Quantitative modelling of seismic site amplification in an earthquake-endangered capital city: Bucharest,Romania

Bucharest, the capital city of Romania, with more than 2 million inhabitants, is considered as a natural disaster hotspot by a recent global study of the World Bank and the Columbia University (Dilley M et al. Natural disaster hotspots: a global risk analysis. International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank and Columbia University, Washington, DC in 2005). Therefore, it is classified as the second metropolis in Europe, after Istanbul, subjected to important losses in the case of a destructive Vrancea earthquake with moment magnitude greater than seven. Four major earthquakes with moment magnitudes between 6.9 and 7.7 hit Bucharest in the last 68 years. The most recent destructive earthquake on March 4, 1977, with a moment magnitude of 7.4, caused about 1,500 casualties in the capital alone. All disastrous intermediate-depth earthquakes are generated within a small epicentral area—the Vrancea seismogenic region—about 150 km northeast of Bucharest. Thick unconsolidated sedimentary layers below Bucharest amplify the arriving seismic waves causing severe destruction. Ten 50-m-deep boreholes are drilled in the metropolitan area of Bucharest in order to obtain a unique, homogeneous dataset of seismic, soil-mechanic and elasto-dynamic parameters. Cores for dynamic tests were extracted, and vertical seismic profiles were performed to obtain an updated site amplification model related to earthquakes waves. The boreholes are placed near former or existing seismic station sites to allow a direct comparison and calibration of the borehole data with previous seismological measurements. A database containing geological characteristics for each sedimentary layer, geotechnical parameters measured on rock samples, P- and S wave velocity and density for each sedimentary layer is set up, as a result of previous papers with this subject. Direct data obtained by the geophysical methods in the new boreholes drilled in Bucharest City, as well as from laboratory measurements, are used as input data in the program SHAKE2000. Results are obtained in the form of spectral acceleration response, and peak acceleration in depth is computed for every site in which in situ measurements were performed. The acceleration response spectra correspond to the shear-wave amplifications due to the models of sedimentary layers down to (a) 50 m depth; (b) 70 m depth; and (c) 100 m depth. A comparison of the acceleration response spectra obtained by modelling at surface with a real signal recorded at surface is obtained in three sites, as test sites for the three depths considered, in order to calibrate the results obtained by equivalent linear method of the seismic site response.     

Dependence of climate forcing and response on the altitude of black carbon aerosols

Black carbon aerosols absorb solar radiation and decrease planetary albedo, and thus can contribute to climate warming. In this paper, the dependence of equilibrium climate response on the altitude of black carbon is explored using an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a mixed layer ocean model. The simulations model aerosol direct and semi-direct effects, but not indirect effects. Aerosol concentrations are prescribed and not interactive. It is shown that climate response of black carbon is highly dependent on the altitude of the aerosol. As the altitude of black carbon increases, surface temperatures decrease; black carbon near the surface causes surface warming, whereas black carbon near the tropopause and in the stratosphere causes surface cooling. This cooling occurs despite increasing planetary absorption of sunlight (i.e. decreasing planetary albedo). We find that the trend in surface air temperature response versus the altitude of black carbon is consistent with our calculations of radiative forcing after the troposphere, stratosphere, and land surface have undergone rapid adjustment, calculated as “regressed” radiative forcing. The variation in climate response from black carbon at different altitudes occurs largely from different fast climate responses; temperature dependent feedbacks are not statistically distinguishable. Impacts of black carbon at various altitudes on the hydrological cycle are also discussed; black carbon in the lowest atmospheric layer increases precipitation despite reductions in solar radiation reaching the surface, whereas black carbon at higher altitudes decreases precipitation.