Assessing meteotsunami potential of high-frequency air pressure oscillations observed in the middle Adriatic

High-resolution air pressure series collected from a triangle of middle Adriatic microbarograph stations between April 2009 and March 2011 have been analysed to extract the rapid pressure changes normally found during meteotsunamis. Five-minute air pressure tendencies were used to detect an event. Wavelet and cross-wavelet analysis showed that the energies of high-frequency pressure changes that occurred during the warm part of the year were an order of magnitude higher than those that occurred during the cold part of the year. Coherence between stations was normally found at periods longer than 1 h, while air pressure disturbances were dispersive and not coherent at shorter periods. This implies that the disturbances had little to no potential to generate meteotsunamis in the middle Adriatic area, as the eigenoscillations in bays and harbours of the region are over timescales of minutes up to a few tens of minutes.     

A Bayesian analysis of Generalized Pareto Distribution of runoff minima

Global climate change models have predicted the intensification of extreme events, and these predictions are already occurring. For disaster management and adaptation of extreme events, it is essential to improve the accuracy of extreme value statistical models. In this study, Bayes' Theorem is introduced to estimate parameters in Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD), and then the GPD is applied to simulate the distribution of minimum monthly runoff during dry periods in mountain areas of the Ürümqi River, Northwest China. Bayes' Theorem treats parameters as random variables and provides a robust way to convert the prior distribution of parameters into a posterior distribution. Statistical inferences based on posterior distribution can provide a more comprehensive representation of the parameters. An improved Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, which can solve high‐dimensional integral computation in the Bayes equation, is used to generate parameter simulations from the posterior distribution. Model diagnosis plots are made to guarantee the fitted GPD is appropriate. Then based on the GPD with Bayesian parameter estimates, monthly runoff minima corresponding to different return periods can be calculated. The results show that the improved MCMC method is able to make Markov chains converge faster. The monthly runoff minima corresponding to 10a, 25a, 50a and 100a return periods are 0.60 m³/s, 0.44 m³/s, 0.32 m³/s and 0.20 m³/s respectively. The lower boundary of 95% confidence interval of 100a return level is below zero, which implies that the Ürümqi River is likely to cease to flow when 100a return level appears in dry periods. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Liquefaction analysis and damage evaluation of embankment-type structures

The increasing importance of performance-based earthquake engineering analysis points out the necessity to assess quantitatively the risk of liquefaction of embankment-type structures. In this extreme scenario of soil liquefaction, devastating consequences are observed, e.g., excessive settlements, lateral spreading and slope instability. The present work discusses the global dynamic response and interaction of an earth structure-foundation system, so as to determine quantitatively the collapse mechanism due to foundation’s soil liquefaction. A levee-foundation system is simulated, and the influence of characteristics of input ground motion, as well as of the position of liquefied layer on the liquefaction-induced failure, is evaluated. For the current levee model, its induced damage level (i.e., induced crest settlements) is strongly related to both liquefaction apparition and dissipation of excess pore water pressure on the foundation. The respective role of input ground motion characteristics is a key component for soil liquefaction apparition, as long duration of mainshock can lead to important nonlinearity and extended soil liquefaction. A circular collapse surface is generated inside the liquefied region and extends toward the crest in both sides of the levee. Even so, when the liquefied layer is situated in depth, no significant effect on the levee response is found. This research work provides a reference case study for seismic assessment of embankment-type structures subjected to earthquake and proposes a high-performance computational framework accessible to engineers.     

星系金属丰度的研究进展(Ⅰ):定标方法

金属丰度是表征星系特征的重要参量,对于理解星系的形成与演化具有重要意义。随着观测设备的不断完善与发展,已经获得越来越多的星系(包括近邻星系、中等红移及高红移星系)金属丰度的观测资料。在光致电离模型方面也取得了很大进展．这些对于理解星系中金属及恒星成分的累积历史有非常重要的作用。有多种方法可以用来估计星系的金属丰度(主要是星际介质中气相的O丰度),介绍和评述了估计星系的O丰度的多种方法,包括电子温度的方法、R23方法以及其他一些“强线”比值的方法,并给出了相应的解析公式,同时介绍了电离星云的物理本质及由光致电离模型估计星系金属丰度的方法,还给出了估计星系的C和N元素丰度的方法。     

Observations of Hipparcos short-period red giant stars

Optical UBV(RI) _C and infrared JHK photometry is presented of a small sample of giant stars with short periods in the Hipparcos catalogue. Observations were limited, but were sufficient to rule out most of the Hipparcos periods. Radial velocity measurement were also made for a few stars, over six successive nights. Low-level variability was detected in a few stars. It is argued that in most cases the brightness variations are primarily due to temperature changes. These findings show that high-overtone pulsations in M giant stars occur, if at all, in a far more limited number of stars than proposed in the authors' previous discussion of the Hipparcos data alone.     

确定数值预报模式中扩散系数的一个客观方法

当数值预报模式的分辨率得到提高时,模式中扩散系数的数值大小必然随之改变。通常情况下,一方面,扩散系数的数值应足够大（即有下限值）,以便过滤掉模式中不想要的小尺度噪音;另一方面,扩散系数的数值应尽量小（即有上限值）,以免出现计算不稳定。本文提出一种确定高分辨率模式中扩散系数数值大小的客观方法,即＂双试验＂（twin experiment）同化方法（初始低分辨率模式的预报结果作为＂观测资料＂,新的高分辨率模式作为同化模式）,从而通过伴随变分同化方法来确定控制变量（即扩散系数）的数值大小。本文采用一维浅水模式测试和描述上述试验方案。通过低分辨率模式预报结果和高分辨率模式预报结果的比较（高、低分辨率模式预报结果的比较在低分辨率模式格点上进行）,采用最小二乘法可客观求得适用于高分辨率模式的扩散系数的＂最优＂值。数值试验结果表明,采用这种方法得到的高分辨率模式的扩散系数,不仅能过滤掉模式中不想要的小尺度噪音,而且能够避免出现计算不稳定。研究还指出,当扩散系数的大小略微超过其上限值时（这种情况在极小化迭代中有可能会出现）,计算不稳定的出现将使目标函数的数值迅速增加,并导致极小化程序收敛的失败;时间步长的减小（约20%）可以显著地改进目标函数的条件数,从而可避免极小化程序收敛的失败。     

Liquidus temperatures and phase compositions in the system Qz-Ab-Or at 5 kbar and very low water activities

Liquidus phase relations have been experimentally determined in the systems Qz-Ab-Or-(H₂O), Qz-Ab-(H₂O) and Qz-Or-(H₂O) at H₂O-undersaturated conditions (a _H2O = 0.07) and P = 5 kbar. Starting materials were homogeneous synthetic glasses containing 1 wt% H₂O. The liquidus temperatures were bracketed by crystallization and dissolution experiments. The results of kinetic studies showed that crushed glasses are the best starting materials to overcome undercooling and to minimize the temperature difference between the lowest temperature of complete dissolution (melting) and the highest temperature at which crystallization can be observed. At P = 5 kbar and a _H2O = 0.07, the Qz-Ab eutectic composition is Qz₃₂Ab₆₈ at 1095 °C (±10 °C) and the Qz-Or eutectic is Qz₃₈Or₆₂ at 1030 °C (±10 °C). The minimum temperature of the ternary system Qz-Ab-Or is 990 °C (±10 °C) and the minimum composition is Qz₃₂Ab₃₅‐ Or₃₃. The Qz content of the minimum composition in the system Qz-Ab-Or-H₂O remains constant with changing a _H2O. The normative Or content, however, increases by approximately 10 wt% with decreasing a _H2O from 1 to 0.07. Such an increase has already been observed in the system Qz-Ab-Or-H₂O-CO₂ at high a _H2O and it is concluded that the use of CO₂ to reduce water activities does not influence the composition of the minima in quartz-feldspar systems. The determined liquidus temperature in melts with 1 wt% H₂O is very similar to that obtained in previous nominally “dry” experiments. This discrepancy is interpreted to be due to problems in obtaining absolutely dry conditions. Thus, the hitherto published solidus and liquidus temperatures for “dry” conditions are probably underestimated. Received: 27 March 1997 / Accepted: 1 October 1997