Checking vulnerability to pure loss of stability in long crested following waves: A probabilistic approach

This paper presents a probabilistic methodology for the analysis of the vulnerability of a ship to the risk of inception of pure loss of stability events. A pure loss of stability failure is modelled as the persistence of the metacentric height below a critical level for a too long time. The metacentric height is modelled as a stationary Gaussian process with a spectrum obtained from the sea elevation spectrum. The time dependent failure index is obtained under the assumption of filtered Poisson process for the occurrence of critical events. The analysis separates cases where the fluctuation of the metacentric height is narrow-band from those where the bandwidth of the spectrum is wide, with an intermediate blending. In case of narrow-band processes appropriate approximate solutions to the problem are provided, while in the wide-band cases an exponential distribution for the persistence time below the critical level is employed. A rational development for the critical persistence time is also provided considering an approximation of the roll dynamics during periods of time where the metacentric height is negative. Monte Carlo simulations are performed to check the developed approximate distributions for the persistence time, and examples of application are provided for a sample ship.     

Uncertainties in projected runoff over the conterminous United States

Projections of runoff from global multi-model ensembles provide a valuable basis for the estimation of future hydrological extremes. However, projections suffer from uncertainty that originates from different error sources along the modeling chain. Hydrological impact studies have generally partitioned these error sources into global impact and global climate model (GIM and GCM, respectively) uncertainties, neglecting other sources, including scenarios and internal variability. Using a set of GIMs driven by GCMs under different representative concentration pathways (RCPs), this study aims to partition the uncertainty of future flows coming from GIMs, GCMs, RCPs, and internal variability over the CONterminous United States (CONUS). We focus on annual maximum, median, and minimum runoff, analyzed decadally over the twenty-first century. Results indicate that GCMs and GIMs are responsible for the largest fraction of uncertainty over most of the study area, followed by internal variability and to a smaller extent RCPs. To investigate the influence of the ensemble setup on uncertainty, in addition to the full ensemble, three ensemble configurations are studied using fewer GIMs (excluding least credible GIMs in runoff representation and GIMs accounting for vegetation and CO₂ dynamics), and excluding intermediate RCPs. Overall, the use of fewer GIMs has a minor impact on uncertainty for low and medium flows, but a substantial impact for high flows. Regardless of the number of pathways considered, RCPs always play a very small role, suggesting that improvement of GCMs and GIMs and more informed ensemble selections can yield a reduction of projected uncertainties.     

Maximum Storm Surge Curve Due to Global Warming for the European North Sea Region During the 20th–21st Century

Computations of storm surges during the 20th century needs to incorporate globalwarming of about 0.6 °C ± 0.2 °C (IPCC, 2001). In order totake this global warming into consideration, the development of all storm surgesoccurred during the 20th century have been analysed. The study comprises determiningto what degree the storm surge curve and storm surge level depend on each other. Thisfact can be used to calculate a maximum storm surge curve and each single storm surgeevent can be summarised. The tendency of the surge and wind parameters do not showthat this maximum storm surge levels in the 20th century will occur earlier than predicted, however, the global warming of 0.6 °C will extend the duration of the mean storm surge curve.     

Numerical homogenization-based seismic assessment of an English-bond masonry prototype: Structural level application

A multiscale strategy is evaluated at a structural level for the analysis of unreinforced masonry structures. The mechanical characterization of the masonry is deduced from homogenization-based micro-scale finite element (FE) models. The derived data are here employed at a structural level via a discrete FE model. The discrete FE model is composed of quadrilateral rigid plates interconnected through vertical and horizontal interfaces. On the interfaces, between adjoining discrete elements, a model that accounts for the in- and out-of-plane behavior of masonry, with damage and plasticity, is adopted. Such interfaces represent the material pre- and post-peak regimes, its orthotropy, and, depending on the micro-model assumed, account by three-dimensional shear effects that are especially important for multi-leaf walls and complex regular textures. The discrete model has been implemented in an advanced structural analysis software where powerful built-in features as the arc-length method, line-search algorithm, and implicit or explicit solver schemes are available. The multi-scale model is applied for the dynamic study of a small English-bond masonry house prototype subjected to a series of consecutive earthquake records. Detailed comparisons between the experimental and numerical data are presented, including the results obtained through a continuous total strain rotating crack model. Quasi-static and dynamic analyses are conducted. Results demonstrate that when enough experimental information is available on the masonry components under tension, shear, and compression regimes, the approach predicts well the seismic structural response in terms of time-history displacements, seismic capacity, and damage patterns. The required computational cost (CPU time) is very attractive.     

On the effect of a low viscosity asthenosphere on the temporal change of the geoid—A challenge for future gravity missions

New satellite technology to measure changes in the Earth’s gravity field gives new possibilities to detect layers of low viscosity inside the Earth. We used density models for the Earth mantle based on slab history as well as on tomography and fitted the viscosity by comparison of predicted gravity to the new CHAMP gravity model. We first confirm that the fit to the observed geoid is insensitive to the presence of a low viscosity anomaly in the upper mantle as long as the layer is thin ( 200 km) and the viscosity reduction is less than two orders of magnitude. Then we investigated the temporal change in geoid by comparing two stages of slablet sinking based on subduction history or by advection of tomography derived densities and compared the spectra of the geoid change for cases with and without a low viscosity layer, but about equal fit to the observed geoid. The presence of a low viscosity layer causes relaxation at smaller wavelength and thus leads to a spectrum with relatively stronger power in higher modes and a peak around degrees 5 and 6. Comparing the spectra to the expected degree resolution for GRACE data for a 5 years mission duration shows a weak possibility to detect changes in the Earth’s gravity field due to large scale mantle circulation, provided that other causes of geoid changes can be taken into account with sufficient accuracy. A discrimination between the two viscosity cases, however, demands a new generation of gravity field observing satellites.     

Spatial modelling and uncertainty assessment of pyroclastic cover thickness in the Sorrento Peninsula

Assessing spatial variability of soil thickness is a critical issue for understanding and predicting slope processes. The present work was aimed at estimating the spatial scales at which the variation of pyroclastic cover thickness occurs in a sample area in the Sorrento Peninsula (Italy). Stochastic simulation was used to understand the spatial variability of pyroclastic cover thickness on Mount Pendolo and to assess its spatial uncertainty. In the study area, covering about 0.7 km², thickness measurements were collected using electrical resistivity tomography profiles, continuous core drillings and steel rod penetrometric tests. Variographic analysis revealed the occurrence of an anisotropic behaviour along the N50 and N140 directions. In the latter anisotropic direction, a nested variogram was fitted including (1) a long-range component which could be related to large-scale factors, like the curvature of the slope and contributing area and (2) a shorter scale variation which is probably associated with the occurrence of denudation processes or to the articulate cover/bedrock interface. To assess the spatial variability and uncertainty of pyroclastic cover thickness, a stochastic simulation algorithm was used and 500 equally probable images of cover thickness were yielded. The results showed that a better thickness distribution map can be drawn by simulating the data collected on the slope and at the footslope separately. The approach also allowed delineating the areas characterized by greater uncertainty, suggesting supplementary measurements to further improve the cover thickness distribution model, thus reducing the uncertainty.     

The Agulhas Ridge, South Atlantic: The Peculiar Structure of a Fracture Zone

The Agulhas Ridge is a prominent topographic feature that parallels the Agulhas-Falkland Fracture Zone (AFFZ). Seismic reflection and wide angle/refraction data have led to the classification of this feature as a transverse ridge. Changes in spreading rate and direction associated with ridge jumps, combined with asymmetric spreading within the Agulhas Basin, modified the stress field across the fracture zone. Moreover, passing the Agulhas Ridge’s location between 80 and 69 Ma, the Bouvet and Shona Hotspots may have supplied excess material to this part of the AFFZ thus altering the ridge’s structure. The low crustal velocities and overthickened crust of the northern Agulhas Ridge segment indicate a possible continental affinity that suggests it may be formed by a small continental sliver, which was severed off the Maurice Ewing Bank during the opening of the South Atlantic. In early Oligocene times the Agulhas Ridge was tectono-magmatically reactivated, as documented by the presence of basement highs disturbing and disrupting the sedimentary column in the Cape Basin. We consider the Discovery Hotspot, which distributes plume material southwards across the AAFZ, as a source for the magmatic material.     

Hydrodynamic and isotopic investigations for evaluating the mechanisms and amount of groundwater seepage through a rockslide dam

This study addresses the influence of landslide dams on surface water drainage and groundwater flow. In the study area of Scanno Lake and Sagittario River (Central Italy), a limestone rockslide‐avalanche formed a lake, which has an outlet that is occasionally active, showing infiltration into the rockslide dam. Several springs are present at the lake's base and are partly fed by seepage through the rockslide debris. Piezometric surveys, discharge measurements, pumping tests and chemical analyses are tools used to build a conceptual model of the groundwater flow and to evaluate the flow through the rockslide debris. Seasonal water isotopic signatures validate the assumed model, showing a mixing of infiltration recharge and groundwater seepage throughout the rockslide debris. Various recharge areas have been found for springs, pointing out those directly fed by the rockslide debris aquifer. Hypotheses about seasonal groundwater mixing between the regional carbonate aquifer and the rockslide debris aquifer are supported by isotope results. Seasonal changes in groundwater table level due to recharge and surface losses from seasonal outlet have been correlated with isotopic groundwater composition from the rockslide debris aquifer and the downstream springs; this relationship highlights the role of the rockslide dam body on the hydrodynamics of the studied area. Relationships between surface waters and groundwater in the area have been completely understood on the basis of water isotopic fingerprinting, finally obtaining a complete evaluation of groundwater renewable resources and its regimen. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.