A peak acceleration threshold for soil liquefaction: lessons learned from the 2012 Emilia earthquake (Italy)

National and international seismic codes and recommendations provide criteria for liquefaction exclusion based on a peak ground acceleration (PGA) threshold value. In this paper, after a brief review of the procedures and the values suggested in those documents, a database of liquefaction case histories was created, exploiting the background data used in the most relevant verification charts, currently employed in research and professional practice. This dataset was used to identify, on the basis of simple statistical analyses, a PGA threshold on the free ground surface below which liquefaction is unlikely to occur, regardless of the geological site conditions. The calculated value, which is on the order of 0.07–0.1 g, based on the model employed to fit the data, was analyzed in light of information collected during the 2012 Emilia seismic sequence in Italy, which produced many liquefaction events triggered by low acceleration values. The case history of the Emilia earthquake advises setting a PGA threshold for code and recommendations at the lower probability level of occurrence, in the order of 1 %.     

Development and validation of a regional coupled atmosphere lake model for the Caspian Sea Basin

We present a validation analysis of a regional climate model coupled to a distributed one dimensional (1D) lake model for the Caspian Sea Basin. Two model grid spacings are tested, 50 and 20 km, the simulation period is 1989–2008 and the lateral boundary conditions are from the ERA-Interim reanalysis of observations. The model is validated against atmospheric as well as lake variables. The model performance in reproducing precipitation and temperature mean seasonal climatology, seasonal cycles and interannual variability is generally good, with the model results being mostly within the observational uncertainty range. The model appears to overestimate cloudiness and underestimate surface radiation, although a large observational uncertainty is found in these variables. The 1D distributed lake model (run at each grid point of the lake area) reproduces the observed lake-average sea surface temperature (SST), although differences compared to observations are found in the spatial structure of the SST, most likely as a result of the absence of 3 dimensional lake water circulations. The evolution of lake ice cover and near surface wind over the lake area is also reproduced by the model reasonably well. Improvements resulting from the increase of resolution from 50 to 20 km are most significant in the lake model. Overall the performance of the coupled regional climate—1D lake model system appears to be of sufficient quality for application to climate change scenario simulations over the Caspian Sea Basin.     

Climate change and infectious diseases: Can we meet the needs for better prediction?

The next generation of climate-driven, disease prediction models will most likely require a mechanistically based, dynamical framework that parameterizes key processes at a variety of locations. Over the next two decades, consensus climate predictions make it possible to produce forecasts for a number of important infectious diseases that are largely independent of the uncertainty of longer-term emissions scenarios. In particular, the role of climate in the modulation of seasonal disease transmission needs to be unravelled from the complex dynamics resulting from the interaction of transmission with herd immunity and intervention measures that depend upon previous burdens of infection. Progress is also needed to solve the mismatch between climate projections and disease projections at the scale of public health interventions. In the time horizon of seasons to years, early warning systems should benefit from current developments on multi-model ensemble climate prediction systems, particularly in areas where high skill levels of climate models coincide with regions where large epidemics take place. A better understanding of the role of climate extremes on infectious diseases is urgently needed.     

Effects of a 2 × CO2 climate on two large lake systems: Pyramid Lake, Nevada, and Yellowstone Lake, Wyoming

The possible effects of trace-gas induced climatic changes on Pyramid and Yellowstone Lakes are assessed using a model of lake temperature. The model is driven by years of hourly meteorological data obtained directly from the output of double-CO₂ experiments (2 × CO₂) conducted with a regional climate model nested in a general circulation model. The regional atmospheric model is the climate version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research/Pennsylvania State University mesoscale model, MM4.Average annual surface temperature of Pyramid Lake for the 2 × CO₂ climate is 15.5 ± 5.4°C (±1 σ), 2.8°C higher than the control. Annual overturn of the lake ceases as a result of these higher temperatures for the 2 × CO₂ climate. Evaporation increases from 1400 mm yr⁻¹ in the control to 1595 mm yr⁻¹ in the 2 × CO₂ simulation, but net water supplied to the Pyramid Lake basin increases from −6 mm yr⁻¹ in the control to +27 mm yr⁻¹ in the 2 × CO₂ simulation due to increased precipitation.For the open water periods, the average annual surface temperature of Yellowstone Lake is 13.2 ± 5.1°C for the 2 × CO₂ climate, a temperature 1.6°C higher than the control. The annual duration of ice cover on the lake is 152 days in the 2 × CO₂ simulation, a reduction of 44 days relative to the control. Warming of the lake for the 2 × CO₂ climate is mostly confined to the near-surface. Simulated spring overturn for the 2 × CO₂ climate occurs earlier in the year and fall overturn later than in the control. Evaporation increases from 544 mm yr⁻¹ to 600 mm yr⁻¹ in the 2 × CO₂ simulation, but net water supplied to the Yellowstone Lake basin increases from +373 mm yr⁻¹ in the control to +619 mm yr⁻¹ due to increased precipitation. The effects of these climatic changes suggest possible deterioration of water quality and productivity in Pyramid Lake and possible enhancement of productivity in Yellowstone Lake.     

Characterization of potential zones of dust generation at eleven stations in the southern Sahara

Summary Synoptic wind data for multi-decadal periods at eleven stations located in the southern Sahara region (Agadez, Atar, Bilma, Dori, Gao, Kayes, Nema, Niamey, Nouadhibou, Ouagadougou and Tessalit) are used to study the monthly dust deflation power over the region. We found that, regardless of the conditions of the soil, the deflation power (or wind efficiency) is not sufficient to generate significant amounts of aerosols south of 15°N. North of this latitude, the deflation power is much larger, with potential zones of either very strong deflation (Nouadhibou and Bilma) or severe deflation (Gao, Tessalit, Nema, Atar, Agadez). Stations in the Sahel region such as Gao, Agadez and Tessalit are characterized by a gradual reinforcement of the deflation power between 1970 and 1984 in correspondence of increasing desertification over the region. During this same period, Bilma, a well know region of dust source, experienced a major reduction in deflation power due to shifts in large scale wind patterns.     

Land surface coupling in regional climate simulations of the West African monsoon

Coupling of the Community Land Model (CLM3) to the ICTP Regional Climate Model (RegCM3) substantially improves the simulation of mean climate over West Africa relative to an older version of RegCM3 coupled to the Biosphere Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS). Two 10-year simulations (1992–2001) show that the seasonal timing and magnitude of mean monsoon precipitation more closely match observations when the new land surface scheme is implemented. Specifically, RegCM3–CLM3 improves the timing of the monsoon advance and retreat across the Guinean Coast, and reduces a positive precipitation bias in the Sahel and Northern Africa. As a result, simulated temperatures are higher, thereby reducing the negative temperature bias found in the Guinean Coast and Sahel in RegCM3–BATS. In the RegCM3–BATS simulation, warmer temperatures in northern latitudes and wetter soils near the coast create excessively strong temperature and moist static energy gradients, which shifts the African Easterly Jet further north than observed. In the RegCM3–CLM3 simulation, the migration and position of the African Easterly Jet more closely match reanalysis winds. This improvement is triggered by drier soil conditions in the RegCM3–CLM3 simulation and an increase in evapotranspiration per unit precipitation. These results indicate that atmosphere–land surface coupling has the ability to impact regional-scale circulation and precipitation in regions exhibiting strong hydroclimatic gradients.     

Agricultural Land Use Effects on Climate over China as Simulated by a Regional Climate Model

The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3) is used to investigate the climate effects of land use change related to agriculture over China. The model is driven by the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecast 40-yr Re-Analysis (ERA40)data. Two sets of experiments for 15 yr (1987-2001) are conducted, one with the potential vegetation cover and the other the agricultural land use (AG). The results show that the AG effects on temperature are weak over northern China while in southern China a significant cooling is found in both winter (December-January-February) and summer (June-July-August). The mean cooling in the sub-regions of South China (SC) in winter and the sub-regions of Southeast (SE) China in summer are found to be the greatest,up to 0.5℃ and 0.8℃, respectively. In general, the change of AG leads to a decrease of annual mean temperature by 0.5-1℃ in southern China. Slight change of precipitation in western China and a decrease of precipitation in eastern China are simulated in winter, with the maximum reduction reaching -7.5% over SE. A general decrease of precipitation over northern China and an increase over southern China are simulated in summer,in particular over SE where the increase of precipitation can be up to 7.3%. The AG effects on temperature and precipitation show strong interannual variability. Comparison of the climate effects between AG and the present-day land use (LU) is also performed. In southern China, the ratio of temperature (precipitation)changes caused by AG and LU is greater than (closer to) the ratio of the number of grid cells with changed vegetation cover due to AG and LU variations.     

Multiyear simulation of the African climate using a regional climate model (RegCM3) with the high resolution ERA-interim reanalysis

This study examines the ability of the latest version of the International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) regional climate model (RegCM3) to reproduce seasonal mean climatologies, annual cycle and interannual variability over the entire African continent and different climate subregions. The new European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) ERA-interim reanalysis is used to provide initial and lateral boundary conditions for the RegCM3 simulation. Seasonal mean values of zonal wind profile, temperature, precipitation and associated low level circulations are shown to be realistically simulated, although the regional model still shows some deficiencies. The West Africa monsoon flow is somewhat overestimated and the Africa Easterly Jet (AEJ) core intensity is underestimated. Despite these biases, there is a marked improvement in these simulated model variables compared to previous applications of this model over Africa. The mean annual cycle of precipitation, including single and multiple rainy seasons, is well captured over most African subregions, in some cases even improving the quality of the ERA-interim reanalysis. Similarly, the observed precipitation interannual variability is well reproduced by the regional model over most regions, mostly following, and sometimes improving, the quality of the ERA-interim reanalysis. It is assessed that the performance of this model over the entire African domain is of sufficient quality for application to the study of climate change and climate variability over the African continent.     

Do high-velocity clouds form by thermal instability?

We examine the proposal that the H  i 'high-velocity' clouds (HVCs) surrounding the Milky Way and other disc galaxies form by condensation of the hot galactic corona via thermal instability. Under the assumption that the galactic corona is well represented by a non-rotating, stratified atmosphere, we find that for this formation mechanism to work the corona must have an almost perfectly flat entropy profile. In all other cases, the growth of thermal perturbations is suppressed by a combination of buoyancy and thermal conduction. Even if the entropy profile were nearly flat, cold clouds with sizes smaller than  10 kpc  could form in the corona of the Milky Way only at radii larger than  100 kpc  , in contradiction with the determined distances of the largest HVC complexes. Clouds with sizes of a few kpc can form in the inner halo only in low-mass systems. We conclude that unless even slow rotation qualitatively changes the dynamics of a corona, thermal instability is unlikely to be a viable mechanism for formation of cold clouds around disc galaxies.     

Assessment of a monumental masonry bell-tower after 2016 Central Italy seismic sequence by long-term SHM

The response of the San Pietro monumental bell-tower located in Perugia, Italy, to the 2016 Central Italy seismic sequence is investigated, taking advantage of the availability of field data recorded by a vibration-based SHM system installed in December 2014 to detect earthquake-induced damages. The tower is located about 85 km in the NW direction from the epicenter of the first major shock of the sequence, the Accumoli Mw6.0 earthquake of August 24th, resulting in a small local PGA of about 30 cm/s², whereby near-field PGA was measured as 915.97 cm/s² (E–W component) and 445.59 cm/s² (N–S component). Similar PGA values also characterized the two other major shocks of the sequence (Ussita Mw5.9 and Norcia Mw6.5 earthquakes of October 26th and 30th, respectively). Despite the relatively low intensity of such earthquakes in Perugia, the analysis of long-term monitoring data clearly highlights that small permanent changes in the structural behavior of the bell-tower have occurred after the earthquakes, with decreases in all identified natural frequencies. Such natural frequency decays are fully consistent with what predicted by non-linear finite element simulations and, in particular, with the development of microcracks at the base of the columns of the belfry. Microcracks in these regions, and in the rest of tower, are however hardly distinguishable from pre-existing ones and from the physiological cracking of a masonry structure, what validates the effectiveness of the SHM system in detecting earthquake-induced damage at a stage where this is not yet detectable by visual inspections.