Along-shelf hydrographic anomalies in the Nordic Seas (1960–2011): locally generated or advective signals?

The northward flow of warm and saline Atlantic Water through the eastern Nordic Seas sustains a spring-bloom ecosystem that hosts some of the world’s largest commercial fish stocks. Abrupt climatic changes, or changes beyond species-specific thresholds, may have severe effects on species abundance and distribution. Here, we utilize a numerical ocean model hindcast to explore the similarities and differences between large-scale anomalies, such as great salinity anomalies, and along-shelf hydrographic anomalies of regional origin, which represent abrupt changes at subannual time scales. The large-scale anomalies enter the Nordic Seas to the south and propagate northward at a speed one order of magnitude less than the Atlantic Water current speed. On the contrary, wind-generated along-shelf anomalies appear simultaneously along the Norwegian continental shelf and propagate northward at speeds associated with topographically trapped Kelvin waves. This process involves changes in the vertical extent of the Atlantic Water along the continental slope. Such a dynamic oceanic response both affects thermal habitats and has the potential to ventilate shelf waters by modifying the cross-shelf transport of nutrients and key prey items for early stages of fish.     

Detection and Analysis of Near-Surface Explosions on the Kola Peninsula

Seismic and infrasonic observations of signals from a sequence of near-surface explosions at a site on the Kola Peninsula have been analyzed. NORSAR’s automatic network processing of these events shows a significant scatter in the location estimates and, to improve the automatic classification of the events, we have performed full waveform cross-correlation on the data set. Although the signals from the different events share many characteristics, the waveforms do not exhibit a ripple-for-ripple correspondence and cross-correlation does not result in the classic delta-function indicative of repeating signals. Using recordings from the ARCES seismic array (250 km W of the events), we find that a correlation detector on a single channel or three-component station would not be able to detect subsequent events from this source without an unacceptable false alarm rate. However, performing the correlation on each channel of the full ARCES array, and stacking the resulting traces, generates a correlation detection statistic with a suppressed background level which is exceeded by many times its standard deviation on only very few occasions. Performing f-k analysis on the individual correlation coefficient traces, and rejecting detections indicating a non-zero slowness vector, results in a detection list with essentially no false alarms. Applying the algorithm to 8 years of continuous ARCES data identified over 350 events which we confidently assign to this sequence. The large event population provides additional confidence in relative travel-time estimates and this, together with the occurrence of many events between 2002 and 2004 when a temporary network was deployed in the region, reduces the variability in location estimates. The best seismic location estimate, incorporating phase information for many hundreds of events, is consistent with backazimuth measurements for infrasound arrivals at several stations at regional distances. At Lycksele, 800 km SW of the events, as well as at ARCES, infrasound is detected for most of the events in the summer and for few in the winter. At Apatity, some 230 km S of the estimated source location, infrasound is detected for most events. As a first step to providing a Ground Truth database for this useful source of infrasound, we provide the times of explosions for over 50 events spanning 1 year.     

Crustal transect from the North Atlantic Knipovich Ridge to the Svalbard Margin west of Hornsund

The crustal structure along a 312 km transect, stretching from the axial mountains of the North Atlantic Knipovich Ridge to the continental shelf of Svalbard, has been obtained using seismic reflection data and wide angle OBS data. The resulting seismic V_p and V_s models are further constrained by a 2-D-gravity model. The principal objective of this study is to describe and resolve the physical and compositional properties of the crust in order to understand the processes and creation of oceanic crust in this extremely slow-spreading counterpart of the North Atlantic Ridge Systems. V_p is estimated to be 3.50–6.05 km/s for the upper oceanic crust (oceanic layer 2), with a marked increase away from the ridge. The measured V_p of 6.55–6.95 km/s for oceanic layer 3A and 7.10–7.25 km/s for layer 3B, both with a V_p/V_s ratio of 1.81, except for slightly higher values at the ridge axis, does not allow a clear distinction between gabbro and mantle-derived peridotite (10–40% serpentized). The thickness of the oceanic crust varies a lot along the transect from the minimum of 5.6 km to a maximum of 8.1 km. The mean thickness of 6.7 km for the oceanic crust is well above the average thickness for slow-spreading ridges (<10 mm/year half-spreading rate). The areas of increased thickness could be explained by large magma production-rates found in the zones of axial highs at the ridge axis, which also have generated the off-axial highs adjacent the ridge. We suggest that these axial and off-axial highs along the ridge control the lithological composition of the oceanic crust. This approach suggests normal gabbroic oceanic crust to be found in the areas bound by the active magma segments (the axial and off-axial highs) and mantle-derived peridotite outside these zone.     

Erik the Red's Land: the land that never was

In May this year, a Briton named Alex Hartley gamely claimed as his personal territory a tiny island in Svalbard that had been revealed by retreating ice. Svalbard's islands have a long history of claims and counter-claims by adventurers of diverse nations: the question of who owns the Arctic is an old one. In this next article in our unreviewed biographical/historical series, Frode Skarstein describes Norway's bid to wrest a corner of Greenland from the Danish crown 75 years ago.     

Influence of Antarctic ice sheet lowering on the Southern Hemisphere climate: modeling experiments mimicking the mid-Miocene

A coupled global atmosphere-ocean model is used to study the influence of the Antarctica ice sheet in a configuration that mimics that of the early Miocene on the atmospheric and oceanic circulations. Based on different climate simulations of the present day (CTR) and conducted with distinct Antarctic ice sheet topography (AIS-EXP), it is found that the reduction of the Antarctic ice sheet topography (AIS) induces warming of the Southern Hemisphere and reduces the meridional thermal gradient. Consequently, the atmospheric transient low level eddy heat flux $[(\overline{v^{\prime}T^{\prime}})]$ and the eddy momentum flux $[(\overline{u^{\prime}v^{\prime}})]$ are reduced causing the reduced transport of heat from the mid-latitudes to the pole. The stationary flow and transient wave anomalies generate changes in the SSTs which modify the rate of deep water formation, strengthening the formation of the Antarctic Bottom Water. Substantial changes are predicted to occur in the atmospheric and oceanic heat transport and a comparison between the total heat transport of the atmosphere-ocean system, as simulated by the AIS-EXP and the CTR runs, shows that the reduction of the AIS height leads to reduced Southern Hemisphere poleward and increased equatorward heat transport. These results are in agreement with reduced storm track activities and baroclinicity.     

Large-scale oil-in-ice experiment in the Barents Sea: monitoring of oil in water and MetOcean interactions

A large-scale field experiment took place in the marginal ice zone in the Barents Sea in May 2009. Fresh oil (7000 L) was released uncontained between the ice floes to study oil weathering and spreading in ice and surface water. A detailed monitoring of oil-in-water and ice interactions was performed throughout the six-day experiment. In addition, meteorological and oceanographic data were recorded for monitoring of the wind speed and direction, air temperature, currents and ice floe movements. The monitoring showed low concentrations of dissolved hydrocarbons and the predicted acute toxicity indicated that the acute toxicity was low. The ice field drifted nearly 80 km during the experimental period, and although the oil drifted with the ice, it remained contained between the ice floes.     

Characterization of permeability and porosity from nanosensor observations

In this paper, we investigate the information content in “nanosensors” with limited functionality that might be injected into a reservoir or an aquifer to provide information on the spatial distribution of properties. The two types of sensors that we consider are sensors that can potentially measure pressure at various times during transport, and sensors can be located in space by perturbations in electrical, magnetic, or acoustic properties. The intent of the study is to determine the resolution of estimates of properties that can be obtained from various combinations of sensors, various frequencies of observations, and various specifications on sensor precision.Our goal is to investigate the resolution of model estimates for various types of measurements. For this, we compute linearized estimates of the sensitivity of the observations to the porosity and permeability assuming gaussian errors in the pressure and location observations. Because the flow is one-dimensional and incompressible, observations of location are sensitive to the porosity between the injection location and the sensor location, while the location of particles is sensitive to the effective permeability over the entire interval from injector to producer. When only the pressure is measured but the location of the sensor is unknown, as might be the situation for a threshold sensor, the pressure is sensitive to both permeability and porosity only in the region between the injector and sensor.In addition to the linearized sensitivity and resolution analyses, Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling is used to estimate the posterior pdf for model variables for realistic (non-Gaussian) likelihood models. For a Markov chain of length one million samples approximately 200-500 independent samples are generated for uncertainty and resolution assessment. Results from the MCMC analysis are not in conflict with the linearized analysis.     

Bridging the ensemble Kalman filter and particle filters: the adaptive Gaussian mixture filter

The nonlinear filtering problem occurs in many scientific areas. Sequential Monte Carlo solutions with the correct asymptotic behavior such as particle filters exist, but they are computationally too expensive when working with high-dimensional systems. The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a more robust method that has shown promising results with a small sample size, but the samples are not guaranteed to come from the true posterior distribution. By approximating the model error with a Gaussian distribution, one may represent the posterior distribution as a sum of Gaussian kernels. The resulting Gaussian mixture filter has the advantage of both a local Kalman type correction and the weighting/resampling step of a particle filter. The Gaussian mixture approximation relies on a bandwidth parameter which often has to be kept quite large in order to avoid a weight collapse in high dimensions. As a result, the Kalman correction is too large to capture highly non-Gaussian posterior distributions. In this paper, we have extended the Gaussian mixture filter (Hoteit et al., Mon Weather Rev 136:317–334, 2008) and also made the connection to particle filters more transparent. In particular, we introduce a tuning parameter for the importance weights. In the last part of the paper, we have performed a simulation experiment with the Lorenz40 model where our method has been compared to the EnKF and a full implementation of a particle filter. The results clearly indicate that the new method has advantages compared to the standard EnKF.