The role of anthropogenic activities in karst spring discharge volatility

The traditional hydrological time series methods tend to focus on the mean of whichever variable is analysed but neglect its time‐varying variance (i.e. assuming the variance remains constant). The variances of hydrological time series vary with time under anthropogenic influence. There is evidence that extensive well drilling and groundwater pumping can intercept groundwater run‐off and consequently induce spring discharge volatility or variance varying with time (i.e. heteroskedasticity). To investigate the time‐varying variance or heteroskedasticity of spring discharge, this paper presents a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average with general autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (SARIMA‐GARCH) model, whose the SARIMA model is used to estimate the mean of hydrological time series, and the GARCH model estimates its time‐varying variance. The SARIMA‐GARCH model was then applied to the Xin'an Springs Basin, China, where extensive groundwater development has occurred since 1978 (e.g. the average annual groundwater pumping rates were less than 0.20 m³/s in the 1970s, reached 1.20 m³/s at the end of the 1980s, surpassed 2.0 m³/s in the 1990s and exceeded 3.0 m³/s by 2007). To identify whether human activities or natural stressors caused the heteroskedasticity of Xin'an Springs discharge, we segmented the spring discharge sequence into two periods: a predevelopment stage (i.e. 1956–1977) and a developed stage (i.e. 1978–2012), and set up the SARIMA‐GARCH model for the two stages, respectively. By comparing the models, we detected the role of human activities in spring discharge volatility. The results showed that human activities caused the heteroskedasticity of the Xin'an Spring discharge. The predicted Xin'an Springs discharge by the SARIMA‐GARCH model showed that the mean monthly spring discharge is predicted to continue to decline to 0.93 m³/s in 2013, 0.67 m³/s in 2014 and 0.73 m³/s in 2015. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

一种基于小波熵的时间尺度算法

结合小波分析和熵的基本理论,在分析国际原子时TAI的基础上,提出了基于小波熵的时间尺度算法．通过对原子钟信号进行多尺度分解,根据能量划分,综合所有尺度的小波系数得到小波熵,然后利用小波熵对原子钟进行加权．最后,通过某实验室的实测数据对算法进行了检验,结果表明:这种方法能够综合各原子钟信号在不同尺度上的频率波动特征,明显提高了时间尺度的稳定度．     

GAIM电离层同化方法进展

电离层是复杂的空间层结,其变化受太阳活动强度、地球磁场等因素影响。随着空间技术发展的需求,电离层天气变化成为目前空间天气预报最重要的内容之一。最近10年,人们利用卫星在电离层观测方面取得了重大进展,尤其引人注意的是:无线电掩星观测技术正走向应用的新阶段,加上已经建立的全球大量的地基GPS观测网,它们不仅为电离层动力学模式研究提供了丰富的电离层资料,而且为电离层预报提供了很好基础。因此,电离层天气预报成为当前重要的、前瞻性的研究方向,电离层资料同化是电离层预报最重要的研究内容之一。该文系统介绍这方面国际动态,重点是美国的USC/JPL和犹他州大学开展全球电离层同化模型研究、全球电离层同化研究的进展,以及在电离层天气预报中应用的初步成果。     

辽南早元古宙变质热液型金矿床成矿机理探讨

辽南早元古宙辽河群变质岩系中的金矿床为变质热液成因金矿床,矿床的形成与吕梁期变质变形作用关系密切。金矿化带的展布与金矿体的产出受韧性剪切带控制。剪切带内岩石具有明显的动态性组构特征,直接赋矿围岩为辽河群盖县组糜棱岩化千枚岩、变砂岩及云母石英糜棱岩等。韧性剪切带为含矿流体的运移提供通道。作者定义这类金矿床为变质热液型含金剪切带金矿床。     

GPS接收机的中频信号处理算法研究

该文对GPS接收机的中频信号处理算法进行了研究,内容主要涉及信号捕获、载波恢复和伪码跟踪3部分,详细分析了信号捕获过程中所采用的匹配滤波器法、快速傅里叶算法(FFT)、锁频环(FLL)、锁相环(PLL)以及延迟锁定环(DLL)的算法原理,并对环路滤波器作了相应的阐述,给出环路对应的递推公式．     

Synthesis, Characterization and Antibacterial Activity of New Ln（Ⅲ ） Complexes with an Unsymmetrical Schiff Base Ligand

1Introduction SomeSchiffbasecomplexesderivedfromaminoacidsareparticularlyactiveinbiologycatalysisandmaterial.Thestudyofthemisfocusofthestudyof coordinationchemistry.Recently,studiesofsuchmetalcomplexesofmono Schiffbaseshavebeenre ported(Fanetal.,2003a,b;L…     

用冷热休克诱导三倍体近江牡蛎

在近江牡蛎(Ostrea rivularis Gould)卵子授精后25分钟,分别用高温(35℃)和低温(10℃)持续处理20分钟,其胚胎发育初期的三倍体诱导率分别达到64％和69％。在这个高温点和低温点以外随着处理温度的升高或降低,三倍体诱导率均迅速减小。