Expected loss‐based alarm threshold set for earthquake early warning systems

Earthquake early warning systems (EEWS) seem to have potential as tools for real‐time seismic risk management and mitigation. In fact, although the evacuation of buildings requires warning time not available in many urbanized areas threatened by seismic hazard, they may still be used for the real‐time protection of critical facilities using automatic systems in order to reduce the losses subsequent to a catastrophic event. This is possible due to the real‐time seismology, which consists of methods and procedures for the rapid estimation of earthquake features, as magnitude and location, based on measurements made on the first seconds of the P‐waves. An earthquake engineering application of earthquake early warning (EEW) may be intended as a system able to issue the alarm, if some recorded parameter exceeds a given threshold, to activate risk mitigation actions before the quake strikes at a site of interest. Feasibility analysis and design of such EEWS require the assessment of the expected loss reduction due to the security action and set of the alarm threshold. In this paper a procedure to carry out these tasks in the performance‐based earthquake engineering probabilistic framework is proposed. A merely illustrative example refers to a simple structure assumed to be a classroom. Structural damage and non‐structural collapses are considered; the security action is to shelter occupants below the desks. The cost due to a false alarm is assumed to be related to the interruption of didactic activities. Results show how the comparison of the expected losses, for the alarm‐issuance and non‐issuance cases, allows setting the alarm threshold on a quantitative and consistent basis, and how it may be a tool for the design of engineering applications of EEW. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Geologic remote sensing (Ninth Thematic Conference)

Geologic remote sensing (Ninth Thematic Conference)     

The seismic strength of the earth

Summary The seismic strength (resistance to sudden failure) of the seismically active regions of the crust and upper mantle is estimated and is found to be maximum at depths of 50 to 125 km. The pattern of strength versus depth can be explained in terms of lithospheric plate sinking beneath an ocean trench. The lack of earthquakes at depths larger than 700 km is probably due to decreasing shear stress rather than vanishing seismic strength.

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Résumé Dans cette communication on évalue la résistance à la rupture séismique des matériaux constituant l'écorce et le manteau supérieur de la Terre. Les résultats indiquent la présence d'un maximum à la profondeur de 50–125 km. La distribution de la résistance avec la profondeur peut être expliquée par la résorption de la lithosphère au-dessous d'un fossé océanique. L'absence de séismes dans les zones plus profondes (z>700 km) n'est pas due à la réduction de la résistance séismique, mais très probablement à l'insuffisance des tensions internes dans les matériaux.

     

Geochemical surveillance of active volcanoes: data on the fumaroles of Vulcano (Aeolian Islands,Italy)

Temperature and chemical composition of condensates of higher temperature fumaroles, located on the rim of the crater of Vulcano, were studied over a period of one year. Maximum temperature changed from 216°C (June 1977) to 291°C (May 1978). HCl is the main constituent of condensates which, in comparison with data from fumaroles of other volcanoes, contain also noteworthy quantities of boron and bromine. Since these chemical characteristics suggested the possible inflow of water of marine origin into the volcanic conduit, experimental data on seawater-rock reactions at high temperatures and pressures were taken into account. A model is drafted for the volcanic system, in which the occurrence of an aquifer interposed between the magma chamber and the surface is considered. The vaporization of this aquifer would feed the fumaroles giving rise, through different mixing processes with surface waters, to the observed differences in temperature and chemical composition. However, data available at present are not sufficient to support the proposed model, which must be mainly considered as a working hypothesis.     

Effective permittivity of porous media: a critical analysis of the complex refractive index model

The availability of reliable constitutive models linking the bulk electric properties of porous media to their inner structure is a key requirement for useful quantitative applications of noninvasive methods. This study focuses on the use of dielectric measurements to monitor fluid saturation changes in porous materials. A number of empirical, semi-empirical and theoretical relationships currently exists that link the bulk dielectric constant with volumetric water content. One such relationship, named complex refractive index model or Lichteneker-Rother model has been extensively applied in recent years. Here we first analyse the characteristics of this Lichteneker-Rother model by means of theoretical considerations. This theoretical analysis indicates that the Lichteneker-Rother exponent is dependent upon the geometrical properties of the porous structure, as well as the permittivity contrast between the different phases. Pore-scale modelling and experimental data further support this result. The parameter estimation robustness in presence of synthetic data error is also assessed. This demonstrates that Lichteneker-Rother parameters cannot, in general, be independently identified on the basis of bulk dielectric constant versus moisture content data.     

A structural and geophysical approach to the study of fractured aquifers in the Scansano-Magliano in Toscana Ridge, southern Tuscany, Italy

Fresh water availability has recently become a serious concern in the Italian Apennines, as various activities rely on a predictable supply. Along the ridge between Scansano and Magliano in Toscana, in southern Tuscany, the situation is further complicated by contamination of the nearby alluvial aquifers. Aquifers locally consist of thin fractured reservoirs, generally within low-permeability formations, and it can be difficult to plan the exploitation of resources based on conventional techniques. An integrated study based on geological data investigated the link between tectonics and groundwater circulation, to better define the hydrological model. After the regional identification of fault and fracture patterns, a major structure was investigated in detail to accurately map its spatial position and to understand the geometry and properties of the associated aquifer and assess its exploitation potential. The subsurface around the fault zone was clearly imaged using ground probing radar, two-dimensional and three-dimensional resistivity tomography, and three-dimensional shallow seismic surveys. The vertical and horizontal contacts between the different geological units of the Ligurian and Tuscan series were resolved with a high degree of spatial accuracy. Three-dimensional high-resolution geophysical imaging proved to be a very effective means of characterising small-scale fractured reservoirs.     

POLARIX: a pathfinder mission of X-ray polarimetry

Since the birth of X-ray astronomy, spectral, spatial and timing observation improved dramatically, procuring a wealth of information on the majority of the classes of the celestial sources. Polarimetry, instead, remained basically unprobed. X-ray polarimetry promises to provide additional information procuring two new observable quantities, the degree and the angle of polarization. Polarization from celestial X-ray sources may derive from emission mechanisms themselves such as cyclotron, synchrotron and non-thermal bremsstrahlung, from scattering in aspheric accreting plasmas, such as disks, blobs and columns and from the presence of extreme magnetic field by means of vacuum polarization and birefringence. Matter in strong gravity fields and Quantum Gravity effects can be studied by X-ray polarimetry, too. POLARIX is a mission dedicated to X-ray polarimetry. It exploits the polarimetric response of a Gas Pixel Detector, combined with position sensitivity, that, at the focus of a telescope, results in a huge increase of sensitivity. The heart of the detector is an Application-Specific Integrated Circuit (ASIC) chip with 105,600 pixels each one containing a full complete electronic chain to image the track produced by the photoelectron. Three Gas Pixel Detectors are coupled with three X-ray optics which are the heritage of JET-X mission. A filter wheel hosting calibration sources unpolarized and polarized is dedicated to each detector for periodic on-ground and in-flight calibration. POLARIX will measure time resolved X-ray polarization with an angular resolution of about 20 arcsec in a field of view of 15 × 15 arcmin and with an energy resolution of 20% at 6 keV. The Minimum Detectable Polarization is 12% for a source having a flux of 1 mCrab and 10⁵ s of observing time. The satellite will be placed in an equatorial orbit of 505 km of altitude by a Vega launcher. The telemetry down-link station will be Malindi. The pointing of POLARIX satellite will be gyroless and it will perform a double pointing during the earth occultation of one source, so maximizing the scientific return. POLARIX data are for 75% open to the community while 25% + SVP (Science Verification Phase, 1 month of operation) is dedicated to a core program activity open to the contribution of associated scientists. The planned duration of the mission is one year plus three months of commissioning and SVP, suitable to perform most of the basic science within the reach of this instrument. A nice to have idea is to use the same existing mandrels to build two additional telescopes of iridium with carbon coating plus two more detectors. The effective area in this case would be almost doubled.     

Monitoring large oil slick dynamics with moderate resolution multispectral satellite data

Accidental release of crude oil into the sea due to human activity causes water pollution and heavy damages to natural ecosystems killing birds, fish, mammals and other organisms. A number of monitoring systems are used for tracking the spills and their effects on the marine environment, as well as for collecting data for feeding models. Among them, Earth observation technologies play a crucial role and moderate spatial resolution satellite systems are able to collect images with a very short revisit time or even daily. This paper describes the use of Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer data for monitoring large oil slicks with the fluorescence/emissivity index and object-based image analysis. Two case studies are presented: the Deepwater Horizon (2010) and the Campos Basin (2011) oil spill accidents. Results show that it is possible to track the dynamics of the slick both for massive and long-lasting accidents and for smaller and very quick accidents. The main advantages of the method proposed are a straightforward implementation, a fast and semi-automated data processing and the capability of integration of daytime and nighttime acquisitions, as well as its adaptability to different sensors.     

Surface Rupture of the 1857 Southern Italian Earthquake?

In October 1862, Robert Mallet published an extensive study of a large earthquake that occurred on 16 December 1857, 150 km south-east of Naples. This event is one of the most destructive ever recorded in Italy. Although continental earthquakes of similar size are almost invariably associated with surface faulting, Mallet did not identify any surface rupture and subsequent workers have also failed to find surface traces. Using satellite images and aerial photographs as a guide, we examined two prominent Quaternary normal fault systems in the field. Flanking the Val d'Agri and the Val di Diano, both trend NW–SE and dip to the SW. The distribution of damage suggests that one or both moved in 1857. On one fault segment in Val d'Agri, we found a 2.5-m high scarp whose youthfulness and height suggest it is due to the 1857 earthquake. Comparison of the observed slip with rates derived from geomorphic evidence suggests a recurrence time for 1857 type events of about 3000 years. While the new data we provide are consistent with the event having a magnitude of M _s≈ 7.0, there are also grounds for supposing it might have been bigger.     

The circumnuclear X-ray reflectors in NGC 1068 and the Circinus galaxy

The ASCA and BeppoSAX spectra of the Circinus galaxy and NGC 1068 are analysed and compared with photoionization models based on cloudy . In the case of Circinus, a single, mildly ionized reflector can account for the line spectrum, while in NGC 1068 at least three different reflectors (with different ionization states) are needed. We suggest that the reflector in Circinus and the low ionized one in NGC 1068 are the inner and visible part of the material responsible for the X-ray absorption. With this assumption, we estimate for the inner radius of the absorber a value of 0.2 pc for Circinus and of a few parsecs for NGC 1068.