Stellar sources of the short-lived radionuclides in the early solar system

We discuss the possible stellar sources of short-lived radionuclides (SLRs) known to have been present in the early solar system (²⁶Al, ³⁶Cl, ⁴¹Ca, ⁵³Mn, ⁶⁰Fe, ¹⁰⁷Pd, ¹²⁹I, ¹⁸²Hf, ²⁴⁴Pu). SLRs produced primarily by irradiation (⁷Be, ¹⁰Be) are not discussed in this paper. We evaluate the role of the galactic background in explaining the inventory of SLRs in the early solar system. We review the nucleosynthetic processes that produce the different SLRs and place the processes in the context of stellar evolution of stars from 1 to 120 M_⊙. The ejection of newly synthesized SLRs from these stars is also discussed. We then examine the extent to which each stellar source can, by itself, explain the relative abundances of the different SLRs in the early solar system, and the probability that each source would have been in the right place at the right time to provide the SLRs. We conclude that intermediate-mass AGB stars and massive stars in the range from ∼20 to ∼60 M_⊙ are the most plausible sources. Low-mass AGB stars fail to produce enough ⁶⁰Fe. Core-collapse Type II supernovae from stars with initial masses of <20 M_⊙ produce too much ⁶⁰Fe and ⁵³Mn. Sources such as novae, Type Ia supernovae, and core-collapse supernovae of O-Ne-Mg white dwarfs do not appear to provide the SLRs in the correct proportions. However, intermediate-mass AGB stars cannot provide ⁵³Mn or the r-process elements, so if an AGB star provided the ⁴¹Ca, ³⁶Cl, ²⁶Al, ⁶⁰Fe, and ¹⁰⁷Pd, and if a late stellar source is required for ⁵³Mn and the r-process elements, then two types of sources would be required. A separate discussion of the production of r-process elements highlights the difficulties in modeling their production. There appear to be two sources of r-process elements, one that produces the heavy r-process elements, including the actinides, and one that produces the elements from N to Ge and the elements ∼110 < A < ∼130. These can be assigned to SNII explosions of stars of ?11 M_⊙ and stars of 12-25 M_⊙, respectively. More-massive stars, which leave black holes as supernova remnants, apparently do not produce r-process elements.     

Analyses of fold profiles by changing weight parameters of NURB curves

Analyses of Non-Uniform Rational B-spline (NURB) curve by varying weights at its nodal points and projection ratio produce several kinetically plausible symmetric and asymmetric fold morphologies in 2D promptly and efficiently with varied overall geometries, curvature of limbs, sharpness/bluntness of hinges, extent of hinge zone, tightness/interlimb angles, etc. Some of these folds are new geometries what other approaches, such as those with Bézier curve, did not produce so far. Natural fold profiles can be matched with NURB curves from photographs.     

An Indian monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISO) index for real time monitoring and forecast verification

The wet/dry spells of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall are governed by northward propagating boreal summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISO). Unlike for the Madden Julian Oscillation (e.g. RMM indices, Wheeler and Hendon in Mon Weather Rev 132:1917–1932, 2004), a low dimensional real-time monitoring and forecast verification metric for the MISO is not currently available. Here, for the first time, we present a real time monitoring index developed for identifying the amplitude and phase of the MISO over the ISM domain. The index is constructed by applying extended empirical orthogonal function (EEOF) analysis on daily unfiltered rainfall anomalies averaged over the longitudinal domain 60.5°E–95.5°E. The gravest two modes of the EEOFs together explain about 23 % of the total variance, similar to the variance explained by MISO in observation. The pair of first two principal components (PCs) of the EEOFs is named as MISO1 and MISO2 indices which together represent the evolution of the MISOs in a low dimensional phase space. Power spectral analysis reveals that the MISO indices neatly isolate the MISO signal from the higher frequency noise. It is found that the current amplitude and phase of the MISO can be estimated by preserving a memory of at least 15 days. Composite pictures of the spatio-temporal evolution of the MISOs over the ISM domain are brought out using the MISO indices. It is further demonstrated that the MISO indices can be used in the quantification of skill of extended range forecasts of MISOs. Since the MISO index does not rely on any sort of time filtering, it has great potential for real time monitoring of the MISO and may be useful in developing some prediction scheme.     

Why ensemble mean projection of south Asian monsoon rainfall by CMIP5 models is not reliable?

Future projections of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) and its large-scale thermodynamic driver are studied by using CMIP5 model outputs. While all models project an increasing precipitation in the future warming scenario, most of them project a weakening large-scale thermodynamic driver arising from a weakening of the upper tropospheric temperature (UTT) gradient over south Asian summer monsoon region. The weakening of the UTT gradient under global warming scenarios is related to the increase in sea surface temperature (SST) over the equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO) leading to a stronger increase of UTT over the EIO region relative to the northern Indian region, a hypothesis supported by a series of Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) experiments forced by projected SSTs. To diagnose the inconsistency between the model projections of precipitation and the large-scale thermodynamic driver, we have examined the rate of total precipitation explained by convective and stratiform precipitations in observations and in CMIP5 models. It is found that most models produce too much (little) convective (stratiform) precipitation compared to observations. In addition, we also find stronger precipitable water—precipitation relationship in most CMIP5 models as compared to observations. Hence, the atmospheric moisture content produced by the model immediately gets converted to precipitation even though the large-scale thermodynamics in models weaken. Therefore, under global warming scenarios, due to increased temperature and resultant increased atmospheric moisture supply, these models tend to produce unrealistic local convective precipitation often not in tune with other large-scale variables. Our results questions the reliability of the ISMR projections in CMIP5 models and highlight the need to improve the convective parameterization schemes in coupled models for the reliable projections of the ISMR.     

The synthesis of26Al during combined hydrogen and helium-burning reactions

We have studied the synthesis of²⁶Al during combined hydrogen and helium-burning processes in high temperature and density conditions. The possible sites for these processes are believed to be the neutron star surfaces where the density ranges from =10⁴–10⁷ g cm^–3 and temperature range from 10⁸–8×10⁸ K. The screening effect which leads to an enhancement of nuclear reaction rates is taken into account whenever necessary. A detailed calculation of the abundances of²⁶Al and²⁷Al isotopes is presented here. Finite amounts of²⁶Al is found to be produced atT=2×10⁸ K and =10⁸ g cm^–3 due to these combined reactions. This situation is likely to be realized during the -ray burst events on neutron star surface. The amount of material processed in the burst sources is very little compared to the amount of material processed in Novae or Supernovae. Thus it is suggested that rather than contributing to the overall amount of²⁶Al, -ray bursts are likely to contribute more significantly to the inhomogeneity of²⁶Al distribution in interstellar medium.     

Role of the Tibetan plateau glaciers in the Asian summer monsoon

The expected growth in the demand for passenger and freight services exacerbates the challenges of reducing transport GHG emissions, especially as commercial low-carbon alternatives to petroleum fuels are limited for shipping, air and long-distance road travel. Biofuels can offer a pathway to significantly reduce emissions from these sectors, as they can easily substitute for conventional liquid fuels in internal combustion engines. In this paper, we assess the potential of bioenergy to reduce transport GHG emissions through an analysis leveraging various integrated assessment models and scenarios, as part of the 33rd Energy Modeling Forum study (EMF-33). We find that bioenergy can contribute a significant, albeit not dominant, proportion of energy supply to the future transport sector: in scenarios aiming to keep the temperature increase below 2 °C by the end of the twenty-first century, models project that in 2100 bioenergy can provide on average 42 EJ/yr (ranging from 5 to 85 EJ/yr) for transport (compared to 3.7 EJ in 2018), mainly through lignocellulosic fuels. This makes up 9–62% of final transport energy use. Only a small amount of bioenergy is projected to be used in transport through electricity and hydrogen pathways, with a larger role for biofuels in road passenger transport than in freight. The association of carbon capture and storage (CCS) with bioenergy technologies (BECCS) is a key determinant in the role of biofuels in transport, because of the competition for biomass feedstock to provide other final energy carriers along with carbon removal. Among models that consider CCS in the biofuel conversion process the average market share of biofuels is 21% in 2100 (ranging from 2 to 44%), compared to 10% (0–30%) for models that do not. Cumulative direct emissions from the transport sector account for half of the emission budget (from 306 to 776 out of 1,000 GtCO₂). However, the carbon intensity of transport decreases as much as other energy sectors in 2100 when accounting for process emissions, including carbon removal from BECCS. Lignocellulosic fuels become more attractive for transport decarbonization if BECCS is not feasible for any energy sectors. Since global transport service demand increases and biomass supply is limited, its allocation to and within the transport sector is uncertain and sensitive to assumptions about political as well as technological and socioeconomic factors.

     

Validation of a satellite-based cyclogenesis technique over the North Indian Ocean

Indian region is severely affected by the tropical cyclones (TCs) due to the long coast line of about 7500 km. Hence, whenever any low level circulation (LLC) forms over the Indian Seas, the prediction of its intensification into a TC is very essential for the management of TC disaster. Satellite Application Centre (SAC) of Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO), Ahmedabad, has developed a technique to predict TCs based on scatterometer-derived winds from the polar orbiting satellite, QuikSCAT and Oceansat-II. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has acquired the technique and verified it for the years 2010–2013 for operational use. The model is based on the concept of analogs of the sea surface wind distribution at the stage of LLC or vortex (T1.0) as per Dvorak’s classifications, which eventually leads to cyclogenesis (T2.5). The results indicate that the developed model could predict cyclogenesis with a probability of detection of 61% and critical success index of 0.29. However, it shows high over-prediction of the model is better over the Bay of Bengal than over Arabian Sea and during post-monsoon season (September–December) than in pre-monsoon season (March–June).