‘PALEOVAN’, International Continental Scientific Drilling Program (ICDP): site survey results and perspectives

Lake Van is the fourth largest terminal lake in the world (volume 607 km³, area 3570 km², maximum depth 460 m), extending for 130 km WSW–ENE on the Eastern Anatolian High Plateau, Turkey. The sedimentary record of Lake Van, partly laminated, has the potential to obtain a long and continuous continental sequence that covers several glacial–interglacial cycles (ca 500 kyr). Therefore, Lake Van is a key site within the International Continental Scientific Drilling Program (ICDP) for the investigation of the Quaternary climate evolution in the Near East (‘PALEOVAN’). As preparation for an ICDP drilling campaign, a site survey was carried out during the past years. We collected 50 seismic profiles with a total length of ～850 km to identify continuous undisturbed sedimentary sequences for potential ICDP locations. Based on the seismic results, we cored 10 different locations to water depths of up to 420 m. Multidisciplinary scientific work at positions of a proposed ICDP drill site included measurements of magnetic susceptibility, physical properties, stable isotopes, XRF scans, and pollen and spores. This core extends back to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), a more extended record than all the other Lake Van cores obtained to date. Both coring and seismic data do not show any indication that the deepest part of the lake (Tatvan Basin, Ahlat Ridge) was dry or almost dry during past times. These results show potential for obtaining a continuous undisturbed, long continental palaeoclimate record. In addition, this paper discusses the potential of ‘PALEOVAN’ to establish new results on the dynamics of lake level fluctuations, noble gas concentration in pore water of the lake sediment, history of volcanism and volcanic activities based on tephrostratigraphy, and paleoseismic and earthquake activities.     

Application of the integral variation method to satellite orbit prediction

The Integral Variation (IV) method is a technique to generate an approximate solution to initial value problems involving systems of first-order ordinary differential equations. The technique makes use of generalized Fourier expansions in terms of shifted orthogonal polynomials. The IV method is briefly described and then applied to the problem of near Earth satellite orbit prediction. In particular, we will solve the Lagrange planetary equations including the first three zonal harmonics and drag. This is a highly nonlinear system of six coupled first-order differential equations. Comparison with direct numerical integration shows that the IV method indeed provides accurate analytical approximations to the orbit prediction problem.Advanced Systems Studies; Bldg. 254EElectro-Optical Systems Laboratory; Bldg. 201.     

Representing Grounding Line Dynamics in Numerical Ice Sheet Models: Recent Advances and Outlook

Recent satellite observations of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets show accelerated ice flow and associated ice sheet thinning along coastal outlet glaciers in contact with the ocean. Both processes are the result of grounding line retreat due to melting at the grounding line (the grounding line is the contact of the ice sheet with the ocean, where it starts to float and forms an ice shelf or ice tongue). Such rapid ice loss is not yet included in large-scale ice sheet models used for IPCC projections, as most of the complex processes are poorly understood. Here we report on the state-of-the art of grounding line migration in marine ice sheets and address different ways in which grounding line migration can be attributed and represented in ice sheet models. Using one-dimensional ice flow models of the ice sheet/ice shelf system we carried out a number of sensitivity experiments with different spatial resolutions and stress approximations. These are verified with semi-analytical steady state solutions. Results show that, in large-scale finite-difference models, grounding line migration is dependent on the numerical treatment (e.g. staggered/non-staggered grid) and the level of physics involved (e.g. shallow-ice/shallow-shelf approximation).     

Structural and tectonothermal evolution of the ultrahigh-temperature Bakhuis Granulite Belt,Guiana Shield,Surinam:Palaeoproterozoic to recent

We constrain the multistage tectonic evolution of the Palaeoproterozoic UHT metamorphic(P=0.9–1.0 GPa,T>1000℃,t=2088–2031 Ma)Bakhuis Granulite Belt(BGB)in Surinam on the Guiana Shield,using large-to small-scale structures,Al-in-hornblende thermobarometry and published fluid inclusion and zircon geochronological data.The BGB forms a narrow,NE–SW striking belt between two formerly connected,~E–W oriented granite-greenstone belts,formed between converging Amazonian and West African continental masses prior to collision and Transamazonian orogeny.Inherited detrital zircon in BGB metasediments conforms agewise to Birimian zircon of West Africa and suggests derivation from the subsequently subducted African passive margin.Ultrahigh-temperature metamorphism may have followed slab break-off and asthenospheric heat advection.Peak metamorphic structures result from layer-parallel shearing and folding,reflecting initial transtensional exhumation of the subducted African margin after slab break-off.A second HT event involves intrusion,at ca.0.49 GPa,of charnockites and metagabbros at 1993–1984 Ma and a layered anorthosite at 1980 Ma,after the BGB had already cooled to<400℃.The event is related to northward subduction under the greenstone belts,along a new active margin to their south.A pronounced syntaxial bend in the new margin points northward towards the BGB and is likely the result of indentation by an anticlinorial flexural bulge of the subducting plate.Tearing of the subducting oceanic plate along this bulge explains why the charnockites are restricted to the BGB.The BGB subsequently experienced doming under an extensional detachment exposed in its southwestern border zone.Exhumation was focused in the BGB as a result of the flexural bulge in the subducting plate and localised heating of the overriding plate by charnockite magmatism.The present,straight NE–SW long-side boundaries of the BGB are superimposed mylonite zones,overprinted by pseudotachylites,previously dated at ca.1200 Ma and 950 Ma,respectively.The 1200 Ma mylonites reflect transpressional popping-up of the BGB,caused by EW-directed intraplate principal compressive stresses from Grenvillian collision preserved under the eastern Andes.Further exhumation of the BGB involved the 950 Ma pseudotachylite decorated faulting,and Phanerozoic faulting along reactivated Meso-and Neoproterozoic lineaments.     

Deriving rules from activity diary data: A learning algorithm and results of computer experiments

 Activity-based models consider travel as a derived demand from the activities households need to conduct in space and time. Over the last 15 years, computational or rule-based models of activity scheduling have gained increasing interest in time-geography and transportation research. This paper argues that a lack of techniques for deriving rules from empirical data hinders the further development of rule-based systems in this area. To overcome this problem, this paper develops and tests an algorithm for inductively deriving rules from activity-diary data. The decision table formalism is used to exhaustively represent the theoretically possible decision rules that individuals may use in sequencing a given set of activities. Actual activity patterns of individuals are supplied to the system as examples. In an incremental learning process, the system progressively improves on the selection of rules used for reproducing the examples. Computer experiments based on simulated data are performed to fine-tune rule selection and rule value update functions. The results suggest that the system is effective and fairly robust for parameter settings. It is concluded, therefore, that the proposed approach opens up possibilities to derive empirically tested rule-based models of activity scheduling. Follow-up research will be concerned with testing the system on empirical data. Received: 31 January 2001 / Accepted: 13 September 2001     

Spatial Response to Major Volcanic Events in or about AD 536, 934 and 1258: Frost Rings and Other Dendrochronological Evidence from Mongolia and Northern Siberia: Comment on R. B. Stothers, ‘Volcanic Dry Fogs, Climate Cooling, and Plague Pandemics in Europe and the Middle East’ (Climatic Change, 42, 1999)

Hypothesized large-scale climatic extremes require verification from distantregions in order toconfirm the magnitude and timing of such events. Three of the most massivehypothesized volcanic events of the past two millennia, occurring in or aboutAD 536, 934 and1258, had profound climatic and demographic repercussions over much of Europe,the MiddleEast, and other areas, according to historical accounts recently described inStothers (1998, 1999,2000) as well as other research. Here we report on frost ring and otherdendrochronologicalevidence derived from a 1738-year tree-ring chronology from Mongolia andmillennial-scaletree-ring data from northern Siberia which demonstrate that these three eventsmay have alsoimpacted conditions in these distant regions.     

Satellite altimetry for measuring river stages in remote regions

The advent in satellite altimetry with the most accurate satellite radar altimeter since 1992 and its successive missions have enabled the routine global monitoring of water-level (or stage) for surface waters and changes in the quantities of dammed water reservoirs. However, satellite altimeter measurements typically have spatial resolution capable of observing only large water bodies, such as major lakes and rivers. This paper addresses the challenges of how to investigate water levels in medium (~?1 km in width) to small (~?100 m and narrower) rivers. Comparisons between the ENVISAT altimetry ICE-1 waveform retracking height and standard water-level measurements for multiple sections of Ohio River, Columbia River, and Red River of the North in the United States (US) reveals that the satellite altimetry measured water levels agree well with those observed at nearby US Geological Survey gaging stations over the 10-year period starting from 2002. The significant results include those obtained at Thompson, North Dakota (ND, correlation coefficient or R value of 0.76 between satellite and in situ water-level measurements) and Fargo, ND (R?=?0.74), where the stream channels of Red River are merely?~?50 m and ~?40 m wide, respectively, under normal climatic conditions. In addition, demonstrations of the approach over largely inaccessible portions of Tigris–Euphrates Rivers and Helmand River in the Middle East aided in understanding hydrology in these systems. This study demonstrates the ability of satellite radar altimetry to characterize rivers in these study regions which are much narrower than 100 m in width.     

Impacts of tectonic and orbital forcing on East African climate: a comparison based on global climate model simulations

A global atmosphere–ocean model has been forced with topographic and orbital scenarios in order to evaluate the relative role of both factors for the past climate of East Africa. Forcing the model with a significantly reduced topography in Eastern and Southern Africa leads to a distinct increase in moisture transport from the Indian Ocean into the eastern part of the continent and increased precipitation in Eastern Africa. Simulations with step-wise reduced height show that this climate change occurs continuously with the change in topography, i.e., an abrupt change of local climatic features with a critical height is not found. Simulations of the last interglacial (at 125,000 years before present, i.e., the Eemian interglacial) and the last glacial inception (at 115,000 years before present) are used as examples for the role of orbital-induced changes in insolation. Here, changes in meridional temperature gradients lead to modifications in moisture transport of similar order of magnitude, but with different spatial and seasonal structure. For the Eemian interglacial, a distinct increase in summer moisture transport from the Atlantic deep into the continent at around 20°N is simulated.