CMIP5模式对南海SST的模拟和预估

分析了32个CMIP5模式对南海历史海表温度(SST)的模拟能力和不同排放情景下未来SST变化的预估。通过检验各气候模式对南海历史SST增温趋势和均方差的模拟,发现大部分模式都能较好地模拟出南海20世纪历史SST的基本特征和变化规律,但也有部分模式的模拟存在较大偏差。尽管这些模拟偏差较大的模式对SST多模式集合平均的影响不大,但会增加未来情景预估的不确定性。剔除15个模式后,分析了南海SST在RCP26、RCP45和RCP85三种排放情景下的变化趋势,发现在未来百年呈明显的增温趋势,多模式集合平均的增温趋势分别为0.42、1.50和3.30℃/(100a)。这些增温趋势在空间上变化不大,但随时间并不是均匀变化的。在前两种排放情景下,21世纪前期的增温趋势明显强于后期,而在RCP85情景下,21世纪后期的增温趋势强于前期。     

南海大眼金枪鱼和黄鳍金枪鱼生物学特性及其分布

利用2010年3月—2013年2月南海金枪鱼延绳钓探捕与渔业生产监测取得的生物学数据和生产数据,对南海的大眼金枪鱼(Thunnus obesus)和黄鳍金枪鱼(Thunnus albacres)的生物学特性和渔场分布进行了研究。结果表明:(1)南海大眼金枪鱼叉长范围50—169cm,平均为111.8cm,体重范围2.45—87kg,平均为33.2kg,叉长(FL)体重(W)关系:W=1.74×10–5FL3.01,性腺成熟度Ⅱ期居多,占总尾数的45.27%。绝对怀卵量109.46—456.95万粒,摄食强度以0—2级为主。大眼金枪鱼延绳钓渔场春夏季分布于南沙西北部和南沙中西部海域;秋冬季分布于西、中沙和南沙西北部海域。渔获水深90%集中在150—400m。(2)南海黄鳍金枪鱼叉长范围41—180cm,平均为107.9cm,体重范围1.2—77.5kg,平均为27.9kg,叉长体重关系:W=2.19×10–5FL2.94,性腺成熟度以Ⅱ—Ⅳ期居多,占总尾数的89.01%,绝对怀卵量15—154万粒,摄食强度以1—2级为主。黄鳍金枪鱼延绳钓渔场春夏季分布于南沙西北部和南沙中西部海域;秋冬季分布于西、中沙、南沙西北部、南沙中西部海域。渔获水深93.75%集中在50—350m。西沙西部和南沙西北部海域是灯光围网和灯光罩网捕捞金枪鱼的重要渔场。研究认为:(1)在南海可发展小型冷海水延绳钓船,在每年10月末—次年5月初在西沙东北海域开展浅水延绳钓作业;(2)在南海的岛礁附近设置PAYAO群,开展金枪鱼灯光罩网或围网捕捞。(3)目前取得的资料仍然有限,未来仍需进一步调查,以掌握南海金枪鱼种群动态,为渔业开发和养护提供建议。     

波致液化粉质土有效应力变化的试验数据分析

海床不稳定性的现象很多都是海底液化引起的。根据之前的研究,粉土在液化之后有效应力会依然存在,关于波浪作用下海床液化之后有效应力变化的研究很少。采用波浪水槽实验,在未液化和液化2种情况下,分别施加不同波高的波浪,对底床各层位土体孔隙水压力进行采集,并对比研究。实验结果表明,液化后有效应力的相对值相对于液化前有很明显的减小,并且在深度上表现出显著的差异性,这种差异性随着波高的增大而减小。当相同深度处同一种波高作用一定时间时,有效应力会出现极大值,然后有效应力会减小。     

10年时间尺度气候预测

<正>10年时间尺度的气候预测,由于能够提供给政策制定者和有关部门与单位近期的气候变化预测,作为经济规划和社会生活安排等的参考,因此越来越受到重视。10年气候预测是气候科学中一个新的领域,一般预测方法采用:一是统计预测方法,根据前期气候变化特征,利用统计关系,计算预测未来10年的气候变化;二是动力模式预测方法,利用全球或区域气候模式,在一定初边条件和外强迫作用下,预测未来10年的气候变化;三是动力加统计     

北部湾金线鱼、深水金线鱼与日本金线鱼矢耳石形态识别的初步研究

采用2010年1～9月采自北部湾及邻近海域流刺网渔获的54尾金线鱼(Nemipterus virgatus( Houttuyn,1782))、71尾深水金线鱼(Nemi pterus bath ybius Snyder,1911)和65尾日本金线鱼(Nemi pterus ja ponicus (Bloch,1791))耳石样本,进行了椭圆傅立叶分析.耳石轮廓经图像处理后进行灰阶转换和二值化处理,消除噪点,然后解析为椭圆傅立叶标码( EFDs).采用77个EFD系数进行主成分分析和判别分析来区分3种金线鱼的耳石.结果表明,日本金线鱼幼鱼和成鱼耳石在性成熟前后存在显著的体长效应(P＜0.05),金线鱼和深水金线鱼则体长效应不显著(P＞0.05).因此在耳石椭圆傅立叶分析中,日本金线鱼采用性成熟个体样本,金线鱼和深水金线鱼采用全部样本.主成分分析中,第1、第2和第3主成分,分别解释了总变异的65.1％,15.3％和5.3％,可以将3种金线鱼耳石区分开来.EFD系数的逐步判别分析中,3种鱼的平均正判率达98.6％;交互验证结果显示,3种鱼的平均正判率达97.9％,这表明耳石椭圆傅立叶分析可以作为鱼种识别的有效工具.     

中国近海浮游桡足类中华哲水蚤（Calanussinicus Brodsky）的分子系统地理学和种群遗传结构研究

Planktonic copepod Calanus sinicus is the dominant meso-zooplankton in the Northwest Pacific Ocean. To better understand its population dynamics and phylogeographic patterns, 243 C. sinicus individuals were collected from seven locations across the shelf waters of China and its population genetics was studied by mitochondrial DNA cytochrome oxidase I(mtCOI) sequences analyses. Thirty-nine different sequences, or haplotypes, were detected with moderate haplotype diversity(h=0.749) and low nucleotide diversity(π=0.003) for all populations. The evolutionary divergence between geographic populations varied from 0.24% to 0.37%, indicative of very limited genetic differentiation. Visualized minimum spanning network(MSN) and phylogenetic analysis of all the detected haplotypes did not reveal any clear phylogeographic pattern. Furthermore, AMOVA data showed no significant spatial population differentiation existed among the individuals collected across China shelf waters. Pairwise FST values showed that population collected from northwest of the East China Sea(ECS) displayed a low difference to other populations. Mismatch distribution analyses and neutrality tests indicated that C. sinicus might undergo a demographic/population expansion. No significant population genetic structuring was detected, indicating an extensive gene flow among the C. sinicus populations. Our results provide molecular evidence for the hypothesis that C. sinicus in the northwestern South China Sea in winter is transported from the East China Sea and the Yellow Sea by the China Coastal Current during the northeast monsoon period.     

Seismic Stability of Gravity Retaining Structures by Pseudo-Dynamic Method

An analytical expression of a gravity retaining wall's seismic stability against sliding and overturning is proposed in this article. The derivation, aiming at the cohesionless soil with inclined backfill surface and nonvertical wall back, is based on limit equilibrium analysis and the pseudo-dynamic method. The variations of the sliding and overturning stability safe factors with the horizontal seismic acceleration are investigated for different seismic amplification factors, soil friction angles, wall friction angles, vertical seismic acceleration coefficients, wall back inclination angles, and backfill surface inclination angles. The results indicate that the soil friction and horizontal seismic action significantly impact the seismic stability. The increase of vertical earthquake action changes the curvature of stability factor curves. The wall friction and back inclination strengthen the gravity retaining wall's resistance to sliding and overturning failure while the backfill surface inclination plays a negative role in the seismic stability. We also found that the seismic stability safe factors calculated by the proposed method are larger but more reasonable than those by the Mononobe-Okabe method.     

Effect of Groundwater Fluctuations on Pore Pressures and Earth Pressures on Coastal Excavation Retaining Walls

Pore water and earth pressures acting on retaining structures are investigated using an efficient coastal double-layered excavation model to determine offshore excavation responses to groundwater fluctuations outside foundation pits. Total pore water pressure includes excess pore water pressure (due to groundwater fluctuations) and steady pore water pressure (due to steady seepage) determined using one-dimensional consolidation theory of double-layered soil and one-dimensional steady-state flow theory, respectively. Rankine's active and passive earth pressures are obtained from pore water pressure. This method is applicable to arbitrary groundwater fluctuation conditions. How physical parameters affect pore water pressure is numerically investigated using examples, demonstrating the method's practicality for calculating pore water and earth pressures.     

南黄海盆地二叠系地震地层特征与识别

南黄海盆地钻遇二叠系的井仅有4口,对大面积无井区(如崂山隆起)的地层特征认识不统一。从二叠系岩性特征和海陆钻井地层对比为出发点,结合二叠系内部及其上下地层的地震波组和速度特征,认为南黄海盆地二叠系分上下2段。上段为大隆—龙潭组含煤碎屑岩地层,煤系地层较薄且分布不稳定,存在相变特征,使得该组地层在地震反射特征上的规律性变差,地震上表现为较连续、中—高频反射和低速特征;下段为栖霞组灰岩夹泥页岩地层,地震上表现为较连续、中—低频反射和高速特征。在无井区识别二叠系时,抓住二叠系地层界面极性为"2负+1正"的强反射特征。下二叠统—中、上石炭统地震波组特征相似,由4~5个同相轴组成,厚度稳定(时间约为200 ms),地震波极性表现为"上正下负"的地层界面反射特征,可作为全区追踪的标准层。     

不同条件下哈维氏弧菌(Vibrio harvey)对墨吉明对虾(Fenneropenaeus merguiensis)致病性研究

为研究墨吉明对虾弧菌病的防控方法, 本文通过人工注射感染的方式, 研究不同数量哈维 氏弧菌及在不同温度、盐度、pH、不同硝酸氮、亚硝酸氮和氨氮浓度条件下哈维氏弧菌对墨吉明对 虾的致病性的影响。结果表明: 当人工感染哈维氏弧菌数量为3.16×10⁸ CFU 时, 24 h 内对虾累计死 亡率为96.67%; 哈维氏弧菌数量为3.16×10⁶ CFU 以上, 实验结束时, 对虾累计死亡率都超过了 50.00%.在20-32℃ 范围内, 随着温度升高哈维氏弧菌致病力增强, 并且低温组(20℃ 实验组与 26℃ 实验组)对虾累计死亡率显著低于高温组(32℃ 实验组)(P<0.05).在温度为(24±1)℃ 时, 盐度为 20 时对虾累计死亡率处于较低水平; 在温度为(24±1)℃, 盐度为(22±1)时, 96 h, pH 为8.0 时对虾 累计死亡率最低, 并且与另外两个实验组差异显著(P<0.05); 温度为(24±1)℃, 盐度为(22±1), 硝 酸氮对感染哈维氏弧菌的墨吉明对虾有胁迫作用; 在亚硝酸氮浓度(1.0-10.0 mg/L)、氨氮浓度 (0.5-1.5 mg/L)范围内, 哈维氏弧菌对墨吉明对虾的致病性, 随着浓度升高而增强。本实验为墨吉明 对虾弧菌病的防控提供了理论基础。