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51.
通过T639模式预报产品在内蒙古地区降水量、2 m温度、相对湿度和10 m风向、风速及降水过程预报效果的适用性研究,得出以下结论,温度和相对湿度预报的准确率较风向、风速明显偏高,温度和相对湿度预报的误差系统偏小,风速预报误差偏大的概率较大;降水量的预报准确率随降水等级增加而递减,对小雨而言,模式漏报率小于空报率,多报降水的偏差和少报降水的偏差相近。在预报要素空间分布上,风向预报的偏差顺时针偏转,其夹角小于45°,温度预报偏差总体偏小,相对湿度预报偏差由西向东表现为“+、-、+、-”的分布特征;小雨和中雨落区预报偏大,暴雨落区预报偏小;贝加尔湖冷涡强度的预报偏强,西太平洋副热带高压的强度预报偏弱,影响范围偏西偏北。 相似文献
52.
Various ensemble-based schemes are employed in data assimilation because they can use the ensemble to estimate the flow-dependent background error covariance. The most common way to generate the real-time ensemble is to use an ensemble forecast; however, this is very time-consuming. The historical sampling approach is an alternative way to generate the ensemble,by picking some snapshots from historical forecast series.With this approach, many ensemble-based assimilation schemes can be used in a deterministic forecast environment. Furthermore, considering the time that it saves, the method has the potential for operational application.However, the historical sampling approach carries with it a special kind of sampling error because, in a historical forecast, the way to integrate the ensemble members is different from the way to integrate the initial conditions at the analysis time(i.e., forcing and lateral boundary condition differences, and ‘warm start' or ‘cold start' differences). This study analyzes the results of an experiment with the Global Regional Assimilation Prediction System-Global Forecast System(GRAPES-GFS), to evaluate how the different integration configurations influence the historical sampling error for global models. The results show that the sampling error is dominated by diurnal cycle patterns as a result of the radiance forcing difference.Although the RMSEs of the sampling error are small, in view of the correlation coefficients of the perturbed ensemble, the sampling error for some variables on some levels(e.g., low-level temperature and humidity, stratospheric temperature and geopotential height and humidity), is non-negligible. The results suggest some caution must be applied, and advice taken, when using the historical sampling approach. 相似文献
53.
The physical simulation method of wave groups in a wave flume is proposed and verified by the exper- iments. The experimental results demonstrate that random waves with desired wave groupiness, which simultaneously includes the wave group height and length, can be generated satisfactorily at the specified position in a wave flume using the proposed method. Furthermore, the transformation properties of the wave groupiness along the fiat-bottomed wave flume are investigated based on the physically simulated waves. Associated proposals with the physical simulation of wave groups are given. 相似文献
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56.
Jun-De Dong Yan-Ying Zhang Si Zhang You-Shao Wang Zhi-Hao Yang Mei-Lin Wu 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2010,60(8):1673-1682
A large data set obtained by a 1-year monthly determination of water quality from Sanya Bay, South China Sea, was treated
by three-way principal component analysis aimed at exploring the spatial and temporal patterns of water quality in Sanya Bay.
Tucker3 model of optimum complexity (2, 2, 1) explaining 33.18% of the data variance, allowed interpretation of the data information
in three modes. The model explained spatial and temporal variation trends in terms of water quality variables during the study
period. Water quality in sampling station (S2) Sanya River was mainly influenced by Sanya River, and water quality in other
stations (S1, S3–S10) were mainly influenced by the waters in South China Sea. The results delineated the mouth of Sanya River
as critical from pollution point of view. The dry season from October to the next April and rainy season from May to September
have different influences on water quality in Sanya Bay. The information extracted by the three-way models would be very useful
to regional agencies in developing a strategy to carry out scientific plans for resource use based on marine system functions. 相似文献
57.
Frontal upwelling is an important phenomenon in summer in the Yellow Sea (YS) and plays an essential role in the distribution of nutrients and biological species. In this paper, a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model is applied to investigate the characteristics and influencing factors of frontal upwelling in the YS. The results show that the strength and distribution of frontal upwelling are largely dependent on the topography and bottom temperature fronts. The frontal upwelling in the YS is stronger and narrower near the eastern coast than near the western coast due to the steeper shelf slope. Moreover, external forcings, such as the meridional wind speed and air temperature in summer and the air temperature in the preceding winter and spring, have certain influences on the strength of frontal upwelling. An increase in air temperature in the previous winter and spring weakens the frontal upwelling in summer; in contrast, an increase in air temperature in summer strengthens the frontal upwelling. When the southerly wind in summer increases, the upwelling intensifies in the western YS and weakens in the eastern YS. The air temperature influences the strength of upwelling by changing the baroclinicity in the frontal region. Furthermore, the meridional wind speed in summer affects frontal upwelling via Ekman pumping. 相似文献
58.
为了改善潮流能水轮机叶片表面流动分离问题,提高其升阻比,本文通过在潮流能水轮机叶片表面加装涡流发生器,来研究涡流发生器对潮流能水轮机水动力学性能的影响。本文以NACA4418翼型为研究对象,分别建立了含VGs和不含VGs的三维模型,利用CFD方法研究了VGs的高度、长度以及相邻一对VGs之间的间距等多个方面对该翼型性能的影响。结果表明:VGs可以有效地提高翼型的最大升力系数;相邻VGs间距的增加对流动分离的抑制有积极影响。此外,通过对尾迹区流线和旋涡的分析,进一步揭示了尾迹区的流场特征。 相似文献
59.
Gracilariopsis lemaneiformis is a commercially exploited alga. Its filaceous thallus can be divided into three parts, holdfast, middle segment and tip. The growth and branch forming trend and agar content of these three parts were analyzed, respectively, in this study. The results showed that the tip had the highest growth rate and branched most, although it was the last part with branch forming ability. The holdfast formed branches earliest but slowly. Holdfast had the highest agar content. We also assessed the difference in protoplast formation and regeneration among three parts. The middle segment displayed the shortest enzymolysis time and the highest protoplast yield; whereas the tip had the strongest vitality of protoplasts formation. Juvenile plants were only obtained from the protoplasts generated from the tip. These results suggested that the differentiation and function of G. lemaneiformis was different. 相似文献
60.
荒漠河岸胡杨(Populus euphratica)树干液流的时滞效应 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
以2012年4—9月树干液流速率与环境因子的实测数据,分析了荒漠河岸胡杨(Populus euphratica)树干液流的时滞效应。结果表明:不同月份胡杨树干液流速率对不同环境因子的时滞不同;4—9月,胡杨树干液流速率峰值时间比太阳辐射峰值时间晚约1h,比空气温度峰值时间早约1h,比水汽压差峰值时间早约2h,比空气相对湿度谷值时间早约2h;对影响胡杨树干液流速率的环境因子进行了主成分分析,发现胡杨树干液流速率与1h以前的第1主成分、第2主成分相关性最高,相关系数分别为0.864、0.875;对错位前后胡杨树干液流速率与环境因子进行多元线性回归分析发现,在胡杨树干液流的数值模拟中,考虑液流相对于环境因子的时滞效应可以提高模型的拟合精度。 相似文献