基于实地调研的中国西南地区不同震级人员死亡数量研究

地震是造成人员死亡最严重的自然灾害之一,震后对人员死亡等灾情的快速评估是地震应急响应和救援的关键。总结经验发现,在地震前进行预评估工作是提高震后灾情快速评估精度和时效性的有效手段。通过对62次发生在我国西南地区的历史震例分析后发现,当地震震级小于4.5级时,基本不会造成人员死亡情况。本研究利用我国云南和四川部分区县的实地调研数据,发现地震人员死亡数与震级存在指数函数关系,由此构建了针对各个区县的地震人员死亡人数指数函数估算模型,并计算了回归系数。基于该模型,获得了5.0～8.0级地震人员死亡数查找表(以0.5级为间隔),用于辅助震后快速评估工作。     

A mechanism for anomalous decline in radon precursory to an earthquake

Mechanisms for interpreting anomalous decreases in radon in ground water prior to earthquakes are examined with the help of a case study to show that radon potentially is a sensitive tracer of strain changes in the crust preceding an earthquake. The 2003 Chengkung earthquake of magnitude (M) 6.8 on December 10, 2003, was the strongest earthquake near the Chengkung area in eastern Taiwan since 1951. The Antung radon-monitoring station was located 20 km from the epicenter. Approximately 65 d prior to the 2003 Chengkung earthquake, precursory changes in radon concentration in ground water were observed. Specifically, radon decreased from a background level of 780 pCi/L to a minimum of 330 pCi/L. The Antung hot spring is situated in a fractured block of tuffaceous sandstone surrounded by ductile mudstone. Given these geological conditions, we hypothesized that the dilation of brittle rock mass occurred at a rate faster than the recharge of pore water and gas saturation developed in newly created cracks preceding the earthquake. Radon partitioning into the gas phase may explain the anomalous decrease of radon precursory to the 2003 Chengkung earthquake. To support the hypothesis, vapor-liquid, two-phase radon-partitioning experiments were conducted at formation temperature (60 degrees C) using formation brine from the Antung hot spring. Experimental data indicated that the decrease in radon required a gas saturation of 10% developed in rock cracks. The observed decline in radon can be correlated with the increase in gas saturation and then with the volumetric strain change for a given fracture porosity.     

A Statistical Investigation of the Earthquake Predictions Using LURR

In terms of the spatial scanning of LURR (Load-Unload Response Ratio), we have been predicting the seismic tendency within the next year for the mainland of China from 1995 to 2003. In order to make the quantitative retrospective assessment of LURR method, we compare the results with Poisson null hypothesis. The results show that the prediction by LURR method is much better than Poisson hypothesis.     

琼中地震台典型震例记录特征

通过对琼中地震台CDSN数字地震仪记录的具有典型震例的分析,提高了日常分析水平及大震速报质量.     

Investigation of the sliding behavior between steel and mortar for seismic applications in structures

The friction developed between a steel base plate and a mortar base contributes shear resistance to the building system during a seismic event. In order to investigate the possible sliding behavior between the base plate and the mortar, a shake table study is undertaken using a large rigid mass supported by steel contact elements which rest on mortar surfaces connected to the shake table. Horizontal input accelerations are considered at various magnitudes and frequencies. The results provide a constant friction coefficient during sliding with an average value of approximately 0.78. A theoretical formulation of the friction behavior is also undertaken. The theoretical equations show that the sliding behavior is dependent on the ratio of the friction force to the input force. The addition of vertical accelerations to the system further complicates the sliding behavior as a result of the varying normal force. This results in a variable friction resistance which is a function of the amplitude, phase, and frequency of the horizontal and vertical input motions. In general, this study showed a consistent and reliable sliding behavior between steel and mortar. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

邢台地区地壳各向异性特征初步研究

邢台地区处于华北平原地震带中南段, 是华北地区活跃的地震活动区。 本研究根据该地区的构造环境, 采用SAM方法研究地壳各向异性特征, 通过对邢台地区台站的数字波形进行分析, 初步得到邢台地区的剪切波分裂参数, 该地区的快剪切波平均偏振方向为73.9°±40.2°, 慢剪切波平均时间延迟为(2.74±1.54) ms/km。 结果表明, 快剪切波平均偏振方向与华北区域最大主压应力场方向基本一致, 但是受到局部断裂的制约, 部分台站下方的快剪切波的偏振方向显示为NWW方向。     

Bedload transport resistance in rough open‐channel flows

During bedload movement by saltation, streamwise momentum is transferred from the ?ow to the saltating grains. When the grains collide with other grains on the bed or in the ?ow, streamwise momentum is reduced, and there is a decrease in streamwise ?ow velocity and an increase in ?ow resistance, herein termed bedload transport resistance f_bt. Based on experiments in two ?umes with ?xed and mobile plane beds and previously published data, an equation is developed that may be used to predict f_bt for both capacity and non‐capacity ?ows. The variables in this equation are identi?ed by dimensional analysis and the coef?cients are determined by non‐linear regression. This equation applies to rough turbulent open‐channel ?ows, where the relative submergence is between 1 and 20 and the entire sediment load moves by saltation. An investigation of the relative magnitudes of f_bt and grain resistance f_c suggests that where dimensionless shear stress θ is less than 1 and saltation is the dominant mode of bedload transport, f_bt/f_c increases with θ but never exceeds 1. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Timing for high lake levels of Qinghai Lake in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau since the Last Interglaciation based on quartz OSL dating

Qinghai Lake is situated in the northeast of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP). Its size and proximity to the junction of three major climate systems make it sensitive to climate changes. Some investigations on shorelines of Qinghai Lake suggested highstands during MIS 3, but to what extent the lake level was higher than today is yet undetermined. Others proposed that the maximum highstands probably dated to MIS 5. It has also been shown that the lake level 120 m higher than today occurred at around 12 ka. Most of these previous ages were obtained using ¹⁴C dating or multiple-aliquot IRSL/OSL dating. For ¹⁴C dating, because of the dating limit (<40 ka) and the lack of suitable dating materials in this arid area, it is difficult to establish reliable chronological control. In the present study, seven samples collected from lacustrine deposits (five samples) and sand wedges (two samples) were dated using quartz optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) with the single aliquot regenerative-dose (SAR) protocol. OSL dating results showed that (1) the lake had experienced two high lake levels, one was in MIS 5 and another in early to middle MIS 3; (2) no evidence of high lake levels in MIS 4 has been found; (3) the alluvial gravels, whose surface is at an elevation of ～3246 m, were formed at least 28.8 ± 2.3 ka ago, and the widespread sand wedges within the alluvial gravels were formed during the period of 15.1–28.8 ka, which implied that the lake level had not reached an elevation of ～3240 m after 28.8 ± 2.3 ka.     

数字地震台网大震前地脉动信息变化特征研究

通过计算机对数字地震台网产出的大动态、高分辨率、高精度的地震波形数据进行的实时采集跟踪分析，发现了有些台站大震前地脉动波形的周期和幅度有明显异常变化，探索大震前地脉动变化的特征和规律，将为区域性地震预报研究开辟一条新的途径。     

Synthesis of todorokite by refluxing process and its primary characteristics

Todorokite is one of the common manganese ox-ides in manganese ore deposits, weathering product of manganese-bearing rocks, soils and sediments. It is also an important component in the abundant marine manganese nodules. Since todorokite was firstly found in Japanese Todoroki mine in 1934, its properties and origination have appeared to be very interesting to many researchers[1—3]. It has a stable structure similar to porous molecular sieves, constructed of triple MnO6 octahedral chains. Th…