Conceptually-based shot noise modeling of streamflows at short time interval

A conceptual-stochastic approach to short time runoff data modelling is proposed, according to the aim of reproducing the hydrological aspects of the streamflow process and of preserving as much as possible the dynamics of the process itself. This latter task implies preservation of streamflow characteristics at higher scales of aggregation and, within a conceptual framework, involves compatibility with models proposed for the runoff process at those scales. At a daily time scale the watershed response to the effective rainfall is considered as deriving from the response of three linear reservoirs, respectively representing contributions to streamflows of large deep aquifers, with over-year response lag, of aquifers which run dry by the end of the dry season and of subsurface runoff. The surface runoff component is regarded as an uncorrelated point process. Considering the occurrences of effective rainfall events as generated by an independent Poisson process, the output of the linear system represents a conceptually-based multiple shot noise process. Model identification and parameter estimation are supported by information related to the aggregated runoff process, in agreement to the conceptual framework proposed, and this allows parameter parsimony, efficient estimation and effectiveness of the streamflow reproduction. Good performances emerged from the model application and testing made with reference to some daily runoff series from Italian basins.     

Ar / Ar dating of high-pressure rocks from the Ligurian Alps: Evidence for a continuous subduction–exhumation cycle

We present ³⁹Ar–⁴⁰Ar dating of phengite, muscovite and paragonite from a set of mafic and metasedimentary rocks sampled from the high-pressure (HP) metaophiolites of the Voltri Group (Western Alps) and from clasts in the basal layer conglomerates from the Tertiary molasse which overlie the high-pressure basement. The white mica-bearing rocks display peak eclogitic and blueschist-facies parageneses, locally showing complex greenschist-facies replacement textures. The internal discordance of age spectra is proportional to the chemical complexity of the micas. High-Si phengites from eclogite clasts record a ³⁹Ar–⁴⁰Ar age of ca. 49 Ma for the eclogite stage and ca. 43 Ma for the blueschist retrogression; phengites from a blueschist basement sample yield an age of ca. 40 Ma; low-Si muscovite from a metasediment dates the formation of the greenschist paragenesis at ca. 33 Ma. Our data indicate that the analyzed samples reached high-pressure conditions at different times over a time-span of c.a. 10 Ma. Subduction was continuing during exhumation and blueschist retrograde re-equilibration of higher-pressure, eclogite-facies rocks. This process kept the isotherms depressed, allowing the older HP-rocks to escape thermal re-equilibration. Our results, added to literature data, fit a tectonic model of a subduction–exhumation cycle, with different tectonic slices subducted at different times from Early Eocene until the Eocene–Oligocene boundary.     

Weathering characterization for landslides modeling in granitoid rock masses of the Capo Vaticano promontory (Calabria,Italy)

This work focuses on developing multidisciplinary researches concerning weathering profiles related to landscape evolution of the Capo Vaticano promontory on the Calabria Tyrrhenian side (southern Italy). In this area, the tectonic uplift, occurred at least since Pleistocene, together with the Mediterranean climatic conditions, is the main cause of deep weathering and denudation processes. The latter occurred on the outcropping rocks of the crystalline-metamorphic basement, made up of weathered granitoids, in turn belonging to the Monte Poro granitoid complex (intermediate to felsic plutonic rocks covered by Cenozoic sedimentary successions). Field observations coupled to borehole explorations, geophysical surveys, and minero-petrographical analyses allowed the characterization of the granitoid outcrops typical of the studied area in terms of kind and degree of slope instability. This characterization was based on suitable correlations verified between several factors as weathering degree, elastic properties of rocks, and discontinuity features. Weathering profiles are mainly composed by rock masses varying from completely weathered rock with corestones of highly weathered rock (classes IV–V) to slightly weathered rocks (class II). The weathered rocks are involved in several landslide typologies such as debris flow (frequency 48.5%), translational slide (frequency 33.3%), and minor rock fall and rotational slide (frequency 9%). The achieved data allowed the establishment of a general correlation between weathering degree and type of slope instability. Debris flow-type instabilities are predominant on the steeper slopes, involving very poor rock masses ascribed to the shallowest portions of the weathering class IV. Translational slides are less widespread than the previous ones and often involve a mixture of soil and highly weathered rocks. Rotational slides are more frequently close to the top of the slopes, where the thicknesses of more weathered rocks increase, and involve mainly rock masses belonging to the weathering classes IV and V. Rock falls mostly occur on the vertical escarpments of the road cuts and are controlled by the characteristics of the main discontinuities. The assessment of rock mass rating and slope mass rating, based on the application of the discontinuity data, allowed respectively an evaluation of the quality of rock masses and of the susceptibility of rock slopes to failure. The comparison between the last one and the real stability conditions along the cut slopes shows a good correspondence. Finally, the geological strength index system was also applied for the estimation of rock mass properties. The achieved results give a worthy support for a better understanding of the relationship between the distribution of landslides and the geological features related to different weathering degrees. Therefore, they can provide a reliable tool to evaluate the potential stability conditions of the rock slopes in the studied area and a general reference framework for the study of weathering processes in other regions with similar geological features.     

Groundwater characteristics within loessic deposits: the coastal springs of Los Acantilados,Mar del Plata,Argentina

The urban growth of the southern neighborhoods of Mar del Plata City provoked significant changes in the groundwater balance of the loessic sequences. These regional loessic levels with a significant portion of volcanic ash layers were reported subject to fluoride and nitrate concentrations. Residential houses pump from sands located 70 m depth and withdraw the sewages to depths less than 5 m. These effects cause significant local and seasonal (summer) increments of the water table outcropping via springs at certain unconformities of the coastal cliffs. A mathematical model was applied to analyze the water level lowering at the productive levels, while there is a decrease in the quality of the upper levels subject to waste discharges. Much of this groundwater flow is concentrated in unconformities between different types of sediments. Human activities have affected the aquifer dynamics increasing the groundwater pumping rates and the return velocity of the sewages. This should be considered in the management strategies of coastal hydric resources.     

Implementation of the European Water Framework Directive: Natural variability associated with the CARLIT method on the rocky shores of the Ligurian Sea (Italy)

The Water Framework Directive (WFD) 2000/60/EC, adopted by the European Community in 2000 with the goal of maintaining and improving the aquatic environments, requires that member states achieve and maintain a good ecological status of all water bodies by 2015. In the marine context, the ecological status has to be quantified applying indexes based on appropriate key biological elements, which allow the categorization of water bodies into five Ecological Status (ES) classes. The CARLIT index is a cartographic monitoring tool enabling the Ecological Quality Ratio (EQR) to be calculated using macroalgae in coastal hard bottoms as a key biological element; at present it is being applied in Spain, France and Italy. To detect actual changes of water quality and, consequently, rely on the application of indexes for the assessment of the ecological status in the marine environment, it is necessary to evaluate their sensitivity to natural variability at different temporal and spatial scales. In this study we present a first quantification of natural (spatial and temporal) variability of EQR‐CARLIT quality assessment in 2006 and 2007 along the Ligurian coast (North‐Western Mediterranean, Italy). The EQR‐CARLIT values recorded along the Ligurian coastline show that natural variability of EQR‐CARLIT is low and that it does not affect the attribution of a given stretch of coast to a particular ES class, in agreement with the major human pressures acting in the area (urbanization, river load, sea‐farming). A small‐scale variability was detected, strengthening the use of cartography of the whole rocky shore, whenever possible, or, alternatively, the assessment of the ecological status for long stretches of coast, to encompass the small‐scale variability due to local factors.     

Comparative Study of the Three-Dimensional Thermodynamical Structure of the Inner Corona of Solar Minimum Carrington Rotations 1915 and 2081

Using differential emission measure tomography (DEMT) based on time series of EUV images, we carry out a quantitative comparative analysis of the three-dimensional (3D) structure of the electron density and temperature of the inner corona (\(r<1.25\,\mathrm{R}_{\odot}\)) between two specific rotations selected from the last two solar minima, namely Carrington Rotations (CR)1915 and CR-2081. The analysis places error bars on the results because of the systematic uncertainty of the sources. While the results for CR-2081 are characterized by a remarkable north–south symmetry, the southern hemisphere for CR-1915 exhibits higher densities and temperatures than the northern hemisphere. The core region of the streamer belt in both rotations is found to be populated by structures whose temperature decreases with height (called “down loops” in our previous articles). They are characterized by plasma \(\beta\gtrsim1\), and may be the result of the efficient dissipation of Alfvén waves at low coronal heights. The comparative analysis reveals that the low latitudes of the equatorial streamer belt of CR-1915 exhibit higher densities than for CR-2081. This cannot be explained by the systematic uncertainties. In addition, the southern hemisphere of the streamer belt of CR-1915 is characterized by higher temperatures and density scale heights than for CR-2081. On the other hand, the coronal hole region of CR-1915 shows lower temperatures than for CR-2081. The reported differences are in the range \({\approx}\,10\,\mbox{--}\,25\%\), depending on the specific physical quantity and region that is compared, as fully detailed in the analysis. For other regions and/or physical quantities, the uncertainties do not allow assessing the thermodynamical differences between the two rotations. Future investigation will involve a DEMT analysis of other Carrington rotations selected from both epochs, and also a comparison of their tomographic reconstructions with magnetohydrodynamical simulations of the inner corona.     

High resolution time series of lead and zinc in sediments of Lake Constance

Sediments in Lake Constance have been dated by radiometric methods and lamination counting. Investigations into the concentrations of lead and zinc in the sediments were carried out to get detailed information about environmental history. Maximum concentrations were found at the beginning of the 1960's. The lead maximum contamination occurred 3 years before the zinc maximum and has an unidentified source. The use of coal, leaded gasoline or the remobilization within the sediment could be excluded to result in the lead maximum. The fluctuations in zinc contamination could be explained with increasing and decreasing pollution (industry, coal burning, building of sewage plants). The greatest fluctuations of both metals occur during periods of great change in the economic history of Germany.