An investigation of numerical grid effects in parameter estimation

Modern ground water characterization and remediation projects routinely require calibration and inverse analysis of large three-dimensional numerical models of complex hydrogeological systems. Hydrogeologic complexity can be prompted by various aquifer characteristics including complicated spatial hydrostratigraphy and aquifer recharge from infiltration through an unsaturated zone. To keep the numerical models computationally efficient, compromises are frequently made in the model development, particularly, about resolution of the computational grid and numerical representation of the governing flow equation. The compromise is required so that the model can be used in calibration, parameter estimation, performance assessment, and analysis of sensitivity and uncertainty in model predictions. However, grid properties and resolution as well as applied computational schemes can have large effects on forward-model predictions and on inverse parameter estimates. We investigate these effects for a series of one- and two-dimensional synthetic cases representing saturated and variably saturated flow problems. We show that "conformable" grids, despite neglecting terms in the numerical formulation, can lead to accurate solutions of problems with complex hydrostratigraphy. Our analysis also demonstrates that, despite slower computer run times and higher memory requirements for a given problem size, the control volume finite-element method showed an advantage over finite-difference techniques in accuracy of parameter estimation for a given grid resolution for most of the test problems.     

Demographic transition in Sri Lanka: a spatial perspective

Demographic transition theory involves a lagging fertility transition induced by a leading mortality transition. This article focuses on the linkage between the mortality and fertility transitions in Sri Lanka; it discusses the measurement of areal fertility, demonstrates the use of a measure not commonly used in population geography, and shows areal association between past mortality and recent fertility. The Coale or Princeton fertility indices allow a reasonably good view of structural and behavioral aspects of fertility; the Coale indices examine the contribution of structure to total fertility and the contribution of marital fertility. Although recent fertility decline has been less rapid than the post-war mortality decline, Sri Lanka's crude birth rate in 1975 was the 5th lowest in Asia. Sri Lanka experienced very high crude death rates in 1930, and quite low rates in 1950 and in subsequent years. This demonstrates an association between historic mortality and recent fertility, and that association can be linked deductively to demographic transition theory. In 1930, malaria was endemic throughout the Dry Zone of Sri Lanka, and hyperendemic in several districts. The Spearman rank correlation coefficients reveal the strongest relationship between malaria and nuptiality; this lends evidence to the notion that structural influences on fertility--such as delayed marriage--are more important than influences on marital fertility--such as coital frequency. The evidence suggests that mortalily decline in Sri Lanka led to an increase in fertility in those areas where malaria had been concentrated. This suggests the possibility that measures constituting malaria control or eradication also stimulate increased fertility; therefore, anti-malarial programs must be integrated with family planning.     

Effects of two sediment types on the fluorescence yield of two Hawaiian scleractinian corals

This study used non-invasive pulse-amplitude modulated (PAM) fluorometry to measure the maximum fluorescence yield (F(v)/F(m)) of two Hawaiian scleractinian coral species exposed to short-term sedimentation stress. Beach sand or harbor mud was applied to coral fragments in a flow-through aquarium system for 0-45 h, and changes in F(v)/F(m) were measured as a function of sediment type and length of exposure. Corals were monitored for up to 90 h to document recovery after sediment removal. Sediment deposition significantly decreased F(v)/F(m) in both species and was a function of sediment type and time. Corals that received sediment for 30 h or more had the greatest reduction in yield and exhibited little recovery over the course of the experiment. Harbor mud caused a greater reduction in Porites lobata yield than beach sand, whereas both sediment types had equally deleterious effects on Montipora capitata. Colony morphology and sediment type were important factors in determining yield reduction--P. lobata minimized damage from coarse sand grains by passive sediment rejection or accumulation in depressions in the skeleton, and fluorescence yield decreased most in corals exposed to sticky harbor mud or in colonies with flattened morphologies. Species-specific differences could not be tested due to differences in colony morphology and surface area.     

地球内核的旋转和磁性

地球发电机三维数值模拟说明,地球固内核相对于地幔的超（速）旋转是由内核和液体外核内的东向热风之间的耦合来维持的。这种机制类似于同步电动机的机制,在地球磁场的产生中也起着重要作用。     

The Spectroscopic Orbit of the Planetary Companion Transiting HD 209458

Three new silicon-bearing radicals of astrophysical interest, SiCCH and the two nearly isoenergetic isomers SiCN and SiNC, were detected in a laboratory discharge in their X2Pi ground states by Fourier transform microwave and millimeter-wave absorption spectroscopy. Hyperfine structure was observed in the low rotational transitions of the (2)Pi(1/2) ladder, and well-resolved Lambda-doubling was observed in both fine-structure ladders. With the spectroscopic constants derived from the laboratory measurements, the spectra of all three can be calculated to an uncertainty of less than 0.1 km s(-1) in equivalent radial velocity over the entire range of interest to radio astronomers. SiCN, with a dipole moment of 2.9 D, is probably the most promising of the three for astronomical discovery.     

Comparison of velocity-log data collected using impeller and electromagnetic flowmeters

Previous studies have used flowmeters in environments that are within the expectations of their published ranges. Electromagnetic flowmeters have a published range from 0.1 to 79.0 m/min, and impeller flowmeters have a published range from 1.2 to 61.0 m/min. Velocity-log data collected in five long-screened production wells in the Pleasant Valley area of southern California showed that (1) electromagnetic flowmeter results were comparable within +/-2% to results obtained using an impeller flowmeter for comparable depths; (2) the measured velocities from the electromagnetic flowmeter were up to 36% greater than the published maximum range; and (3) both data sets, collected without the use of centralizers or flow diverters, produced comparable and interpretable results. Although either method is acceptable for measuring wellbore velocities and the distribution of flow, the electromagnetic flowmeter enables collection of data over a now greater range of flows. In addition, changes in fluid temperature and fluid resistivity, collected as part of the electromagnetic flowmeter log, are useful in the identification of flow and hydrogeologic interpretation.     

简评VAN地震预报方法

评估一种地震预报方法预报准确与否的标准，不应仅仅依赖于应用抽象而严格的统计定律的方法，而忽视的地震现象的具体特点。断层破裂过程与掷股子不能相拼并论的。本文的结论是如何我们采用Ｍｕｌａｒｇｉａ，Ｇａｓｐｅｒｉｎｉ（１９９２）在评估ＶＡＮ方法时所提出的方法，那么，即使是一种理想的地震方法，也会在前兆和震间表现出某种“不确定”的联系，每次ＶＡＮ预报需单独评估，同时必须考虑所有具体情况和信息，震中位置预报