Impact of climate change on meteorological and hydrological droughts for Upper Coruh Basin,Turkey

Natural Hazards - Environmental changes have led to non-stationary flood risks in coastal cities. How to quantitatively characterize the future change trend and effectively adapt is a critical...     

Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System for drought forecasting

Drought causes huge losses in agriculture and has many negative influences on natural ecosystems. In this study, the applicability of Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) for drought forecasting and quantitative value of drought indices, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), is investigated. For this aim, 10 rainfall gauging stations located in Central Anatolia, Turkey are selected as study area. Monthly mean rainfall and SPI values are used for constructing the ANFIS forecasting models. For all stations, data sets include a total of 516 data records measured between in 1964 and 2006 years and data sets are divided into two subsets, training and testing. Different ANFIS forecasting models for SPI at time scales 1–12 months were trained and tested. The results of ANFIS forecasting models and observed values are compared and performances of models were evaluated. Moreover, the best fit models have been also trained and tested by Feed Forward Neural Networks (FFNN). The results demonstrate that ANFIS can be successfully applied and provide high accuracy and reliability for drought forecasting.     

Modeling and Validating Long‐Term Dynamics of Diel Dissolved Oxygen with Particular Reference to pH in a Temperate Shallow Lake (Turkey)

Long‐term monitoring of changes in dissolved oxygen (DO) and pH is of great importance to quantifying aquatic ecosystem metabolism, particularly for lakes under the changing global environment. During 173 days, diel DO cycles were measured in situ along with the main driving variables of pH, wind speed (WS), and net solar radiation (Rn) in a temperate shallow lake. Best‐fit multiple non‐linear regression (MNLR) models of diel DO time series were built and validated on a monthly basis, with R² values ranging from 42.4% in September to 95.4% in November for validation. The strong relationship between diel DO and pH (r = 0.6) appeared to be related to the patterns of ecosystem productivity and respiration, and sensitivity of decomposing bacteria to changes in pH. pH‐driven lake metabolism appears to have significant implications for diel and seasonal lake metabolism in a changing global environment.     

Road hierarchy with integration of attributes using fuzzy-AHP

Road objects in a network data model are categorised into a hierarchical structure in accordance with their functions and capacities. In this study; five road attributes derived from semantic, geometric and topological properties of network data set (i.e. road class, road length and centralities of degree, closeness and betweenness) are utilised for the creation of road network hierarchy. The relationships with each attributes except road class and their effects on the determination of road importance are analysed by using a distribution graph and the equation of Pearson correlation coefficient. For creating road network hierarchy, integration process is achieved through the application of fuzzy analytic hierarchy process assuming attributes as the fuzzy criteria. The integration process is followed by the calculation of new priority attribute that indicates the importance of road objects. At the end of the process, road class, which is the most important attribute, is also used for the validation of proposed methodology. The results show that the new priority value of a road is superior to its each attribute value in hierarchical organisation.     

Solutions for 4D cadastre – with a case study on utility networks

The increasing complexity and flexibility of modern land use requires that cadastres need to manage information on the third and temporal (fourth) dimension. This article considers the registration of legal space of utility networks in cadastre in this 3D + time (=4D) context. A requirement analysis in three countries that have methods to register utility networks complying with their legal, organizational and technical structure (Turkey, the Netherlands and Queensland, Australia) is the basis for three alternatives for 4D cadastre to register utility networks. The three alternatives are analysed with respect to legal, organizational and technical cadastral requirements. This article presents a case study and a prototype from the Netherlands. In this country by law utilities are considered to be real estate objects with obligatory registration of ownership and geometry. This study shows that the 3D space and separate temporal attributes approach (state-based model) is a very promising solution to maintain temporal changes of utility networks and that this approach is to be preferred above the current practice, where the 3D and temporal aspects are not considered when registering a network.     

Experimental and Statistical Evaluation of Cutting Methods in Relation to Specific Energy and Rock Properties

In a processing plant, natural stone can be cut by methods such as circular sawing (CS), frame sawing (FS), water jet cutting (WJC) and abrasive water jet cutting (AWJC). The efficiency of cutting systems can be compared using various parameters. In this study, the specific energy values were determined and compared to evaluate the efficiency of rock-cutting methods. Rock-cutting experiments were performed on 12 different types of rock samples using a circular sawing machine and an AWJC machine. The experimental results showed that the specific energy values in AWJC were generally higher than in CS. In addition, the relationships between specific energy values and rock properties were explained in this study. The Shore hardness and abrasion resistance were found to be strongly related to the specific energy values, and according to these parameters prediction charts of specific energy values were created.     

Estimating compaction parameters of fine- and coarse-grained soils by means of artificial neural networks

This paper presents artificial neural network (ANN) prediction models for estimating the compaction parameters of both coarse- and fine-grained soils. A total number of 200 soil mixtures were prepared and compacted at standard Proctor energy. The compaction parameters were predicted by means of ANN models using different input data sets. The ANN prediction models were developed to find out which of the index properties correlate well with compaction parameters. In this respect, the transition fine content ratio (TFR) was defined as a new input parameter in addition to traditional soil index parameters (i.e. liquid limit, plastic limit, passing No. 4 sieve and passing No. 200 sieve). Highly nonlinear nature of the compaction data dictated development of two separate ANN models for maximum dry unit weight (γ_dmax) and optimum water content (ω_opt). It was found that generalization capability and prediction accuracy of ANN models could be further enhanced by sub-clustered data division techniques.     

Fluid processes in the Tesbihdere base-metal-Au deposit: Implications for epithermal mineralization in the Biga Peninsula,NW Turkey

Tesbihdere is one of a number of spatially close epithermal Cu-Pb-Zn-Ag-Au deposits hosted by andesites and rhyolites, typical of deposits in the Biga peninsula. Microthermometry of fluid inclusions shows a wide range of temperatures, ～360–170°C, and salinities, ～10-0.5 wt.% NaCl, in the different deposits studied. Dilution of a moderately saline magmatic? fluid with meteoric water occurred at constant temperature indicating, the temperature of both fluids was controlled by the geological environment. Boiling was not a major factor, but did occur in very minor amounts. The large range of temperatures within individual samples can only reasonably be explained by variations from near lithostatic to hydrostatic pressure during vein and fracture opening. That this pressure decrease did not produce extensive boiling suggests that vein opening was gradual rather than aggressive, allowing the pressure and temperature decrease to follow a path close to the L-V boiling curve. P-T reconstruction places emplacement of these ore veins at between 300–500 m beneath the surface. Similarities of LA-ICPMS of fluid inclusions from Tesbihdere, Azitepe and Basmakci, supports the conclusion that they were part of the same contemporaneous mineralizing system. The fluids are dominated by Na, with the concentrations of K>Ca>Mg combined equivalent to the concentration of Na. The range of K/Na ratios is not consistent with the fluid inclusion temperatures as the calculated temperatures are significantly higher indicating the fluids were not close to equilibrium with the enclosing rocks. Elevated K concentrations are consistent with acid-sulphate waters in shallow epithermal systems. Ore metals Cu, Zn and Pb are present in significant concentrations ～500, 300 and 200 ppm respectively and the low Fe/Mn ratios are indicative of a relatively oxidising fluid. The negative δ ³⁴S values of sulphides are consistent with boiling and oxidising redox conditions.     

Seismic behaviour of the North Anatolian Fault beneath the Sea of Marmara (NW Turkey): implications for earthquake recurrence times and future seismic hazard

Possible long-term seismic behaviour of the Northern strand of the North Anatolian Fault Zone, between western extreme of the 1999 İzmit rupture and the Aegean Sea, after 400 AD is studied by examining the historical seismicity, the submarine fault mapping and the paleoseismological studies of the recent scientific efforts. The long-term seismic behaviour is discussed through two possible seismicity models devised from M _S ≥ 7.0 historical earthquakes. The estimated return period of years of the fault segments for M1 and M2 seismic models along with their standard deviations are as follows: F4 segment 255 ± 60 and 258 ± 12; F5 segment 258 ± 60 and 258 ± 53; F6 segment 258 ± 60 and 258 ± 53; F7 segment 286 ± 103 and 286 ± 90; F8 segment 286 ± 90 and 286 ± 36. As the latest ruptures on the submarine segments have been reported to be during the 1754–1766 earthquake sequence, and the 1912 mainshock rupture has been evidenced to extend almost all over the western part of the Sea of Marmara, our results imply imminent seismic hazard and, considering the mean recurrence time, a large earthquake to strike the eastern part of the Sea of Marmara in the next two decades.