Modeling propensity to move after job change using event history analysis and temporal GIS

The research presented in this paper analyzes the emergent residential behaviors of individual actors in a context of profound social changes in the work sphere. It incorporates a long-term view in the analysis of the relationships between social changes in the work sphere and these behaviors. The general hypothesis is that social changes produce complex changes in the long-term dynamics of residential location behavior. More precisely, the objective of this paper is to estimate the propensity for professional workers to move house after a change of workplace. Our analysis draws on data from a biographical survey using a retrospective questionnaire that enables a posteriori reconstitution of the familial, professional and residential lifelines of professional workers since their departure from their parents’ home. The survey was conducted in 1996 in the Quebec City Metropolitan Area, which, much like other Canadian cities, has experienced a substantial increase in “unstable” work, even for professionals. The approach is based on event history analysis, a Temporal Geographic Information System and exploratory spatial analysis of model’s residuals. Results indicate that 48.9% of respondents moved after a job change and that the most important factors influencing the propensity to move house after a job change are home tenure (for lone adults as for couple) and number of children (for couples only). We also found that moving is associated with changing neighborhood for owners while tenants or co-tenants tend to stay in the same neighborhood. The probability of moving 1 year after a job change is 0.10 for lone adults and couples while after 2 years, the household structure seems to have an impact: the probability increased to 0.23 for lone adults and to 0.21 for couples. The outcome of this research contributes to furthering our understanding of a familial decision (to move) following a professional event (change of job), controlling for household structure, familial, professional and spatial contexts.

The importance of fractional crystallization and magma mixing in controlling chemical differentiation at Süphan stratovolcano,eastern Anatolia,Turkey

Süphan is a 4,050 m high Pleistocene-age stratovolcano in eastern Anatolia, Turkey, with eruptive products consisting of transitional calc-alkaline to mildly alkaline basalts through trachyandesites and trachytes to rhyolites. We investigate the relative contributions of fractional crystallization and magma mixing to compositional diversity at Süphan using a combination of petrology, geothermometry, and melt inclusion analysis. Although major element chemistry shows near-continuous variation from basalt to rhyolite, mineral chemistry and textures indicate that magma mixing played an important role. Intermediate magmas show a wide range of pyroxene, olivine, and plagioclase compositions that are intermediate between those of basalts and rhyolites. Mineral thermometry of the same rocks yields a range of temperatures bracketed by rhyolite (~750°C) and basalt (~1,100°C). The linear chemical trends shown for most major and trace elements are attributed to mixing processes, rather than to liquid lines of descent from a basaltic parent. In contrast, glassy melt inclusions, hosted by a wide range of phenocryst types, display curved trends for most major elements, suggestive of fractional crystallization. Comparison of these trends to experimental data from basalts and trachyandesites of similar composition to those at Süphan indicates that melt inclusions approximate true liquid lines of descent from a common hydrous parent at pressures of ~500 MPa. Thus, the erupted magmas are cogenetic, but were generated at depths below the shallow, pre-eruptive magma storage region. We infer that chemical differentiation of a mantle-derived basalt occurred in the mid- to lower crust beneath Süphan. A variety of more and less evolved melts with ≥55 wt% SiO₂ then ascended to shallow level where they interacted. The presence of glomerocrysts in many lavas suggests that cogenetic plutonic rocks were implicated in the interaction process. Blending of diverse, but cogenetic, minerals, and melts served to obscure the true liquid lines of descent in bulk rocks. The fact that chemical variation in melt inclusions preserves deep-seated chemical differentiation indicates that inclusions were trapped in phenocrysts prior to shallow-level blending. Groundmass glasses evolved after mixing and display trends that are distinct from those of melt inclusions.     

Crystallization processes beneath the southern Mid-Atlantic Ridge (40–55°S), evidence for high-pressure initiation of crystallization

New major and trace element data are reported for a suite of basalts dredge sampled from the southern MAR (40.6-52.5°S) during cruise 9309 of the R/V Maurice Ewing and cruise 32 of the S.A. Agulhas (51-54.5°S). Samples range from aphyric to moderately porphyritic with plagioclase and olivine the dominant phenocryst and microphenocryst phases. Clinopyroxene occurs rarely as a phenocryst phase. Bulk rock and quench glass samples have major element compositions ranging from moderately primitive (Mg#=68.5) to evolved (Mg#=41.1), with a comparable range in incompatible (Zr=54-232 ppm; Nb=0.8-21 ppm) and highly compatible trace element (Ni=51-289 ppm; Cr=39-949 ppm) abundances. Incompatible trace element ratios (e.g., Zr/Nb=5.9-69; Y/Nb=0.88-29; (La/Sm)_N=0.48-2.9) indicate both enriched and depleted MORB occurring along this section of the MAR, agreeing with along-ridge radiogenic isotope ratio variations delineating compositional influences of the off-axis Discovery, and a so-called LOMU-component, and ridge-centered Shona mantle plumes (Douglass et al. 1999; Douglass and Schilling 2000). Major- and trace-element variations, particularly decreasing CaO/Al₂O₃ ratios and relatively constant Sc abundances with decreasing Mg# suggest crystallization of olivine, plagioclase, and clinopyroxene in most of these basalts prior to eruption. Liquid-lines-of-descent, derived from forward modeling of various reasonable parental magma compositions at pressures between 1 atm-8 kbar, confirm clinopyroxene as an early crystallizing phase, along with olivine and plagioclase, and its pivotal role in the compositional evolution of these basalts. Pressures deduced using algorithms of Grove et al. 1992 and Michael and Cornell 1998 indicate crystallization beneath ridge segments unaffected by mantle plumes occurred predominately at depths of 3-6 kbar (10-20 km). Crystallization beneath ridge segments affected by the Discovery and Shona mantle plumes occurred over a larger pressure range (1 atm-~7 kbar), but predominantly at crustal depths (1 atm-3 kbar), possibly due to more constant magma fluxes and higher temperatures in the crust and lithosphere in these regions favoring the existence and longevity of subaxial magma chambers.     

Cooling kinetics of garnet websterites from the Freychinède orogenic lherzolite massif,French Pyrenees

Clinopyroxene and orthopyroxene megacrysts with lamellar intergrowths of pyroxenes and garnet rarely survive in pyroxenite layers from the exposed spinel-lherzolite massifs because of the emplacement history into the crust. Such features are remarkably preserved in some thick bands (up to 1 m) from the Freychinède ultramafic body (Ariège, French Pyrenees). These bands display a symmetrical zoning from the edges to the centre due to the concurrent decrease of orthopyroxene/clinopyroxene and spinel/garnet modal ratios. Textural and chemical data suggest that the present pyroxenite parageneses resulted from subsolidus recrystallization of magmatic assemblages composed of Al-rich orthopyroxene and clinopyroxene with minor spinel. These primary assemblages were changed by subsolidus recrystallization connected with an isobaric cooling at upper-mantle depth (45–50 km) from solidus temperature (1250°C) down to steady equilibrium temperature (950° C). The primary Al-rich ortho-and clinopyroxenes behaved differently on cooling. In a first stage, orthopyroxene exsolved concomitant Al-rich clinopyroxene and garnet, whereas clinopyroxene exsolved only Al-rich orthopyroxene. The garnet exsolution in clinopyroxene host is delayed to lower temperatures. This multistage process could account for the contrasting shapes of diffusion gradients adjacent to exsolved garnet, which tend to be flat in host-orthopyroxene and steep in host-clinopyroxene. An independent thermal modelling, together with available Al-diffusion data in clinopyroxene, allows us to define a fast magmatic cooling followed by a two-stage subsolidus cooling (35° C/year^-6 from 1250° C to 1050° C and 9° C/year^-6 to 900° C). This matches the contrasted exsolution sequences observed in the pyroxene megacrysts.     

The chemical composition of specular hematite from Tilkerode, Harz, Germany: implications for the genesis of hydrothermal hematite and comparison with the Quadrilátero Ferrífero of Minas Gerais, Brazil

The black shale-hosted selenide vein-type deposit at Tilkerode, eastern Harz, Germany, has specular hematite enclosed in clausthalite (PbSe). The specular hematite has Ti and V in amounts of up to ～1 wt.% TiO₂ and ～3 wt.% V₂O₅, and subordinate, but important, contents of Mo (22–372 ppm) and B (up to 68 ppm). The Tilkerode hematite serves as a reference for hydrothermal hematite formed at relatively low temperatures (<150 °C). The composition of the Tilkerode hematite is compared with that of two generations of specular hematite from itabirite-hosted iron-ore deposits in the Quadrilátero Ferrífero of Minas Gerais, Brazil. The first generation of specular hematite represents an early tectonic hematitisation of dolomitic itabirite at Águas Claras and occurs as fine-grained crystals. Reconnaissance data indicate that the Águas Claras hematite is poorer in Ti and V, relative to the Tilkerode hematite, but has ～5–10 ppm B and ～7–11 ppm Li. The second generation of specular hematite defines the pervasive tectonic foliation of the Gongo Soco iron ore. This hematite has Ti contents of up to ～2 wt.% TiO₂ and subordinate amounts of V (62–367 ppm); its B and Li concentrations are mostly below <2 ppm B and <1 ppm Li. The presence of Ti and B in the Tilkerode hematite can be explained by highly saline, B-bearing fluids that were capable of mobilising otherwise immobile Ti. The Mo signature of the Tilkerode hematite suggests that Mo was derived from the host black shale. In Minas Gerais, B and Li were incorporated into the early tectonic hematite from saline fluids at relatively low temperatures (Águas Claras) and then released during metamorphic hematite growth at higher temperatures, as suggested by the foliation-defining hematite without B–Li signature (Gongo Soco).     

Using seasonal hindcasts to understand the origin of the equatorial cold tongue bias in CGCMs and its impact on ENSO

The cold equatorial SST bias in the tropical Pacific that is persistent in many coupled OAGCMs severely impacts the fidelity of the simulated climate and variability in this key region, such as the ENSO phenomenon. The classical bias analysis in these models usually concentrates on multi-decadal to centennial time series needed to obtain statistically robust features. Yet, this strategy cannot fully explain how the models errors were generated in the first place. Here, we use seasonal re-forecasts (hindcasts) to track back the origin of this cold bias. As such hindcasts are initialized close to observations, the transient drift leading to the cold bias can be analyzed to distinguish pre-existing errors from errors responding to initial ones. A time sequence of processes involved in the advent of the final mean state errors can then be proposed. We apply this strategy to the ENSEMBLES-FP6 project multi-model hindcasts of the last decades. Four of the five AOGCMs develop a persistent equatorial cold tongue bias within a few months. The associated systematic errors are first assessed separately for the warm and cold ENSO phases. We find that the models are able to reproduce either El Niño or La Niña close to observations, but not both. ENSO composites then show that the spurious equatorial cooling is maximum for El Niño years for the February and August start dates. For these events and at this time of the year, zonal wind errors in the equatorial Pacific are present from the beginning of the simulation and are hypothesized to be at the origin of the equatorial cold bias, generating too strong upwelling conditions. The systematic underestimation of the mixed layer depth in several models can also amplify the growth of the SST bias. The seminal role of these zonal wind errors is further demonstrated by carrying out ocean-only experiments forced by the AOCGCMs daily 10-meter wind. In a case study, we show that for several models, this forcing is sufficient to reproduce the main SST error patterns seen after 1 month in the AOCGCM hindcasts.     

Modeling climate change and biophysical impacts of crop production in the Austrian Marchfeld Region

Climate change affects major biophysical processes in agricultural crop production (e.g. evaporation of plants and soils, nutrient cycles, and growth of plants). This analysis aims to assess some of these effects by simulating regional climate projections that are integrated in the biophysical process model EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate). Statistical climate models have been developed for six weather parameters based on daily weather records of a weather station in the Austrian Marchfeld region from 1975 to 2006. These models have been used to estimate daily weather parameters for the period 2007–2038. The resulting projections have been compared to climate scenarios provided from the TYNDALL Centre for Climate Change Research, which are based on General Circulation Models (GCMs). The comparison indicates some differences, namely a smaller temperature increase and a higher precipitation amount in the TYNDALL data. Both climate datasets have been used to simulate impacts of climate change on crop yields, topsoil organic carbon content, and nitrate leaching with EPIC and thus to perform a sensitivity analysis of EPIC. Yield impacts have been assessed for four simulated crops, i.e. 6.2?t/ha for winter wheat for statistical climate projections compared to 5.7?t/ha for TYNDALL scenarios, 10.6?t/ha for corn compared to 10.5?t/ha, 3.9?t/ha for sunflower compared to 3.7?t/ha, and 4.5?t/ha for spring barley compared to 4.3?t/ha—all values as an average over the period 2007–2038. Smaller differences have been simulated for topsoil organic carbon content i.e. 55.1?t/ha for the statistical climate projections compared to 55.3?t/ha for the TYNDALL scenarios and nitrate leaching i.e. 7.1?kg/ha compared to 11.1?kg/ha. All crop yields as well as topsoil organic carbon content and nitrate leaching show highest sensitivity to temperature and solar radiation.     

Adsorption of dissolved organic matter on clay minerals as assessed by infra-red, CPMAS C NMR spectroscopy and low field T1 NMR relaxometry

Dissolved organic matter (DOM) is a very important environmental constituent due to its role in controlling factors for soil formation, mineral weathering and pollutant transport in the environment. Prediction of DOM physical-chemical properties is achieved by studying its chemical structure and spatial conformation. In the present study, dissolved organic matter extracted from compost obtained from the organic fraction of urban wastes (DOM-P) has been analysed by FT-IR, CPMAS ¹³C NMR spectroscopy and ¹H T₁ NMR relaxometry with fast field cycling (FFC) setup. While the first two spectroscopic techniques revealed the chemical changes of dissolved organic matter after adsorption either on kaolinite (DOM-K) or montmorillonite (DOM-S), the latter permitted the evaluation of the conformational variations as assessed by longitudinal relaxation time (T₁) distribution at the fixed magnetic field of 500 mT. Alterations of T₁ distributions from DOM-P to DOM-K and DOM-S were attributed to a decreasing molecular complexity following DOM-P adsorption on the clay minerals. This study applied for the first time solid state ¹H T₁ NMR relaxometry to dissolved organic matter from compost obtained from the organic fraction of urban wastes and revealed that this technique is very promising for studying environmentally relevant natural organic systems.     

Eclogite and pyroxenite xenoliths from off-craton kimberlites near the Kaapvaal Craton, South Africa

Mantle xenoliths brought to the surface by kimberlite magmas along the south-western margin of the Kaapvaal craton in South Africa can be subdivided into eclogites sensu stricto, kyanite eclogites and orthopyroxene eclogites, all containing omphacite, and garnet clinopyroxenites and garnet websterites characterised by diopside. Texturally, chemically (major elements) and thermally, we observe an evolution from garnet websterites (T_EG = 742–781 °C) towards garnet clinopyroxenites (T_EG = 715–830 °C) and to eclogites (T_EG = 707–1056 °C, mean value of 913 °C). Pressures calculated for orthopyroxene-bearing samples suggest upper mantle conditions of equilibration (P = 16–33 kb for the garnet websterites, 18 kb for a garnet clinopyroxenite and 23 kb for an opx-bearing eclogite). The overall geochemical similarity between the two groups of xenoliths (omphacite-bearing and diopside-bearing) as well as the similar trace element patterns of clinopyroxenes and garnet suggest a common origin for these rocks. Recently acquired oxygen isotope data on garnet (δ¹⁸O_gnt = 5.25–6.78 ‰ for eclogites, δ¹⁸O_gnt = 5.24–7.03 ‰ for garnet clinopyroxenites) yield values ranging from typical mantle values to other interpreted as resulting from low-temperature alteration or precursors sea-floor basalts and associated rocks. These rocks could then represent former magmatic oceanic rocks that crystallised from a same parental magma as plagioclase free diopside-bearing and plagioclase-bearing crustal rocks. During subduction, these oceanic rock protoliths equilibrated at mantle depth, with the plagioclase-bearing rocks converting to omphacite and garnet-bearing lithologies (eclogites sensu largo), whereas the plagioclase-free diopside-bearing rocks converted to diopside and garnet-bearing lithologies (garnet websterites and garnet clinopyroxenites).     

基于空间数据挖掘的三维成矿预测定量指标体系建立方法研究——以宁芜盆地钟姑矿田为例

大数据思维是直接从数据入手的一种新的思维方式,其本质是减少甚至完全屏蔽人为因素干扰,让数据说话。以往三维成矿预测中指标体系的建立多采用经验分析法,以地质模型和先验知识指导控矿特征变量取值,其准确性易受到人为影响。本文基于大数据思维,使用数据驱动方法对三维成矿预测中的找矿指标体系进行探索性研究,在钟姑矿田选择4 个大中型典型矿床,直接采用三维空间分析方法对地层和岩体的控矿地质体进行特征分析,通过计算z 轴方向三维距离场、分析岩体顶面隆起凹陷程度形态因素,确定各控矿要素与矿体之间的相关关系,获取定量指标。本研究改变了以往主观经验指导找矿的思路,尝试采用空间数据挖掘方法进行客观数据分析提出找矿指标,提高了找矿指标体系建立的科学性,此方法得到的定量指标体系可直接参与三维找矿预测模型的计算。