A continuous Holocene beetle record from the site Stavsåkra,southern Sweden: implications for the last 10 600 years of forest and land use history

Beetle remains from a small bog in southern Sweden contribute information concerning the forest history of the study area. The study shows that beetles are valuable indicators of woodland structures such as openness, field vegetation, presence of dead wood and disturbance factors such as climate change, fire regimes, grazing and land use. The early Holocene, ca. 8600–6450 cal. BC, was characterised by open, pine‐dominated woodlands maintained by fire and grazing disturbances. The changes in the wetland fauna, between 8600 and 7500 cal. BC, correlate well with low lake levels in southern Sweden. During the mid Holocene, ca. 6450–2400 cal. BC, the woodlands were relatively dense, with few openings in the canopy. Around 4200 cal. BC, there was a shift to a dominance of deciduous trees. Fire and grazing pressures were particularly low. Numbers of aquatic and hygrophilic beetles indicate dry conditions between ca. 5000 and 3000 cal. BC. During the late Holocene, ca. 2400 cal. BC to present, the woodlands opened up mainly through increased land use. The main disturbance factors were fire and grazing. The beetles indicate the formation of heather‐dominated heathland around 800 cal. BC. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. This article was published online on 23 December 2008. An error was subsequently identified. This notice is included in the online and print versions to indicate that both have been corrected (5 August 2009).     

High Resolution Simulation of the Variability of Surface Energy Balance Fluxes Across Central London with Urban Zones for Energy Partitioning

The parameterization of surface heat-flux variability in urban areas relies on adequate representation of surface characteristics. Given the horizontal resolutions (e.g. $\approx $ 0.1–1 km) currently used in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, properties of the urban surface (e.g. vegetated/built surfaces, street-canyon geometries) often have large spatial variability. Here, a new approach based on Urban Zones to characterize Energy partitioning (UZE) is tested within a NWP model (Weather Research and Forecasting model; WRF v3.2.1) for Greater London. The urban land-surface scheme is the Noah/Single-Layer Urban Canopy Model (SLUCM). Detailed surface information (horizontal resolution 1 km) in central London shows that the UZE offers better characterization of surface properties and their variability compared to default WRF-SLUCM input parameters. In situ observations of the surface energy fluxes and near-surface meteorological variables are used to select the radiation and turbulence parameterization schemes and to evaluate the land-surface scheme and choice of surface parameters. For radiative fluxes, improved performance (e.g. $>$ 25 W m $^{-2}$ root-mean-square error reduction for the net radiation) is attained with UZE parameters compared to the WRF v3.2.1 default for all three methods from the simplest to the most detailed. The UZE-based spatial fluxes reproduce a priori expectations of greater energy storage and less evaporation in the dense city centre compared to the residential surroundings. Problems in Noah/SLUCM partitioning of energy between the daytime turbulent fluxes are identified with the overestimation of the turbulent sensible heat and underestimation of the turbulent latent heat fluxes.     

Statistical downscaling of daily precipitation over Sweden using GCM output

A classification of Swedish weather patterns (SWP) was developed by applying a multi-objective fuzzy-rule-based classification method (MOFRBC) to large-scale-circulation predictors in the context of statistical downscaling of daily precipitation at the station level. The predictor data was mean sea level pressure (MSLP) and geopotential heights at 850 (H850) and 700 hPa (H700) from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and from the HadAM3 GCM. The MOFRBC was used to evaluate effects of two future climate scenarios (A2 and B2) on precipitation patterns on two regions in south-central and northern Sweden. The precipitation series were generated with a stochastic, autoregressive model conditioned on SWP. H850 was found to be the optimum predictor for SWP, and SWP could be used instead of local classifications with little information lost. The results in the climate projection indicated an increase in maximum 5-day precipitation and precipitation amount on a wet day for the scenarios A2 and B2 for the period 2070–2100 compared to 1961–1990. The relative increase was largest in the northern region and could be attributed to an increase in the specific humidity rather than to changes in the circulation patterns.     

Effects of groundwater extraction from crystalline hard rock on water chemistry in an acid forested catchment at Gårdsjön,Sweden

Atmospheric deposition of S in Sweden has decreased by some 80% over the last 15 a, resulting in a general reduction of SO₄ concentrations in ground and surface water. This project, however, shows that artificial hydrological alteration in an acid wetland can reverse this trend and increase acidity and SO₄ concentrations. The experiment involved the monitoring of two catchments in relatively virgin conditions. In one of the catchments, an experiment with intensive groundwater extraction from the bedrock was carried out. During the experiment, the runoff from the catchment decreased by 50%. Furthermore, the extraction of groundwater resulted in increased seasonal aeration of the centrally located wetland, leading to oxidation of reduced S bound to the soil layers of the wetland. The S changed to solute SO₄, with a subsequent SO₄ surge. Thus, the experiment resulted in an induced acidification of the wetland and runoff waters. The extraction of groundwater significantly increased the recharge of water from the overburden, glacial till and organic soils to groundwater in the bedrock, which in turn reduced the retention time in the bedrock aquifer. These changes resulted in the chemical signature of the groundwater in the bedrock becoming similar to those of the wetland. The findings revealed deterioration in the water quality in the bedrock due to increased concentrations of dissolved organic C and SO₄, as well as a decrease in pH.     

Sand dunes and valley fills from Preboreal glacial-lake outburst floods in south-eastern Norway – beyond the aeolian paradigm

A major glacial-lake outburst flood in the Glomma valley, south-eastern Norway, took place during the final decay of the Scandinavian Ice Sheet. A combined morphological, geophysical and sedimentological study provides new insight into the variety of processes and deposits of the flood. The studied succession, some tens of metres in thickness, comprises the fill of a major flood basin that developed during hydraulic ponding. Large-scale sand dunes and bars accumulated downstream of locations with expanding flow. Most notable are 10 m high, concentric dune ridges that accumulated downstream of a topographical constriction hosting a high-velocity flow. Flow expansion at the outlet generated intense turbulence and scouring. The sand-loaded eddies helped feeding the semi-stationary dune ridges that grew vertically and downflow under high aggradation rates. Internal structures vary but reflect an overall shift in sedimentation from prevailing supercritical flow to overall subcritical flow conditions at high flood levels. Loading by water and sediment caused large-scale, synsedimentary deformation, increasing local accommodation space. Fast-falling flood levels caused stronger flow locally, while mud and fine sand settled in stagnant pools. The fall caused a significant drop in hydrostatic pressure. This triggered a release of excess pore pressure causing massive dewatering and fluidisation. Water-escape structures include numerous (sub)vertical pipes. The present study shows that outburst flood-generated, large-scale dunes can develop in well-sorted, fine sand and are thereby easily confused with aeolian deposits. Several dune fields in south-eastern Norway are here reinterpreted as the product of at least two major flood events. Sandy dune fields with similar characteristics elsewhere in Scandinavia should likely also be reinterpreted, and the role of outburst floods during the final deglaciation of Scandinavia has seemingly been underestimated. The study emphasises the importance of ponding, flow expansion, sorting, rapidly changing pressure conditions and deformation for outburst flood-related sedimentation.     

Water column monitoring near oil installations in the North Sea 2001-2004

Fisheries have been vital to coastal communities around the North Sea for centuries, but this semi-enclosed sea also receives large amounts of waste. It is therefore important to monitor and control inputs of contaminants into the North Sea. Inputs of effluents from offshore oil and gas production platforms (produced water) in the Norwegian sector have been monitored through an integrated chemical and biological effects programme since 2001. The programme has used caged Atlantic cod and blue mussels. PAH tissue residues in blue mussels and PAH bile metabolites in cod have confirmed exposure to effluents, but there was variation between years. Results for a range of biological effects methods reflected exposure gradients and indicated that exposure levels were low and caused minor environmental impact at the deployment locations. There is a need to develop methods that are sufficiently sensitive to components in produced water at levels found in marine ecosystems.     

Ethoxyresorufin-O-deethylase activity and fixed wavelength fluorescence detection of PAHs metabolites in bile in turbot (Scophthalmus maximus L.) Exposed to a dispersed topped crude oil in a Continuous Flow System

Long term effects of sublethal concentrations of oil on the marine environment have become of general concern. Cytochrome P4501A activity (EROD) in liver and fixed wavelength fluorescence detection of PAHs metabolites (FF) have in this study been used as biomarkers for dispersed oil exposure on a long term period of juvenile turbot (Scophthalmus maximus L.). A Continuous Flow System was used to carry out the study. The fish were continuously exposed to 0.125, 0.5 or 2.0 mg litre⁻¹ dispersed topped crude oil for 6, 15, 24 h, 4 and 21 days followed by a 9 days recovery period in clean seawater. No induction of the cytochrome P4501A was measured. A maximum level in bile metabolites (4- to 5-fold) was recorded after 24 h of exposure revealing thereby a detoxification process, but a decline occurred from day 4 to day 21. This study demonstrated that FF detection of PAHs metabolites in bile could be a more sensitive biomarker than EROD activity in a long term exposure to sublethal concentration of oil.     

Improved confidence in climate change projections of precipitation further evaluated using daily statistics from ENSEMBLES models

Probability density functions for daily precipitation data are used as a validation tool comparing station measurements to seven transient regional climate model runs, with a horizontal resolution of 25 km and driven by the SRES A1B scenario forcing, within the ENSEMBLES project. The validation is performed for the control period 1961–1990 for eight predefined European subregions, and a ninth region enclosing all eight subregions, with different climate characteristics. Models that best match the observations are then used for making climate change projections of precipitation distributions during the twenty-first century for each subregion separately. We find, compared to the control period, a distinct decrease in the contribution to the total precipitation for days with moderate precipitation and a distinct increase for days with more intense precipitation. This change in contribution to the total precipitation is found to amplify with time during all of the twenty-first century with an average rate of 1.1% K^?1. Furthermore, the crossover point separating the decreasing from the increasing contributions does not show any significant change with time for any specific subregion. These results are a confirmation and a specification of the results from a previous study using the same station measurements but with a regional climate model ensemble within the PRUDENCE project.     

Estimate CO2 storage capacity of the Johansen formation: numerical investigations beyond the benchmarking exercise

In this paper, Shell’s in-house reservoir simulator MoReS is applied to a recently introduced CO₂ sequestration benchmark problem entitled “Estimation of the CO₂ Storage Capacity of a Geological Formation” (Class et al. 2008). The principal objective of this benchmark is the simulation of CO₂ distribution within a modeling region, and leakage of CO₂ outside of it, for a period of 50 years. This study goes beyond the benchmarking exercise to investigate additional factors with direct relevance to CO₂ storage capacity estimations: water and gas relative permeabilities, permeability anisotropy, presence of sub-seismic features (conductive fractures, thin shale layers), regional hydrodynamic gradient, CO₂-enriched brine convection (due to brine density differences), and injection rates. The effects of hydrodynamic gradients and gravitationally induced convection only become significant over 100 s of years. This study has thus extended simulation time to 1,000 years. It is shown that grid resolution significantly impacts results. Vertical-grid refinement results in larger and thinner CO₂ plumes. Lateral-grid refinement delays leakage out of the model domain and reduces injection pressure for a given injection rate. Sub-seismic geological features such as fractures/faults and shale layers are demonstrated to have impact on CO₂ sequestration. Fractures located up-dip from the injector may lead to more leakage while the opposite may happen in the presence of fractures perpendicular to the dip. Thin shale layers produce stacked CO₂ blankets. They should be explicitly represented instead of being upscaled using a reduced vertical to horizontal permeability ratio. Results are seen to be far more sensitive to gas relative permeability and hysteresis than to variations in the water relative permeability models used. For a multi-injectors project, there is scope to optimize the phasing of injections to avoid potential fracturing near injectors.     

Climate impacts on river flow: projections for the Medway catchment,UK, with UKCP09 and CATCHMOD

The potential impact of climate change on areas of strategic importance for water resources remains a concern. Here, river flow projections for the River Medway, above Teston in southeast England are presented, which is just such an area of strategic importance. The river flow projections use climate inputs from the Hadley Centre Regional Climate Model (HadRM3) for the time period 1960–2080 (a subset of the early release UKCP09 projections). River flow predictions are calculated using CATCHMOD, the main river flow prediction tool of the Environment Agency (EA) of England and Wales. In order to use this tool in the best way for climate change predictions, model setup and performance are analysed using sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. The model's representation of hydrological processes is discussed and the direct percolation and first linear storage constant parameters are found to strongly affect model results in a complex way, with the former more important for low flows and the latter for high flows. The uncertainty in predictions resulting from the hydrological model parameters is demonstrated and the projections of river flow under future climate are analysed. A clear climate change impact signal is evident in the results with a persistent lowering of mean daily river flows for all months and for all projection time slices. Results indicate that a projection of lower flows under future climate is valid even taking into account the uncertainties considered in this modelling chain exercise. The model parameter uncertainty becomes more significant under future climate as the river flows become lower. This has significant implications for those making policy decisions based on such modelling results. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.