基于高通量测序的表层水体纤毛虫多样性评估方法比较与优化

基于扩增子的高通量测序技术广泛应用于微型生物多样性的研究, 不同的测序手段和数据分析流程, 影响着微型生物多样性与群落结构的分析结果。本研究以易于形态鉴定的砂壳纤毛虫作为研究对象, 比较DNA测序、RNA测序和形态学方法检获的多样性和物种组成等, 探究序列分析流程中关键步骤: 嵌合体处理、可操作分类单元分析方法选择、合并相似分类单元以及去除稀有类群等对多样性结果的影响。研究结果显示无论基于DNA还是RNA的分子手段与形态学方法检获的主要物种基本一致, 与DNA测序相比, RNA测序检获的物种数少, 但差异不显著。基于97%以上相似度聚类和单核苷酸变异所得群落结构相似, 无显著差异; 且所有分析方法都能在一定程度上反映出自然界中不同类群的相对丰度。相较于单核苷酸变异和其他相似度阈值, 99%相似度下聚类所得多样性更为接近形态学结果。去除嵌合体和稀有类群(去除阈值: DNA测序0.05%; RNA测序0.07%), 可明显改善分子多样性虚高的问题。本研究为纤毛虫等真核微生物的分子多样性研究提供了科学的数据分析流程, 对未来真核微生物多样性研究具有指导意义。     

基于小波包变换特征向量提取的隐蔽水声通信性能评价方法研究

针对水声通信系统的隐蔽性缺乏客观、有效的评价手段,提出一种基于小波包变换提取信号特征向量并比较特征向量相似度的信号隐蔽性评价算法。为了区别截获信号和环境噪声,考虑从能量分布特征的角度,提取截获信号的特征参数。所提算法利用小波包变换具有更高的时频分辨率、自适应选择频带等特点,获取信号的小波包能量占比、小波包能量熵、小波包尺度熵,采用上述 3 个特征参数组成特征向量和利用余弦相似度算法判别信号隐蔽性。仿真实验和海试结果表明,所提方法得到的信号隐蔽性能基本符合实际信号隐蔽性能随信噪比变化规律,为隐蔽水声通信系统评估设计和水声对抗性能评级提供有效参考。     

预测有效波高的深度学习模型研究

研究基于RNN、LSTM、GRU深度学习模型,针对NOAA浮标数据集中的44013、44014、44017浮标的数据,通过斯皮尔曼相关性分析提高模型预测效果。实验结果表明,在进行相关性分析后,S-RNN、S-LSTM、 S-GRU的预测效果均比原始RNN、LSTM、GRU模型预测效果好。此外,提出一种基于LSTM的LSTM-Attention 波高预测模型,并进行相关实验,量化LSTM-Attention模型的预测效果,实验结果表明LSTM-Attention模型有更好的预测效果。为评估模型的泛化能力,研究还提出了一种采用邻近浮标数据进行学习,预测浮标缺失数据的方 法。实验结果表明,该方法的预测精度可以达到97.93%。本研究为海浪预测提供了新的方法和思路,也为未来深 度学习模型在海浪预测中的应用提供了参考。     

Experimental research on the effect of slope morphology on bank collapse in mountain reservoir

Farmers along the Amazon River each year face multiple natural hazards that threaten crop production and limit the potential for agricultural development of the expansive floodplain and active channel. In this paper we report the findings of a study of natural hazard-related risk associated with rice production on silt bars in the active channel of the Amazon River near Iquitos, Peru. Data were gathered in four rice producing communities in 2014 using household surveys (n = 83 households), focus group discussions, surveying of land elevations along the Amazon River, and interpretation of remote sensing imagery. The probability, extent, and severity of rice crop shortfalls were estimated for recent production years and the economic losses to farming households were also assessed. Our findings point to a very high risk of crop shortfalls due to natural hazards, suggesting that a good year brings rice farmers bounty and a bad year, near penury. River stage reversals (repiquetes) and edaphic conditions were found to be more problematic than the often cited hazard of high and/or early floods. Also surprisingly, farmers’ perceptions of hazards and risk diverged markedly from actual shortfalls experienced during the production years studied. Our results provide the first quantitative estimates of risk due to the multiple natural hazards along the Amazon River and point to the need to assist lowland farmers with risk mitigation so as to unlock the considerable potential of Amazon floodlands for agricultural production.     

基于离散元方法的落石碰撞破碎研究

落石是山区公路边坡常见的地质灾害。落石撞击破碎是落石灾害中常见的现象,落石破碎致使运动轨迹改变往往会增大落石的危害性,但其通常未被考虑到落石的防护设计中。因此,落石破碎机理的研究对落石防护措施设计有重要的指导意义。本文运用离散元方法（离散元开源软件Esys-Particle）模拟落石铅直撞击地面的过程。在模型中,落石由大量的颗粒组成,并且相邻的颗粒由可断裂的黏结材料黏接;地面由一层固定的颗粒组成,从而模拟地面的摩擦、弹性变形性质。模型模拟出落石反弹、破碎和粉碎等过程,分析黏结材料的杨氏模量、颗粒间凝聚力和内摩擦角对落石撞击地面过程的影响,得出落石撞击过程中破坏率和动能的变化过程。研究发现：当杨氏模量和凝聚力的比值较小时,落石将会发生反弹;当杨氏模量和凝聚力的比值增大到一定程度时,落石将会破碎成不同大小的块体;当杨氏模量和凝聚力的比值超过一定限度时,落石将会破碎成非常细小的块体;内摩擦角的变化对撞击过程影响非常小。     

青岛市短时强降水的气候特征和天气系统分型

利用1981—2012年4—10月青岛市7个观测站逐时降水量资料和同期NCEP再分析资料,统计分析青岛市短时强降水的时空分布特征,建立青岛市短时强降水天气概念模型。结果表明：青岛市年短时强降水日数无明显变化趋势;4—10月均有短时强降水出现,7—8月是多发月份;短时强降水的日变化有2个多发时段,主峰在下午到傍晚时段,次峰在凌晨时段;即墨、平度、黄岛为青岛市短时强降水的多发区域,其中黄岛为连续性短时强降水出现最多的区域;青岛市产生短时强降水的天气系统可分为六种类型,西风槽型、横槽型、冷涡型、热带低值系统型、西北气流型、切变线型,其中西风槽型出现次数最多。     

积极推动“数字海南”建设

海南省具有得天独厚的发展优势,“数字地球”是实现整体可持续发展的重要保障,将有力推进全省信息化的进程,促进经济发展。     

Preliminary study on assessment of nutrient transport in the Taihu Basin based on SWAT modeling

With the Taihu Basin as a study area, using the spatially distributed and mechanism-based SWAT model, preliminary simulations of nutrient transport in the Taihu Basin during the period of 1995:_2002 has been carried out. The topography, soil, meteorology and land use with industrial point pollution discharge, the loss of agricultural fertilizers, urban sewerage, and livestock drainages were all considered in the boundary conditions of the simulations. The model was calibrated and validated against water quality monitoring data from 2001 to 2002. The results show that the annual total productions of nitrogen (TN) and phosphorus (TP) into Lake Taihu are 40000t and 2000t respectively. Nutrient from the Huxi Region is a major resource for Lake Taihu. The non-point source (surface source) pollution is the main form of catchment sources of nutrients into Lake Taihu, occupied TN 53% and TP 56% respectively. TN and TP nutrients from industrial point pollution discharge are 30% and 16%, and sewerage in both forms of point source and non-point source are TN 31% and TP 47%. Both the loss of agricultural fertilizers and livestock drainages from the catchment should be paid more attention as an important nutrient source. The results also show that SWAT is an effective model for the simulation of temporally and spatially nutrient changes and for the assessment of the trends in a catchment scale.     

塔里木河流域适应气候变化和人类活动的应对措施

自2001年开始实施塔里木河流域近期综合治理工程,提出了以强化流域水资源统一管理和调度为核心,以源流区节水改造和干流河道治理为重点进行综合治理,积极稳妥地进行经济结构调整,实施退耕封育保护,有效保护好现有天然林草植被.通过向塔里木河下游生态输水,干涸近30a的台特玛湖于2001年11月16日开始有水,使塔里木河下游绿色走廊得到初步复苏等,流域生态环境得到极大的恢复.然而,自2007年以来,塔里木河向下游输水已大为减少,仅能输水到中游,特别是2009年水文干旱,塔里木河干流断流达1 100km多,使下游绿色走廊再度陷入生态危机.为此,需要重新审视塔里木河流域的综合治理,从加强源流治理开始,来巩固干流治理成果.认真总结10a来治理经验与教训,针对人类活动和气候变化对源流与干流造成的影响程度,积极采取应对措施.