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31.
Simulation of high-impact tropical weather events: comparative analysis of three heavy rainfall events 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Episodes of heavy rainfall, although relatively rare, significantly contribute to the hydrological cycle due to the large quantum of rainfall in a short span of time. Accurate simulation of such heavy or extreme rainfall events therefore is an important benchmark for a model. Here, we consider the simulation of three heavy rainfall events (Mumbai, Bangalore and Chennai) that occurred over the Indian monsoon region in different geographical locations and seasons during 2005, using a mesoscale meteorological model, namely MM5V3. Simulations have been carried out at high resolution (2 km) to resolve orographic features and land–ocean gradients over the event locations with a 3-nest, 2-way configuration. The primary objective of this study is to carry out a multi-event, multi-location evaluation of the model configuration for simulating a class of heavy rainfall events and to compare some important meteorological features of the events. Our results have shown that a very high relative humidity, low-level convergence, convective instability in terms of equivalent potential temperature, high vertical velocity, smaller mixing ratio at low level and higher mixing ratio at upper level essentially dominated and sustained the convective dynamics in all the three events. It was also found that the latent heat flux (LHF) dominated coastal events (Mumbai and Chennai) with relatively much higher values compared to sensible heat flux (SHF) throughout the event life cycle. In the case of the Bangalore event, both LHF and SHF are comparable during the event life cycle. 相似文献
32.
In operational forecast, the stability indices either individually or in combination are utilized to assess the predictability of local severe storms over a region. The objective of the present study is to identify such stability indices to assess the predictability of Bordoichila of Guwahati, India, during the pre-monsoon season (April–May) aiming to formulate a composite stability index using the most pertinent indices for nowcasting Bordoichila with considerable precision. Bordoichila, meaning the angry daughter of Assam, represents local severe storms of Guwahati during the pre-monsoon season. Precise forecast of Bordoichila is essential to mitigate the associated catastrophe over Guwahati. The forecast quality detection parameters are computed with the available indices during the period from 1997 to 2006 to select the most relevant stability indices for the prevalence of Bordoichila. The method of normal probability distribution is implemented to identify the threshold ranges of the selected indices. The stability indices that are selected with appropriate ranges are lifted index, Showalter index (SI), cross total index (CTI), vertical total index, totals total, convective available potential energy, convective inhibition energy, SWEAT and bulk Richardson number. The forecast skill scores are estimated with the selected indices. The best predictor indices identified for the prevalence of Bordoichila are the cross total index (CTI) and Showalter index (SI). A composite stability index, Bordoichila prediction index, is formulated with CTI and SI with proper weightages. The forecast with BPI is validated with the observations of India Meteorological Department for the year 2007 and is implemented for real-time forecast for the years 2009 and 2011. 相似文献
33.
Sushina nepheline syenite gneisses of Early Proterozoic North Singhbhum Mobile Belt (NSMB), eastern India suffered regional metamorphism under greenschist-amphibolite transitional facies condition. The Agpaitic Sushina nepheline syenite gneisses consist of albite, K-feldspar, nepheline (close to Morozewicz-Buerger composition), aegirine, biotite, epidote, piemontite, sodalite, cancrinite, natrolite and local alkali amphibole. Accessory phases include zircon, hematite, magnetite, rare pyrochlore and occasional eudialyte and manganoan calcic zirconosilicates. Mineral chemistry of albite, K-feldspar, nepheline, aegirine, alkali amphibole, natrolite and zirconium silicate minerals are described. The detailed textural features together with chemical data of some minerals indicate metamorphic overprint of these rocks. A new reaction is given for the genesis of metamorphic epidote. Metamorphic piemontite suggests greenschist facies metamorphism under high fO2 (Hematite-Magnetite buffer). Up to 15.34 mol% of jadeite component in aegirine suggests that the metamorphic grade of the nepheline syenite gneiss reached at least to greenschist-amphibolite transitional facies or higher. Nepheline geothermometry suggests temperature of metamorphism <500 °C, which is consistent with greenschist facies metamorphism of surrounding chlorite-biotite-garnet phyllite country rock. 相似文献
34.
35.
Prediction and monitoring of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations over Indian monsoon region in an ensemble prediction system using CFSv2 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
S. Abhilash A. K. Sahai N. Borah R. Chattopadhyay S. Joseph S. Sharmila S. De B. N. Goswami Arun Kumar 《Climate Dynamics》2014,42(9-10):2801-2815
An ensemble prediction system (EPS) is devised for the extended range prediction (ERP) of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISO) of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) using National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System model version 2 at T126 horizontal resolution. The EPS is formulated by generating 11 member ensembles through the perturbation of atmospheric initial conditions. The hindcast experiments were conducted at every 5-day interval for 45 days lead time starting from 16th May to 28th September during 2001–2012. The general simulation of ISM characteristics and the ERP skill of the proposed EPS at pentad mean scale are evaluated in the present study. Though the EPS underestimates both the mean and variability of ISM rainfall, it simulates the northward propagation of MISO reasonably well. It is found that the signal-to-noise ratio of the forecasted rainfall becomes unity by about 18 days. The potential predictability error of the forecasted rainfall saturates by about 25 days. Though useful deterministic forecasts could be generated up to 2nd pentad lead, significant correlations are found even up to 4th pentad lead. The skill in predicting large-scale MISO, which is assessed by comparing the predicted and observed MISO indices, is found to be ~17 days. It is noted that the prediction skill of actual rainfall is closely related to the prediction of large-scale MISO amplitude as well as the initial conditions related to the different phases of MISO. An analysis of categorical prediction skills reveals that break is more skillfully predicted, followed by active and then normal. The categorical probability skill scores suggest that useful probabilistic forecasts could be generated even up to 4th pentad lead. 相似文献
36.
The energy spectra of primary cosmic rays were studied in the energy interval 150 to 450 MeV/nucl by using balloon-borne cellulose-nitrate
solid-state plastic detector. Effects of solar modulation were studied using the theoretical spectrum ofH
1 nuclei near the solar minimum in 1964 as the demodulated spectrum. The ‘force-field’ potential which fit the experimental
results was estimated to be 270 MeV/nucl. 相似文献
37.
Sunetra Giridhar A. Arellano Ferro Aruna Goswami 《Journal of Astrophysics and Astronomy》1991,12(1):27-37
The long period classical cepheid RZ Vel (HD 73502) is known to be a member of an OB association, Vel OB1 in Vela, and a high
metallicity is ascribed to it by the photometric work of Eggen (1982). We have done an abundance analysis for this long period
(P = 20.4 days) and hence young (age ≈ 1.80×107 yr) classical cepheid using high resolution CCD spectra with good S/N ratio. We have used a detailed model atmosphere method
to derive the abundances of the light elements C, O, A1, S and of many Fe-peak elements and a few s-process elements. Our
present work indicates near solar abundance for most of the elements for RZ Vel and hence we do not confirm the high metallicity
derived photometrically by Eggen (1982) for this star 相似文献
38.
Summary It is shown that there exists a mechanism that can cause north-northwest movement of tropical cyclones in addition to already recognised mechanisms such as steering current and beta drift. This mechanism depends on the interaction between organised convection and dynamics. In the initial stages of formation of a cyclone, it is assumed that the hydrodynamic instabilities result in an incipient disturbance that organises some convection giving rise to a heat source. The atmospheric response to a localized heat source located off the equator in the northern hemisphere produces a low level vorticity field with a maximum in the northwest sector of the original heat source. If the Ekman-CISK which depends on the low level vorticity, was the dominating mechanism for moisture convergence, the location of the heat source would move to the new location of vorticity maximum. A repetition of this process would result in a northwest movement of the heat source and hence that of the cyclone. The movement of a tropical vortex under the influence of this mechanism which depends on asymmetries created by linear dispersion of Rossby waves is first illustrated using a linear model. It is then demonstrated that this process also enhances the motion of a tropical vortex in a nonlinear model. Importance of this feedback and the resulting movements of a tropical vortex in determining the actual track of a cyclone and in bogusing an initial vortex for prediction models are illustrated.With 6 Figures 相似文献
39.
Kumar Siddharth Arora Anika Chattopadhyay R. Hazra Anupam Rao Suryachandra A. Goswami B. N. 《Climate Dynamics》2017,48(3-4):999-1015
Climate Dynamics - Modification of the vertical structure of non-adiabatic heating by significant abundance of the stratiform rain in the tropics has been known to influence the large-scale... 相似文献
40.