B/Be but higher Nb/Ta than typical arc magmas and continental crust as a whole. Although Li and Be are also overenriched in continental crust, behaviour of Li/Yb and Be/Nd is more complex and these ratios do not provide unique signatures of slab melting. Archaean tonalite-trondhjemite-granodiorites (TTGs) strongly resemble ordinary mantle wedge-derived arc magmas in terms of fluid-mobile trace element content, implying that they did not form by slab melting but that they originated from mantle which was hydrated and enriched in elements lost from slabs during prograde dehydration. We suggest that Archaean TTGs formed by extensive fractional crystallisation from a mafic precursor. It is widely claimed that the time between the creation and subduction of oceanic lithosphere was significantly shorter in the Archaean (i.e. 20 Ma) than it is today. This difference was seen as an attractive explanation for the presumed preponderance of adakitic magmas during the first half of Earth's history. However, when we consider the effects of a higher potential mantle temperature on the thickness of oceanic crust, it follows that the mean age of oceanic lithosphere has remained virtually constant. Formation of adakites has therefore always depended on local plate geometry and not on potential mantle temperature.     

Response reduction factor of irregular RC buildings in Kathmandu valley

Most current seismic design includes the nonlinear response of a structure through a response reduction factor(R). This allows the designer to use a linear elastic force-based approach while accounting for nonlinear behavior and deformation limits. In fact, the response reduction factor is used in modern seismic codes to scale down the elastic response of a structure. This study focuses on estimating the actual ‘R' value for engineered design/construction of reinforced concrete(RC) buildings in Kathmandu valley. The ductility and overstrength of representative RC buildings in Kathmandu are investigated. Nonlinear pushover analysis was performed on structural models in order to evaluate the seismic performance of buildings. Twelve representative engineered irregular buildings with a variety of characteristics located in the Kathmandu valley were selected and studied. Furthermore, the effects of overstrength on the ductility factor, beam column capacity ratio on the building ductility, and load path on the response reduction factor, are examined. Finally, the results are further analyzed and compared with different structural parameters of the buildings.     

High-Frequency Response of the Atmospheric Electric Potential Gradient Under Strong and Dry Boundary-Layer Convection

The spectral response of atmospheric electric potential gradient gives important information about phenomena affecting this gradient at characteristic time scales ranging from years (e.g., solar modulation) to fractions of a second (e.g., turbulence). While long-term time scales have been exhaustively explored, short-term scales have received less attention. At such frequencies, space-charge transport inside the planetary boundary layer becomes a sizeable contribution to the potential gradient variability. For the first time, co-located (Évora, Portugal) measurements of boundary-layer backscatter profiles and the 100-Hz potential gradient are reported. Five campaign days are analyzed, providing evidence for a relation between high-frequency response of the potential gradient and strong dry convection.