Swimming upstream: addressing fossil fuel supply under the UNFCCC

Reducing fossil fuel supply is necessary to meet the Paris Agreement goal to keep warming ‘well below 2°C’, yet the Agreement is silent on the topic of fossil fuels. This article outlines reasons why it is important that Parties to the Agreement find ways to more explicitly address the phasing out of fossil fuel production under the UNFCCC. It describes how countries aiming to keep fossil fuel supply in line with Paris goals could articulate and report their actions within the current architecture of the Agreement. It also outlines specific mechanisms of the Paris Agreement through which issues related to the curtailment of fossil fuel supply can be addressed. Mapping out a transition away from fossil fuels – and facilitating this transition under the auspices of the UNFCCC process – can enhance the ambition and effectiveness of national and international climate mitigation efforts.

Key policy insights

• The international commitment to limit global average temperature increases to ‘well below 2°C’ provides a strong rationale for Parties to the Paris Agreement and the UNFCCC to pursue a phase-down in fossil fuel production, not just consumption.

• Several countries have already made commitments to address fossil fuel supply, by agreeing to phase down coal or oil exploration and production.

• Integrating these commitments into the UNFCCC process would link them to global climate goals, and ensure they form part of a broader global effort to transition away from fossil fuels.

• The Paris Agreement provides a number of new opportunities for Parties to address fossil fuel production.

     

Simulating meander evolution of the Geul River (the Netherlands) using a topographic steering model

Active meandering rivers are capable of reworking and removing large quantities of valuable land. Therefore, understanding the characteristics of meandering rivers and predicting future meander behaviour can be of great value for local authorities. In this study, we apply a topographic steering meander model to the Geul River (southern Netherlands), using field data to calibrate the model. The present channel characteristics of the Geul River were mapped in the field. Cut‐banks were classified as erosive, unstable or stable. The model outcomes were compared with these field data. Several model runs were carried out, using different sets of parameter values. After studying the results and using the field data, we introduced the concept of a variable channel width in the simulation model. In reality, the river has different channel widths varying from 8 to more than 15 m. These widths are a linear function of local curvature. The model runs using a variable channel width show that the model is capable of predicting locations of lateral migration in conformity with observed active lateral migration and erosive banks. With both models, the sediment reworking time of the floodplain can be calculated. Floodplain reworking times of 200–300 years were calculated. In combination with the lateral migration rate, this reworking time is an important element in catchment sediment budget calculations. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A search for the optical and near-infrared counterpart of the accreting millisecond X-ray pulsar XTE J1751−305

We have obtained optical and near-infrared images of the field of the accreting millisecond X-ray pulsar XTE J1751−305. There are no stars in the 0.7-arcsec error circle (0.7 arcsec is the overall uncertainty arising from tying the optical and X-ray images and from the intrinsic uncertainty in the Chandra X-ray astrometric solution). We derive limiting magnitudes for the counterpart of   R > 23.1, I > 21.6, Z > 20.6, J > 19.6  and   K > 19.2  . We compare these upper limits with the magnitudes one would expect for simple models for the possible donor stars and the accretion disc subject to the reddening observed in X-rays for XTE J1751−305 and when put at the distance of the Galactic Centre (8.5 kpc). We conclude that our non-detection does not constrain any of the models for the accretion disc or possible donor stars. Deep, near-infrared images obtained during quiescence will, however, constrain possible models for the donor stars in this ultracompact system.     

The rate of grain release by pore-ice sublimation in cold-aeolian environments

Pore‐ice sublimation is a prerequisite for aeolian activity in cold environments where surface sediments hold significant amounts of frozen water. Few quantitative studies have defined the rate of grain release from cemented surfaces by pore‐ice sublimation. In 1996–1997, controlled field experiments at Presqu'ile Beach, Ontario, were implemented to measure sediment release from frozen surfaces. The release rates were compared to the local wind regime, ambient temperature and humidity. In additional field experiments, the effect of sediment water content on grain release by sublimation was examined. From the experimental results, an equation which predicts grain release based on local wind speed, ground temperature, humidity, and surface water content is proposed. Predicted release rates show reasonable agreement with natural deflation measured on the beach at Presqu'ile Provincial Park.     

Saltwater Upconing Due to Cyclic Pumping by Horizontal Wells in Freshwater Lenses

This article deals with the quantification of saltwater upconing below horizontal wells in freshwater lenses using analytical solutions as a computationally fast alternative to numerical simulations. Comparisons between analytical calculations and numerical simulations are presented regarding three aspects: (1) cyclic pumping; (2) dispersion; and (3) finite horizontal wells in a finite domain (a freshwater lens). Various hydrogeological conditions and pumping regimes within a dry half year are considered. The results show that the influence of elastic and phreatic storage (which are not taken into account in the analytical solutions) on the upconing of the interface is minimal. Furthermore, the analytical calculations based on the interface approach compare well with numerical simulations as long as the dimensionless interface upconing is below 1/3, which is in line with previous studies on steady pumping. Superimposing an analytical solution for mixing by dispersion below the well over an analytical solution based on the interface approach is appropriate in case the vertical flow velocity around the interface is nearly constant but should not be used for estimating the salinity of the pumped groundwater. The analytical calculations of interface upconing below a finite horizontal well compare well with the numerical simulations in case the distance between the horizontal well and the initial interface does not vary significantly along the well and in case the natural fluctuation of the freshwater lens is small. In order to maintain a low level of salinity in the well during a dry half year, the dimensionless analytically calculated interface upconing should stay below 0.25.     

Ore–Waste Discrimination in Epithermal Deposits Using Near-Infrared to Short-Wavelength Infrared (NIR-SWIR) Hyperspectral Imagery

Near-infrared (NIR) and short-wavelength infrared (SWIR) hyperspectral imagery can be used to detect certain alteration minerals. At epithermal deposits, the formation of alteration minerals is, in theory, related to the mineralisation of gold and silver. In order to provide foundations for developing sensor-based sorting applications at a mine that exploits such a deposit, it was investigated if NIR-SWIR hyperspectral imagery can be used to distinguish between ore and waste particles by characterising the alteration mineralogy. Maps were produced from the NIR-SWIR hyperspectral images of 827 drill core samples that show mineral occurrences, mineral absorption feature intensities and characteristics of the iron oxide mineralogy. Partial least squares discriminant analysis (PLS-DA) was applied to the information contained in these maps to investigate if this information can be used to discriminate between ore and waste. The results showed that NIR-SWIR hyperspectral imagery could be used to segment a population of waste samples by detecting occurrences of pyrophyllite, dickite and/or illite. This result can be explained by the fact that these minerals are commonly deposited further away from the ore-bearing epithermal veins, while the absence of SWIR-active minerals or detected occurrences of alunite are more closely associated with these structures. The ability to identify waste with NIR-SWIR spectral sensors means there is potential that sensor-based sorting can be used to remove this waste from mineral processing operations. Additional research is still required to assess the economic feasibility of such a sensor-based sorting application.

     

Challenges in developing China's marine protected area system

Since the 1980s, there have been continuous increases in the coverage of marine protected areas (MPAs) in China, and a total of 158 MPAs have been declared. The MPA system in China is characterized by (1) decentralised designation and management with reduced control from the central government; (2) a dominance of de jure fully protected MPAs that are often implemented as de facto multiple-use areas; and (3) a lack of objective evaluation processes. To improve China's MPA system requires an appropriate integration of fully protected and multiple-use MPAs, and an approach that balances the advantages of top-down and bottom-up approaches.     

Generic 3D interpolation of Holocene base‐level rise and provision of accommodation space,developed for the Netherlands coastal plain and infilled palaeovalleys

We present an interpolation model that describes Holocene groundwater level rise and the creation of accommodation space in 3D in the Rhine‐Meuse delta – the Netherlands. The model area (ca. 12 400 km²) covers two palaeovalleys of Late Pleistocene age (each 30 km wide) and the overlying Holocene deposits of the Rhine‐Meuse delta, the Holland coastal plain, and the Zuiderzee former lagoon. Water table rise is modelled from 10 800 to 1000 cal. BP, making use of age‐depth relations based on 384 basal peat index points, and producing output in the form of stacked palaeo groundwater surfaces, groundwater age‐depth curves, and voxel sets. These products allow to resolve (i) regional change and variations of inland water table slopes, (ii) spatial differences in the timing and pacing of transgression, and (iii) analysis of interplay of coastal, fluvial and subsidence controls on the provision of accommodation space. The interpolation model is a multi‐parameter trend function, to which a 3D‐kriging procedure of the residuals is added. This split design deploys a generic approach for modelling provision of accommodation space in deltas and coastal lowlands, aiming to work both in areas of intermediate data availability and in the most data‐rich environments. Major provision of accommodation space occurred from 8500 cal BP onwards, but a different evolution occurred in each of the two palaeovalleys. In the northern valley, creation of accommodation space began to stall at 7500 cal BP, while in the southern valley provision of new accommodation space in considerable quantities continued longer. The latter is due to the floodplain gradient that was maintained by the Rhine, which distinguishes the fluvial deltaic environment from the rest of the back‐barrier coastal plain. The interpolation results allow advanced mapping and investigation of apparent spatial differences in Holocene aggradation in larger coastal sedimentary systems. Furthermore, they provide a means to generate first‐order age information with centennial precision for 3D geological subsurface models of Holocene deltas and valley fills. As such, the interpolation is of use in studies into past and present land subsidence and into low land sedimentation.     

Adjoint formulation and constraint handling for gradient-based optimization of compositional reservoir flow

An adjoint formulation for the gradient-based optimization of oil–gas compositional reservoir simulation problems is presented. The method is implemented within an automatic differentiation-based compositional flow simulator (Stanford’s Automatic Differentiation-based General Purpose Research Simulator, AD-GPRS). The development of adjoint procedures for general compositional problems is much more challenging than for oil–water problems due to the increased complexity of the code and the underlying physics. The treatment of nonlinear constraints, an example of which is a maximum gas rate specification in injection or production wells, when the control variables are well bottom-hole pressures, poses a particular challenge. Two approaches for handling these constraints are presented—a formal treatment within the optimizer and a simpler heuristic treatment in the forward model. The relationship between discrete and continuous adjoint formulations is also elucidated. Results for four example cases of increasing complexity are presented. Improvements in the objective function (cumulative oil produced) relative to reference solutions range from 4.2 to 11.6 %. The heuristic treatment of nonlinear constraints is shown to offer a cost-effective means for obtaining feasible solutions, which are, in some cases, better than those obtained using the formal constraint handling procedure.