The IMO Virtual Meteor Observatory (VMO): Architectural Design

This paper describes the progress on the Virtual Meteor Observatory (VMO), a database which is being developed at ESA/RSSD to store video meteor observations and their derived orbits. The VMO was triggered by a discussion which took place at the first Meteor Orbit Determination (MOD) workshop in Roden, The Netherlands, in September 2006. Representatives of 15 groups working on the determination of meteor orbits and working with the resulting orbits discussed the design and implementation of a database which would combine different meteor orbit datasets. From this the concept of the VMO was born, which will, in the long run, allow accessing meteor observations via the internet. In the beginning, it will focus on meteor orbit data obtained with video systems. This paper presents the architectural design of the database as it has been defined in the meantime.     

Microbial Dynamics During and After In Situ Chemical Oxidation of Chlorinated Solvents

In situ chemical oxidation (ISCO) followed by a bioremediation step is increasingly being considered as an effective biphasic technology. Information on the impact of chemical oxidants on organohalide respiring bacteria (OHRB), however, is largely lacking. Therefore, we used quantitative PCR (qPCR) to monitor the abundance of OHRB (Dehalococcoides mccartyi, Dehalobacter, Geobacter, and Desulfitobacterium) and reductive dehalogenase genes (rdh; tceA, vcrA, and bvcA) at a field location contaminated with chlorinated solvents prior to and following treatment with sodium persulfate. Natural attenuation of the contaminants tetrachloroethene (PCE) and trichloroethene (TCE) observed prior to ISCO was confirmed by the distribution of OHRB and rdh genes. In wells impacted by persulfate treatment, a 1 to 3 order of magnitude reduction in the abundances of OHRB and complete absence of rdh genes was observed 21 days after ISCO. Groundwater acidification (pH<3) and increase in the oxidation reduction potential (>500 mV) due to persulfate treatment were significant and contributed to disruption of the microbial community. In wells only mildly impacted by persulfate, a slight stimulation of the microbial community was observed, with more than 1 order of magnitude increase in the abundance of Geobacter and Desulfitobacterium 36 days after ISCO. After six months, regeneration of the OHRB community occurred, however, neither D. mccartyi nor any rdh genes were observed, indicating extended disruption of biological natural attenuation (NA) capacity following persulfate treatment. For full restoration of biological NA activity, additional time may prove sufficient; otherwise addition electron donor amendment or bioaugmentation may be required.     

Atmospheric properties of ENSO: models versus observations

Two important atmospheric features affecting El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are atmospheric noise and a nonlinear atmospheric response to SST. In this article, we investigate the roles of these atmospheric features in ENSO in observations and coupled Global Climate Models (GCMs). We first quantify the most important linear couplings between the ocean and atmosphere. We then characterize atmospheric noise by its patterns of standard deviation and skewness and by spatial and temporal correlations. GCMs tend to simulate lower noise amplitudes than observations. Additionally, we investigate the strength of a nonlinear response of wind stress to SST. Some GCMs are able to simulate a nonlinear response of wind stress to SST, although weaker than in observations. These models simulate the most realistic SST skewness. The influence of the couplings and noise terms on ENSO are studied with an Intermediate Climate Model (ICM). With couplings and noise terms fitted to either observations or GCM output, the simulated climates of the ICM versions show differences in ENSO characteristics similar to differences in ENSO characteristics in the original data. In these model versions the skewness of noise is of minor influence on ENSO than the standard deviation of noise. Both the nonlinear response of wind stress to SST anomalies and the relation of noise to the background SST contribute to SST skewness. The ICM is not yet fully evolved, the results rather show that this is a promising route. Overall, atmospheric noise with realistic standard deviation pattern and spatial correlations seems to be important for simulating an irregular ENSO. Both a nonlinear atmospheric response to SST and the dependence of noise on the background SST influence the El Niño/La Niña asymmetry.     

Observed and simulated impacts of the summer NAO in Europe: implications for projected drying in the Mediterranean region

Climate models predict substantial summer precipitation reductions in Europe and the Mediterranean region in the twenty-first century, but the extent to which these models correctly represent the mechanisms of summertime precipitation in this region is uncertain. Here an analysis is conducted to compare the observed and simulated impacts of the dominant large-scale driver of summer rainfall variability in Europe and the Mediterranean, the summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO). The SNAO is defined as the leading mode of July–August sea level pressure variability in the North Atlantic sector. Although the SNAO is weaker and confined to northern latitudes compared to its winter counterpart, with a southern lobe located over the UK, it significantly affects precipitation in the Mediterranean, particularly Italy and the Balkans (correlations of up to 0.6). During high SNAO summers, when strong anticyclonic conditions and suppressed precipitation prevail over the UK, the Mediterranean region instead is anomalously wet. This enhanced precipitation is related to the presence of a strong upper-level trough over the Balkans—part of a hemispheric pattern of anomalies that develops in association with the SNAO—that leads to mid-level cooling and increased potential instability. Neither this downstream extension nor the surface influence of the SNAO is captured in the two CMIP3 models examined (HadCM3 and GFDL-CM2.1), with weak or non-existent correlations between the SNAO and Mediterranean precipitation. Because these models also predict a strong upward SNAO trend in the future, the error in their representation of the SNAO surface signature impacts the projected precipitation trends. In particular, the attendant increase in precipitation that, based on observations, should occur in the Mediterranean and offset some of the non-SNAO related drying does not occur. Furthermore, the fact that neither the observed SNAO nor summer precipitation in Europe/Mediterranean region exhibits any significant trend so far (for either the full century or the recent half of the record) does not increase our confidence in these model projections.     

Seismic demands and analysis of site effects in the Marmara region during the 1999 Kocaeli earthquake

The characteristics of the strong ground motion accelerograms from the 1999 Kocaeli earthquake are investigated in detail in this study. The emphasis is on the comparison of the response spectra for the fault normal (FN) and fault parallel (FP) components of the ground motions. The results show that the near-fault records with directivity effects characterize themselves with increased base shear demands rather than increased displacement demands for both the FN and FP components and a narrower velocity sensitive region for the FN component. This study also shows that the effectiveness of base isolation may vary from site to site and for a given site, from component to component. The site effects in the Marmara region during the 1999 Kocaeli earthquake are examined. Site amplifications are predicted by the classical spectral ratio (CSR) and the receiver function (RF) methods. The CSR method gives higher estimates for the site amplifications compared to the RF method and is in better conformity with the observed damage during the Kocaeli earthquake. The districts of Istanbul that are especially susceptible to site amplification hazard are determined. It is apparent from the results that the site amplification hazard risk is the highest for Avcilar and Bakirkoy districts. This study also shows that for sites which have the risk of soil amplification for long-period structures, liquefaction may not be beneficial as a natural base isolator, and may result in shifting the eigenperiod of the low- and mid-rise structures to the critical periods with high site amplifications. This may be especially the case for Avcilar and Bakirkoy districts. In Fatih, Bakirkoy, and Cekmece districts, the predominant period of the ground motion is calculated to be very close to the eigenperiods of the typical residential buildings. Therefore, these three districts are expected to experience heavier damages in future earthquakes due to resonance effects.     

Modelling daily temperature extremes: recent climate and future changes over Europe

Probability distributions of daily maximum and minimum temperatures in a suite of ten RCMs are investigated for (1) biases compared to observations in the present day climate and (2) climate change signals compared to the simulated present day climate. The simulated inter-model differences and climate changes are also compared to the observed natural variability as reflected in some very long instrumental records. All models have been forced with driving conditions from the same global model and run for both a control period and a future scenario period following the A2 emission scenario from IPCC. We find that the bias in the fifth percentile of daily minimum temperatures in winter and at the 95th percentile of daily maximum temperature during summer is smaller than 3 (±5°C) when averaged over most (all) European sub-regions. The simulated changes in extreme temperatures both in summer and winter are larger than changes in the median for large areas. Differences between models are larger for the extremes than for mean temperatures. A comparison with historical data shows that the spread in model predicted changes in extreme temperatures is larger than the natural variability during the last centuries.     

The effect of agricultural trade liberalisation on land-use related greenhouse gas emissions

This study explores the effects of agricultural trade liberalisation and concomitant changes in agricultural areas and livestock production on greenhouse gas emissions using the coupled LEITAP–IMAGE modelling system. The results indicate that liberalisation leads to an increase in total greenhouse gas emissions by about 6% compared to the reference scenario value in 2015. The increase in CO₂ emissions are caused by vegetation clearance due to a rapid expansion of agricultural area; mainly in South America and Southeast Asia. Increased methane emissions in the case of full liberalisation are caused by less intensive cattle farming in regions such as South America and Southeast Asia. This pattern is observed up to 2050. Total global production of milk, dairy and beef do not change with full liberalisation, but production shifts were observed from North America and Europe to South America and Southeast Asia. Results are less pronounced in variants where trade liberalisation is only implemented partially. Remarkably, our study shows in the trade barrier removal scenario larger numbers of dairy cows in Australia and New Zealand (ANZ) then with full liberalisation scenario or a variant in which only milk quota are abolished. This illustrates that different types of liberalisation need to be analysed regionally and per commodity before general conclusions on the impact of trade liberalisation can be drawn. Our study contributes new information on greenhouse gas emissions to a vast number of trade liberalisation studies that focus on economic impacts. The combined economic-environmental impacts need to be assessed in detail before general conclusions on trade liberalisation can be given.     

In situ identification of a CAI candidate in 81P/Wild 2 cometary dust by confocal high resolution synchrotron X-ray fluorescence

We detected additional CAI-like material in STARDUST mission samples of comet 81P/Wild 2. Two highly refractory cometary dust fragments were identified in the impact track 110 [C2012, 0, 110, 0, 0] by applying high resolution synchrotron induced confocal and conventional XRF analysis (HR SR-XRF). The use of a polycapillary lens in front of the detector for confocal spectroscopy dramatically improves the fidelity of particle measurements by removing contribution from the surrounding aerogel. The high spatial resolution (300 × 300 nm²; 300 × 1000 nm²) obtained allowed the detailed non-destructive in situ (trapped in aerogel) study of impacted grains at the sub-μm level.For the two largest particles of the track, the terminal particle and a second particle along the impact track, Ca concentration is up to 30 times higher than CI and Ti is enriched by a factor of 2 compared to CI. High resolution (HR) SR-XRF mapping also reveals that the highest concentrations of Ca, Ti, Fe (and Ni) measured within each grain belongs to different areas of the respective maps which indicate that the particles are composed of several chemically diverse mineral phases. This is in agreement with the finding of a complex phase assemblage of highly refractory minerals in the first ever detected Stardust mission CAI grain “Inti” of Track 25.Principle component analysis (PCA) is a powerful tool for extracting the dominant mineral components and was applied to the two grains indicating that regions in the terminal particle and the second particle are consistent with anorthite or grossite and gehlenite, monticellite or Dmitryivanovite (CaAl₂O₄), respectively.Our new findings demonstrate that the HR SR-XRF with confocal geometry and PCA analysis is capable of identifying CAI-like fragments without the need to extract particles from the aerogel matrix which is a time-consuming, complex and destructive process.Furthermore, the detection of new CAI-like fragments in the coma dust of comet 81P/Wild 2 strengthens the observation that strong mixing effects and, therefore, mass transport before or during comet formation must have occurred at least up to the region where Kuiper Belt comets formed (30 AU).     

The Venus ground-based image Active Archive: A database of amateur observations of Venus in ultraviolet and infrared light

The Venus ground-based image Active Archive is an online database designed to collect ground-based images of Venus in such a way that they are optimally useful for science. The Archive was built to support ESA's Venus Amateur Observing Project, which utilizes the capabilities of advanced amateur astronomers to collect filtered images of Venus in ultraviolet, visible and near-infrared light. These images complement the observations of the Venus Express spacecraft, which cannot continuously monitor the northern hemisphere of the planet due to its elliptical orbit with apocenter above the south pole. We present the first set of observations available in the Archive and assess the useability of the data set for scientific purposes.     

Modelling wind‐blown sediment transport around single vegetation elements

Wind erosion is an important soil erosion and hence a soil degradation problem in the Sahelian zone of West Africa. Potentially, the characteristic dryland vegetation with scattered trees and shrubs can provide for soil erosion protection from wind erosion, but so far adequate quantification of vegetation impacts is lacking. The aim of this study was to develop a model of wind‐blown soil erosion and sediment transport around a single shrub‐type vegetation element. Starting with the selection of a suitable transport equation from four possible sediment transport equations, the effects of a single vegetation element on wind speed were parameterized. The modified wind speed was then applied to a sediment transport equation to model the change in sediment mass flux around a shrub. The model was tested with field data on wind speed and sediment transport measured around isolated shrubs in a farmer's field in the north of Burkina Faso. The simple empirical equation of Radok (Journal of Glaciology 19 : 123–129, 1977) performed best in modelling soil erosion and sediment transport, both for the entire event duration and for each minute within an event. Universal values for the empirical constants in the sediment transport equation could not be obtained because of the large variability in soil and roughness characteristics. The pattern of wind speed, soil erosion and sediment transport behind a shrub and on either side of it was modelled. The wind speed changed in the lee of the vegetation element depending on its porosity, height and downwind position. Wind speed was recovered to the upstream speed at a downwind distance of 7·5 times the height of the shrub. The variability in wind direction created a ‘rotating’ area of influence around the shrub. Compared to field measurements the model predicted an 8% larger reduction in sediment transport in the lee of the vegetation element, and a 22% larger increase beside the vegetation element. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.