Risk evaluation of China’s natural disaster systems: an approach based on triangular fuzzy numbers and stochastic simulation

To deal effectively with the evaluation problem of natural disaster risk system affected by many uncertain factors, a multivariate connection number expression is presented. This expression is based on the index samples and evaluation grade criterions of natural disaster risk system and is capable of describing the hierarchy property and fuzziness of membership relationship between index samples and evaluation grade criterions. In this proposed method, the fuzzy evaluation grade criterion problem is resolved by combining triangular fuzzy numbers with multivariate connection number theory, and triangular fuzzy numbers are used to express the discrepancy degree coefficients of connection number and evaluation index weights. Accordingly, a connection number-based evaluation method for the natural disaster system of China (named CN-TFN for short) is established using triangular fuzzy numbers and stochastic simulation. The application results show that the spatial distribution of natural disaster risk grades of China has the trend of aggrandizement from west to east of China. The economically developed and densely populated coastal areas are very likely to have a high level of natural disaster risk grade or above; thus, these areas are the key regions of the natural disaster risk management of China. The results also show that the CN-TFN is able to reflect practical conditions of the evaluation problem of natural disaster system and to provide more reliability information as compared to the existing evaluation methods. This is as a result of its comprehensive usage of various information of subjective and objective uncertainties in the evaluation process of natural disaster risk system and its expression by confidence intervals. Due to the simplicity and generalization, the CN-TFM is applicable to comprehensive risk grade evaluation of various natural disaster systems.     

Re–Os geochronology of the Cambrian stage-2 and -3 boundary in Zhijin County,Guizhou Province,China

The black shale series that formed in the Ediacaran–Cambrian transition are important stratigraphic records of the co-evolution of the paleo-ocean, -climate, and -biology. In this study, we measured Re–Os isotopic compositions of the black shale in the Niutitang Formation from the Gezhongwu section in Zhijin, Guizhou Province. The samples had high Re and Os contents, with Re ranging from 21.27 to 312.78 ng/g and Os ranging from 0.455 to 7.789 ng/g. The Re–Os isotope isochron age of 522.9 ± 8.6 Ma implies deposition of the Niutitang black shale predated the Chengjiang Fauna, providing an age constraint for the expansion of oceanic anoxia in the study area. The initial ¹⁸⁷Os/¹⁸⁸Os ratio of 0.826 ± 0.026 indicates that enhanced continental weathering might have triggered the expansion of the oceanic anoxia.     

非均匀介质地震AVO响应模拟及分析

地震AVO （amplitude versus offset）技术是一项利用振幅信息研究岩性、检测油气的地震勘探技术。常规方法基于Zoeppritz方程计算模型界面处的反射系数,而实际地下非均匀介质中地震反射特征不仅与入射角度、物性差异有关,还与入射波频率、地层厚度、薄互层结构等因素有关。为此,应用传播矩阵理论充分考虑与这些因素有关的调谐干涉等传播效应,针对实际数据计算非均匀地下介质的高精度合成地震记录,对比Zoeppritz方程、Shuey二项近似方程、Shuey三项近似方程以及传播矩阵算法的模拟效果。研究发现：在小角度入射时Zoeppritz方程、Shuey二项近似方程和Shuey三项近似方程的反射振幅和波形基本一致,大角度入射时Zoeppritz方程与Shuey三项近似方程接近;Zoeppritz算法的模拟结果在小角度入射和浅层情况下与传播矩阵算法差别较小,而在大角度入射和深层情况下与传播矩阵差别较大,说明层间多次波的调谐干涉等传播效应不可忽略。     

华北地台本溪组,太原组火山事件沉积特征及时空分布规律

作者对华北地台24个煤田及煤矿区进行了详细的研究,在本溪组及太原组中共发现6期12次火山事件层。这些火山事件沉积遍及全区,主要为凝灰岩、沉凝灰岩及凝灰质沉积岩,它们在时空分布上有一定规律。火山碎屑可能来自华北地台以北及以南若干不同的火山源,而岩浆可能来自下地壳。      

磁法在云南武定地区铁铜矿勘查中的应用

矿产资源远景调查目的主要就是圈定找矿靶区及寻找隐伏矿体,磁法勘探对于寻找铁铜矿有较大的优势。在云南武定地区开展的1：5万磁法测量工作,共圈出了四个异常区块（A、B、C、D异常区）。在B异常区块进行1：1万高精度磁测,解析延拓显示位于该区块东南部的三度体异常具有深源性,规模较大,并出现较大的磁异常梯度带,且处于主控矿构造断裂带上,划定为该区域的重点勘探远景区。     

多排抗滑桩设计中的推力分担比模拟

山区铁路修建过程中,大型滑坡常采用多排抗滑桩的工程措施进行加固治理。目前常规的计算方法无法准确计算出作用在每排抗滑桩上的推力大小以及分担比。以ANSYS大型数值有限元软件为手段,以六沾线曹家山滑坡为研究对象。通过进行数值计算的方式得到作用在每排抗滑桩上的推力大小,并统计出相应每排桩所承担的滑坡下滑推力比,该方法为抗滑桩的最终结构计算提供更为科学、合理的依据,从而避免了原方法存在的种种局限性,为多排抗滑桩的设计提供了一种行之有效的解决办法。     

内蒙古化德县沙拉哈达石英脉型钨矿床成矿地质特征

沙拉哈达钨矿区处于内蒙地轴北缘和大兴安岭地槽褶皱系的交接处.矿化主要分布在安山玢岩内,矿体主要由含矿石英脉组成,矿脉中普遍含黑钨矿、白钨矿、黄铁矿及多金属硫化物.与钨矿有关的侵人岩体主要是燕山期黑云母花岗岩及花岗斑岩.围岩蚀变以硅化、云英岩化、绢云母化为主.该矿床属高温热液成因类型.     

考虑环境效应的悬臂桩排支护结构优化设计

采用ｍ法,控制桩身最大变形,通过对给定基坑外地表最大沉降量情况下的悬臂式桩排支护结构进行优化设计,来考虑基坑开挖的环境效应。经工程验证表明,效果明显。     

季冻土区临水内、外拱护墙结构冻胀特征分析及治理

为厘清季冻土区临水内、外拱护墙结构冻胀平位移冻害机理,测试隔离层防冻害装置的有效性,在20101110-20110531、20131110-20140531、20171110-20180531三个观测年内,以长春某湖泊临水内、外拱护墙结构为研究对象,选择内、外拱护墙结构和设隔离层防冻害装置的试验内拱护墙结构三者相对比,用钢尺量距法观测三者寒期的平位移状态。结果表明：内拱护墙结构出现倾斜、裂缝导致的内向冻胀平位移冻害,其内向平位移曲线随气温均呈"半驼峰型",对应观测年持续降温-持续低温-持续升温-正温时段,内向冻胀平位移呈减小-增大-减小-稳定残余的位移运动,诱因是平冻胀应力的生成-增长-减弱-消失作用;外拱护墙结构出现较小的外向冻胀平位移,外向冻胀平位移曲线均呈"波浪型",无冻害发生,冰凸拱平冻胀应力推动外拱护墙结构压缩冻土凹拱形成外向冻胀平位移,冻土凹拱限制了外向冻胀平位移发展;设隔离层防冻害装置的试验内拱护墙结构未发生平位移冻害,其内向冻胀平位移较自然冻胀的内拱护墙结构减小83.92%,较外拱护墙结构减小51.74%,表明隔离层防冻害装置防治冻胀平位移冻害有效。