Atmospheric variability is driven not only by internal dynamics, but also by external forcing, such as soil states, SST, snow, sea-ice cover, and so on. To investigate the forecast uncertainties and effects of land surface processes on numerical weather prediction, we added modules to perturb soil moisture and soil temperature into NCEP’s Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS), and compared the results of a set of experiments involving different configurations of land surface and atmospheric perturbation. It was found that uncertainties in different soil layers varied due to the multiple timescales of interactions between land surface and atmospheric processes. Perturbations of the soil moisture and soil temperature at the land surface changed sensible and latent heat flux obviously, as compared to the less or indirect land surface perturbation experiment from the day-to-day forecasts. Soil state perturbations led to greater variation in surface heat fluxes that transferred to the upper troposphere, thus reflecting interactions and the response to atmospheric external forcing. Various verification scores were calculated in this study. The results indicated that taking the uncertainties of land surface processes into account in GEFS could contribute a slight improvement in forecast skill in terms of resolution and reliability, a noticeable reduction in forecast error, as well as an increase in ensemble spread in an under-dispersive system. This paper provides a preliminary evaluation of the effects of land surface processes on predictability. Further research using more complex and suitable methods is needed to fully explore our understanding in this area. 相似文献
The impact of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) on the ENSO amplitude was investigated through observational analyses. During the past 90 years the interdecadal variability of ENSO intensity is significantly correlated with the AMO. ENSO variability was strengthened (weakened) during a negative (positive) AMO phase. An ocean mixed layer heat budget analysis reveals that the thermocline feedback is the main process regulating AMO negative phase dependent ENSO growth characteristic. A further examination indicates that a strengthened atmospheric response to unit SST anomaly, an enhanced thermocline response to unit wind stress forcing and a strengthened subsurface temperature response to unit thermocline variation all contribute to the enhanced thermocline feedback during the negative phase of AMO. Such changes are attributed to the increase of background moisture, the weakening of mean subtropical cell (STC) and increase of upper ocean vertical temperature gradient respectively.
The effect of dietary phosphorus on the growth and body components of juvenile Synechogobius hasta was determined. Different percentages of dietary phosphorus (0.63, 0.77, 0.93, 1.06, 1.22 and 1.36) were tested by feeding
the fish (body weight, 15.81 g ± 0.32 g; 20 individuals each group; 3 groups each percentage) at a surplus of 5%–10% above
satiation for 35 d. Dietary phosphorus did not significantly affect the specific growth rate, feed intake, feed conversion
ratio and protein efficiency rate. Nitrogen retention was found to be the highest in fish fed the diet containing 1.06% of
phosphorus; however, this was not significantly different from other diets. Fish fed the diet containing 0.93% of phosphorus
showed the highest phosphorus retention; similar phosphorus retention rates were found in fish fed the diets containing 0.77%
and 1.06% of phosphorus. Fish fed the diet containing the highest percentage of dietary phosphorus were found to contain the
least whole body lipid, lower than fish fed other diets (P<0.05). The protein content increased from 18.59% to 19.55% (although not significant) with the decrease of body lipid content
(P>0.05). The contents of the whole body ash, whole body phosphorus and vertebrae phosphorus increased with dietary phosphorus
percentage up to 1.06 (P<0.05), reaching a plateau after that. Dietary phosphorus did not significantly influence the muscle components (protein,
lipid and moisture). Condition factor and hepatosomatic index were the highest in fish fed the diet containing 0.63% of dietary
phosphorus; however, this was not significantly different from those of other diets. The second-order polynomial regression
of phosphorus retention against dietary phosphorus identified a breakpoint at 0.88% of dietary phosphorus. However, the dietary
requirement of phosphorus for maintaining maximum phosphorus storage determined by broken-line analysis of the contents of
whole body phosphorus, and ash and vertebrae phosphorus was 1.06% of the diet. 相似文献
Mean motion resonances(MMRs)are widespread in our Solar System.Moreover,resonant dynamics has always been an essential topic in planetary research.Recently,the research about exoplanets and the potential Planet Nine with large eccentricity has given rise to our interests in the secular dynamics inside MMRs in the elliptic model.In this paper,we study the fixed points of the averaged Hamiltonian and the long-term stable regions of the 1/1 resonance(or co-orbital motion)in the elliptic restricted three-body problem(ERTBP)systematically.Numerical integrations prove those test particles trapped in"apsidal co-rotation",where both the resonant angleφresand the secular angleΔω(or apsidal longitude differences)librate simultaneously,always survive the long-term simulations.Furthermore,utilizing a semianalytical method based on the adiabatic approach,three families of long-term fixed points of the averaged Hamiltonian of the planar ERTBP inside the 1/1 resonance have been found.We call them QS-points,Hpoints,and T-points here,whose values of the(φres,Δω)are(0°,180°),(180°,0°),and(±60°,±60°),respectively.All the fixed points of the averaged Hamiltonian of the co-orbital motion in the ERTBP are presented in the e-e’plane(’represents the elements of the planet in this paper).We find that QS-points and T-points always exist for the arbitrary eccentricity of a planet,while H-points only exist for the cases of low e’and very high e.Furthermore,we measure the libration width in terms of eccentricity,Δe,around these stable equilibrium points in the e-Δωphase-space portraits.The"apsidal co-rotation"around all the stable equilibrium points is presented in the e-e’plane.All these results are effectively confirmed by numerical experiments.The long-term stable zones around these periodic orbits in the e-e’plane are significant for the research of the co-orbital motion in the ERTBP.Above all,these practical approaches that we proposed can also be used to study the secular dynamics of other MMRs. 相似文献
Global positioning system-enabled vehicles provide an efficient way to obtain large quantities of movement data for individuals. However, the raw data usually lack activity information, which is highly valuable for a range of applications and services. This study provides a novel and practical framework for inferring the trip purposes of taxi passengers such that the semantics of taxi trajectory data can be enriched. The probability of points of interest to be visited is modeled by Bayes’ rules, which take both spatial and temporal constraints into consideration. Combining this approach with Monte Carlo simulations, we conduct a study on Shanghai taxi trajectory data. Our results closely approximate the residents’ travel survey data in Shanghai. Furthermore, we reveal the spatiotemporal characteristics of nine daily activity types based on inference results, including their temporal regularities, spatial dynamics, and distributions of trip lengths and directions. In the era of big data, we encounter the dilemma of “trajectory data rich but activity information poor” when investigating human movements from various data sources. This study presents a promising step toward mining abundant activity information from individuals’ trajectories. 相似文献
Anomalous information identification is a key issue for seismic hazard prevention in underground mining. Velocity tomograms can image the stress redistribution around coal face and provide better understanding of strata failure mechanisms. In this paper, based on microseismic events recorded during mining operation, passive tomographic imagings have been presented to assess strong tremor hazard and locate high seismic activity zones around an island coal face under super-thick strata. The zones of high velocity or velocity gradient anomalies have been found to correlate well with the distribution of strong tremors, indicating that velocity tomography is feasible for seismic hazard assessment and risk region division in underground mining. 相似文献