Observed and projected climate change in the European region during the twentieth and twenty-first centuries according to Feddema

Climate change in the European region during the twentieth and twenty-first centuries is analyzed according to Feddema’s method. Precipitation and air temperature data from the twentieth century are taken from the Climatic Research Unit, while data for the twenty-first century are taken from the ENSEMBLES climate change project. The latter were bias-corrected to ensure homogeneity across the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. Climate classes based on monthly and annual values of potential evapotranspiration, precipitation and their ratio, are defined for 30-year averages, from which trend and spatial agreement analysis are calculated. There are separate classes for annual values and for intra-annual variation. The results indicate that the change of annual climate characteristics will be much more intense in the twenty-first than it was in the twentieth century. The dominant process in the projections is warming, mostly via cold to cool (about 45% of grid points) in north Europe and cool to warm (about 8% of grid points) transformations. The second most important process is the drying of moderately moist classes affecting about 10% of the grid points in south Europe. Changes in intra-annual variability classes are more common than changes in the annual ones during the twentieth century. The chance of increase in intra-annual temperature variation from high to extreme is about 5% during the course of the twentieth century, and about 10% in the following century.     

Biogeographical drivers of ragweed pollen concentrations in Europe

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - The drivers of spatial variation in ragweed pollen concentrations, contributing to severe allergic rhinitis and asthma, are poorly quantified. We analysed the...     

Climate change in Hungary during the twentieth century according to Feddema

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Climate change in Hungary during the twentieth century is analyzed using Feddema’s original scheme suitable for global scale applications (F-GS) and...     

Cosmological parameters and redshift periodicity

This work is the continuation of the search for such a cosmological model using which the observed redshift distribution of galaxies in the sample of Broadhurstet al. (1990) turns out to be maximally periodic in the calculated spatial distance. In a previous work, Paálet al. (1992) have demonstrated that among theflat models with non-negative cosmological constant (e.e., vacuum density) the one with a vacuum: dust ratio 2:1 provides the optimum. Now we extend that study to the case of arbitrary space curvature and find equally good periodicity in a surprisingly wide range of models. By use of the dimensionless parameters ₀= ₀/ _crit and ₀=/3H ₀ ² acceptable periodicity is obtained forall points of the parameter plane within the strip between the parallel lines 0.83₀–0.30< ₀(₀)<0.83₀+0.85(₀<1.8), whilst the best periodicities appear along the line ₀=0.83₀+0.39 fitting to the previous optimum at ₀=1/3, ₀=2/3. Any nonpositive value of ₀ gives bad periodicity unless the space curvature is strongly negative and ₀<0.4. Fairly good periodicity is observed only in the range of the deceleration parameter –1.2q ₀<0.2, corresponding to a small or even negative total gravitational attraction and an expansion time-scale longer than usually expected.     

Control of chaos in the vicinity of the Earth‐Moon L5 Lagrangian point to keep a spacecraft in orbit

The concept of Space Manifold Dynamics is a new method of space research. We have applied it along with the basic idea of the method of Ott, Grebogi, and York (OGY method) to stabilize the motion of a spacecraft around the triangular Lagrange point L₅ of the Earth‐Moon system. We have determined the escape rate of the trajectories in the general three‐ and four‐body problem and estimated the average lifetime of the particles. Integrating the two models we mapped in detail the phase space around the L₅ point of the Earth‐Moon system. Using the phase space portrait our next goal was to apply a modified OGY method to keep a spacecraft close to the vicinity of L₅. We modified the equation of motions with the addition of a time dependent force to the motion of the spacecraft. In our orbit‐keeping procedure there are three free parameters: (i) the magnitude of the thrust, (ii) the start time, and (iii) the length of the control. Based on our numerical experiments we were able to determine possible values for these parameters and successfully apply a control phase to a spacecraft to keep it on orbit around L₅. (© 2015 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Transient chaos in the Sitnikov problem

In this paper, we show the important role of chaotic transients in Celestial Mechanics through the Sitnikov problem. We compare the two kinds of chaos, permanent and transient, and provide the chaotic saddle of the Sitnikov problem giving also some important quantitative properties of this fractal set. Additionally, we present a link between the stickiness effect of tori and chaotic scattering.     

The Sinai subplate and tectonic evolution of the northern Red Sea region

Although the precise boundaries and kinematics of the Sinai subplate are still doubtful, it has a significant role in the tectonic evolution of the northern Red Sea region. On the basis of earthquake distribution, the Sinai region can be considered as a subplate partially separated from the African plate by the Suez rift. The relative motion between Africa, Sinai and Arabia is the main source generating the present-day earthquake activity in the Gulf of Suez and the Gulf of Aqaba regions.According to geological observations, the southern segment of the Dead Sea fault system can be characterized by a left-lateral displacement of about 107km since the Middle Miocene, in contrast to the northern segment where only 25 to 35km offset can be inferred. We think that along the southern segment the total displacement was 72km until the late Miocene (10Ma). The earthquake activity is strongly reduced along the northern segment of the Dead Sea fault segment. Therefore, we suggest that the northern part (Yammouneh fault) evolves through initial cracking of the crust due to build-up of stress since the Pliocene time (5Ma) and propagates northward into Lebanon and Syria. This last 5 million years is the period when the southern and northern segments became linked and formed a single fault system with a new displacement of 35km.According to the proposed model the predicted opening pole of the Red Sea is near 34.0oN, 22.0oE with an angle of total rotation of 3.4o since the early miocene, providing a 0.82cm/a opening rate in the northern Red Sea. We suggest that the Dead Sea strike-slip fault was active since Middle Miocene time (15Ma) with a slip rate of 0.72cm/a to provide a total displacement of about 107km. This strike slip motion occured about an Euler pole near 33.0oN, 21.0oE with a rotation angle of about 3.0o. It can be inferred from the proximity of the pole and angle of rotations for the Red Sea and Dead Sea fault that more than 85% of the motion has been accommodated on the Gulf of Aqaba and the Dead Sea fault and less than 15% in the Gulf of Suez.This model predicts a normal extensional motion in the Gulf of Suez with a minor left-lateral strike-slip component. We expect the pole of this motion to be at 31.0oN, 29.0oE, offshore of Alamein city about 320 km west of the Nile Delta. The rate of motion through the last 15Ma (Middle Miocene) is about 0.1 cm/a and the angle of rotation is 0.9o. During this period the total opening of the Suez rift is 15 km while the rest of the motion (45 km) occured mainly through the first phase of the development before the Middle Miocene.