Development and validation of a regional coupled atmosphere lake model for the Caspian Sea Basin

We present a validation analysis of a regional climate model coupled to a distributed one dimensional (1D) lake model for the Caspian Sea Basin. Two model grid spacings are tested, 50 and 20 km, the simulation period is 1989–2008 and the lateral boundary conditions are from the ERA-Interim reanalysis of observations. The model is validated against atmospheric as well as lake variables. The model performance in reproducing precipitation and temperature mean seasonal climatology, seasonal cycles and interannual variability is generally good, with the model results being mostly within the observational uncertainty range. The model appears to overestimate cloudiness and underestimate surface radiation, although a large observational uncertainty is found in these variables. The 1D distributed lake model (run at each grid point of the lake area) reproduces the observed lake-average sea surface temperature (SST), although differences compared to observations are found in the spatial structure of the SST, most likely as a result of the absence of 3 dimensional lake water circulations. The evolution of lake ice cover and near surface wind over the lake area is also reproduced by the model reasonably well. Improvements resulting from the increase of resolution from 50 to 20 km are most significant in the lake model. Overall the performance of the coupled regional climate—1D lake model system appears to be of sufficient quality for application to climate change scenario simulations over the Caspian Sea Basin.     

Combined three-dimensional electric and seismic tomography study on the Åknes rockslide in western Norway

We present a combined 3-D geoelectric and seismic tomography study conducted on the large Åknes rockslide in western Norway. Movements on the slope are strongly influenced by water infiltration, such that the hydrogeological regime is considered as a critical factor affecting the slope stability. The aim of our combined geophysical study was to identify and visualize the main shallow tension fractures and to determine their effect on hydraulic processes by comparing the geophysical results with information from borehole logging and tracer tests. To resolve the complex subsurface conditions of the highly fractured rock mass, a three-dimensional set-up was chosen for our seismic survey. To map the water distribution within the rock mass, a pattern of nine intersecting 2-D geoelectric profiles covered the complete unstable slope. Six of them that crossed the seismic survey area were considered as a single data set in a 3-D inversion. For both methods, smoothing-constraint inversion algorithms were used, and the forward calculations and parameterizations were based on unstructured triangular meshes. A pair of parallel shallow low-velocity anomalies (< 1400 m/s) observed in the final seismic tomogram was immediately underlain by two anomalies with resistivities <13 kΩm in the resistivity tomogram. In combination with borehole logging results, the low-velocity and resistivity anomalies could be associated with the drained and water-filled part of the tension fractures, respectively. There were indications from impeller flowmeter measurements and tracer tests that such tension fractures intersected several other water-filled fractures and were responsible for distinct changes of the main groundwater flow paths.     

Grain-size-sensitive flow and shear-stress enhancement at the brittle–ductile transition of the continental crust

Localized shear zones along low-angle normal faults have been identified in regions of extension at the brittle-ductile transition of the continental crust. The possibility of the strain localizing at a depth of 10 km is interpreted here as a consequence of an increase in the equivalent shear stress applied to the flow of the lower crust. This enhancement of the flow stress is seen as a prerequisite for the triggering of brittle deformation mechanisms leading to strain localization. The lower crust rheology used to examine this stress increase is strain-rate, temperature and grain-size dependent, due to the coupling of dislocation and diffusion creep. The model structure proposed consists of a top layer, the upper crust, gliding rigidly above a bottom layer, the lower crust, which deforms in simple shear. During a short time interval (1400 years), the equivalent shear stress is found to increase by a factor of up to 3 (67 MPa for anorthite and 17 MPa for quartz). For anorthite, this stress could explain the activation of a Mohr-Coulomb failure with a friction coefficient of 0.2, which is reasonable at the depth of 10 km. Dislocation creep is activated during a rapid change in the prescribed velocity, whereas diffusion creep dominates if the velocity is held constant, highlighting the importance of grain-size sensitivity for lower crustal rheology.     

Spin rate distribution of small asteroids

The spin rate distribution of main belt/Mars crossing (MB/MC) asteroids with diameters 3-15 km is uniform in the range from f=1 to 9.5 d⁻¹, and there is an excess of slow rotators with f<1 d⁻¹. The observed distribution appears to be controlled by the Yarkovsky-O'Keefe-Radzievskii-Paddack (YORP) effect. The magnitude of the excess of slow rotators is related to the residence time of slowed down asteroids in the excess and the rate of spin rate change outside the excess. We estimated a median YORP spin rate change of ≈0.022 d⁻¹/Myr for asteroids in our sample (i.e., a median time in which the spin rate changes by 1 d⁻¹ is ≈45 Myr), thus the residence time of slowed down asteroids in the excess is ≈110 Myr. The spin rate distribution of near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) with sizes in the range 0.2-3 km (∼5 times smaller in median diameter than the MB/MC asteroids sample) shows a similar excess of slow rotators, but there is also a concentration of NEAs at fast spin rates with f=9-10 d⁻¹. The concentration at fast spin rates is correlated with a narrower distribution of spin rates of primaries of binary systems among NEAs; the difference may be due to the apparently more evolved population of binaries among MB/MC asteroids.     

A detailed study of the duality relation for the least squares adjustment in euclidean spaces

The Euclidean spaces with their inner products are used to describe methods of least squares adjustment as orthogonal projections on finite-dimensional subspaces. A unified Euclidean space approach to the least squares adjustment methods “observation equations” and “condition equations” is suggested. Hence not only the two adjustment solutions are treated from the view-point of Euclidean space theory in a unified frame but also the existing duality relation between the methods of “observation equations” and “condition equations” is discussed in full detail. Another purpose of this paper is to contribute to the development of some familiarity with Euclidean and Hilbert space concepts. We are convinced that Euclidean and Hilbert space techniques in least squares adjustment are elegant and powerful geodetic methods.     

Changes in current regime and turbidity in response to a freshwater pulse in the eastmain estuary

In September 1984, the freshwater input to the Eastmain River (James Bay, Canada) was increased by a factor of 50 over a 6-d period during a controlled reservoir discharge. Changes to the current, salinity and turbidity regimes were monitored during the peak runoff. Estuarine salinity values fell rapidly with increasing mean flow, as did the amplitude of the semi-diurnal tidal currents. A large increase in bottom shear stress dispersed the settled suspension layer into the water column, raising concentrations of suspended matter in the estuary by a factor of 4 in 3 d. The peak values exceeded 150 mg I^?1. This led to erosion of the river silt deposits, with the export of an estimated 6 × 10⁴ metric tons of sediments. After the reduction of discharge, current values returned to their normal range within a day, whereas upstream salinity intrusion occurred at a slower rate. Horizontal diffusivities of about 100 m² s^?1 were required to match the observed lag.     

Varved sediments of Lake Yoa (Ounianga Kebir,Chad) reveal progressive drying of the Sahara during the last 6100 years

The sedimentological and geochemical properties of a 7·47 m long laminated sequence from hypersaline Lake Yoa in northern Chad have been investigated, representing a unique, continuous 6100 year long continental record of climate and environmental change in the eastern Central Sahara. These data were used to reconstruct the Mid to Late Holocene history of this currently hyper‐arid region, in order to address the question of whether the Mid Holocene environmental transition from a humid to a dry Sahara was progressive or abrupt. This study involved a suite of analyses, including petrographic and scanning electron microscope examination of thin sections, X‐ray diffraction, X‐radiography, granulometry, loss on ignition and magnetic susceptibility. The potential of micro‐X‐ray fluorescence core scanning was tested at very high resolution. Detailed microscopic investigation revealed the sedimentary processes responsible for the formation of the fine laminations, identified the season during which they were formed, and confirmed their annually rhythmic nature. High‐resolution X‐ray fluorescence core scanning allowed the distinction of each individual lamination over the entire record, opening new perspectives for the study of finely laminated sediment sequences. Geochemical and mineralogical data reveal that, due to decreasing monsoon rainfall combined with continuous and strong evaporation, the hydrologically open and fresh Mid Holocene Lake Yoa slowly evolved into the present‐day hypersaline brine depleted in calcium, which has existed for about the past 1050 years. During the oldest part of the investigated period, Lake Yoa probably contained a permanently stratified lower water column that was nevertheless disrupted relatively frequently by mixing events. Deep‐water anoxia became more stable because of increased salinity‐driven density stratification. In parallel, the sediment grain‐size proxies record a progressive increase of aeolian input in the course of the last 6100 years. Altogether, all geochemical and sedimentological indicators point to a progressive drying of the eastern Central Sahara, strengthening previous conclusions based on palaeoecological indicators.     

Earthquake awareness and perception of risk among the residents of Istanbul

Awareness and perception of risk are among the most crucial steps in the process of taking precautions at individual level for various hazards. In this study, we investigated the factors affecting better knowledge and greater risk perception about earthquakes among residents of Istanbul. A field survey was carried out, and a total of 1,123 people were interviewed in two districts of Istanbul with different seismic risk levels and from three (low, moderate and high) socio-economic levels (SEL). The findings showed that although the level of knowledge regarding earthquakes and preparedness for them was promising, it could be improved. The results indicated that future preparedness programmes should target people with lower educational and socio-economic levels. The media were the leading source of information among the respondents. Location of the home was a strong influence on individuals having above average earthquake knowledge and even more on high risk perception. Socio-economic parameters (educational level, economic status, SEL of the sub-district and tenure of the home), gender and attitude score were other factors influencing greater risk perception with regard to earthquakes.     

Sedimentology of early Pliocene sandstones in the south-western Taiwan foreland: Implications for basin physiography in the early stages of collision

This work presents sedimentological observations and interpretations on three detailed sections of the Pliocene Yutengping/Ailiaochiao formations, deposited in the early stages of collision in Taiwan. Seven facies associations record paleoenvironments of deposition ranging from nearshore to lower offshore with a strong influence of tidal reworking, even in shelfal sub-tidal environments, and a pro-delta setting characterized by mass-flows. The association of shallow facies of the upper offshore to lower shoreface with pro-delta turbidite facies sourced in the orogen to the east suggests a peculiar setting in which turbidite deposition occurred below wave base but on the shelf, in water depths of probably less than 100 m. This adds to the examples of “shallow turbidites” increasingly commonly found in foreland basins and challenges the classical view of a “deep” early underfilled foreland basin. Time series analysis on tidal rhythmites allow us to identify a yearly signal in the form of periodic changes of sand-supply, energy and bioturbation that suggests a marked seasonality possibly affecting precipitation and sediment delivery as well as temperature. The Taiwan foreland basin may also present a potentially high-resolution record in shallow sediments of the early installation of monsoonal circulation patterns in east Asia. We confirm partly the paleogeography during the early stages of collision in Taiwan: the Chinese margin displayed a pronounced non-cylindrical geometry with a large basement promontory to the west in place of the modern Taiwan mountain range. Collision in Taiwan may have happened at once along the whole length of the modern mountain range, instead of progressively from north to south as classically considered.     

Chemical and isotopic prediction of aquifer temperatures in the geothermal system at Long Valley, California

Temperatures of aquifers feeding thermal springs and wells in Long Valley, California, estimated using silica and Na-K-Ca geothermometers and warm spring mixing models, range from 160/dg to about 220°C. This information was used to construct a diagram showing enthalpy-chloride relations for the various thermal waters in the Long Valley region. The enthalpy-chloride information suggests that a 282 ± 10°C aquifer with water containing about 375 mg chloride per kilogram of water is present somewhere deep in the system. That deep water would be related to 220°C Casa Diablo water by mixing with cold water, and to Hot Creek water by first boiling with steam loss and then mixing with cold water. Oxygen and deuterium isotopic data are consistent with that interpretation. An aquifer at 282°C with 375 mg/kg chloride implies a convective heat flow in Long Valley of 6.6 × 10⁷ cal/s.