A nonstationary extreme value distribution for analysing the cessation of karst spring discharge

The effects of climate change and population growth in recent decades are leading us to consider their combined and potentially extreme consequences, particularly regarding hydrological processes, which can be modeled using a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. Most of the GEV models were based on a stationary assumption for hydrological processes, in contrast to the nonstationary reality due to climate change and human activities. In this paper, we present the nonstationary generalized extreme value (NSGEV) distribution and use it to investigate the risk of Niangziguan Springs discharge decreasing to zero. Rather than assuming the location, scale, and shape parameters to be constant as one might do for a stationary GEV distribution analysis, the NSGEV approach can reflect the dynamic processes by defining the GEV parameters as functions of time. Because most of the GEV model is designed to evaluate maxima (e.g. flooding, represented by positive numbers), and spring discharge cessation is a ?minima’, we deduced an NSGEV model for minima by applying opposite numbers, i.e. negative instead of positive numbers. The results of the model application to Niangziguan Springs showed that the probability of zero discharge at Niangziguan Springs will be 1/80 in 2025, and 1/10 in 2030. After 2025, the rate of decrease in spring discharge will accelerate, and the probability that Niangziguan Springs will cease flowing will dramatically increase. The NSGEV model is a robust method for analysing karst spring discharge. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Geophysical constraints on mesozoic disruption of North China Craton by underplating‐triggered lower‐crust flow of the Archaean lithosphere

The mechanism of the disruption, both lithospheric thinning and oceanization of the commonly accepted long‐term‐stable Archaean craton, is still an open question. The available models, all imply a bottom to top process. With the construction of a 1660‐km‐long transect across the eastern North China Craton (NCC), we demonstrate that both the P‐wave velocity and density in the lowermost crust beneath the central section are significantly higher than in the corresponding parts of the south and north sections on the transect. These features are interpreted as geophysical signature of lower crustal underplating, which supplies sufficiently high gravitational potential energy to trigger lateral flow of the lower crust. This magma underplating‐triggered bilateral lower crust flow may facilitate the lithospheric thinning by means of asthenosphere upwelling and decompression melting, which infill the gap produced by the lower crust flow. The underplating‐triggered lower crustal flow can provide an alternative mechanism to explain the NCC lithosphere disruption, which highlights the crustal feedback to Archaean lithosphere disruption, from top to bottom.     

Thermal equation of state of natural tourmaline at high pressure and temperature

Synchrotron-based in situ angle-dispersive X-ray diffraction experiments were conducted on a natural uvite-dominated tourmaline sample by using an external-heating diamond anvil cell at simultaneously high pressures and temperatures up to 18 GPa and 723 K, respectively. The angle-dispersive X-ray diffraction data reveal no indication of a structural phase transition over the P–T range of the current experiment in this study. The pressure–volume–temperature data were fitted by the high-temperature Birch–Murnaghan equation of state. Isothermal bulk modulus of K ₀ = 96.6 (9) GPa, pressure derivative of the bulk modulus of \(K_{0}^{\prime } = 12.5 \;(4)\), thermal expansion coefficient of α ₀ = 4.39 (27) × 10^?5 K^?1 and temperature derivative of the bulk modulus (?K/?T) _P  = ?0.009 (6) GPa K^?1 were obtained. The axial thermoelastic properties were also obtained with K _a0 = 139 (2) GPa, \(K_{a0}^{\prime }\) = 11.5 (7) and α _a0 = 1.00 (11) × 10^?5 K^?1 for the a-axis, and K _c0 = 59 (1) GPa, \(K_{c0}^{\prime }\) = 11.4 (5) and α _c0 = 2.41 (24) × 10^?5 K^?1 for the c-axis. Both of axial compression and thermal expansion exhibit large anisotropic behavior. Thermoelastic parameters of tourmaline in this study were also compared with that of the other two ring silicates of beryl and cordierite.     

塔西台地寒武纪沉积环境演化与海陆耦合

碳酸盐岩台地作为陆地与深海间的过渡带,其沉积记录了海洋和邻近陆地的演化。结合已有的沉积学工作,对塔里木盆地西部台地寒武系碳酸盐岩进行全岩及酸不溶物地球化学研究。塔西台地寒武纪主要发育局限台地、局限-蒸发台地或蒸发台地相沉积。碳酸盐岩的地球化学特征主要受沉积环境和成岩作用影响,对研究区寒武系白云岩来说,其元素组成极易受沉积微相的控制,氧同位素组成则很可能已被成岩作用改造,仅原生、准同生白云岩的Sr/Ba、Fe/Mn和C同位素可反映沉积相演化对应的古盐度、离岸距离等沉积环境特征的变化,酸不溶物化学蚀变指数（CIA值）则指示邻近陆地的化学风化强度与气候特征。寒武纪时期,塔西台地在相对海平面较高时发育局限台地相沉积,以水体盐度较低、沉积环境离岸较远和生物活动相对较弱为特征,陆地化学风化强度适中,气候温暖湿润;在相对海平面较低时发育蒸发台地相沉积,具有水体盐度较高、沉积环境离岸较近和生物活动相对较强等特点,陆地化学风化强烈,气候炎热极端;在相对海平面适中时发育局限-蒸发台地,沉积环境和邻近陆地的特征介于前述二者之间。沉积相演化对应的较长周期的海陆演化可能主要受全球海平面升降及宏观气候变化控制,具体表现为相对海平面升降所导致的海相沉积环境的变化,以及气候变化引起的陆地化学风化强度的变化。寒武纪塔西台地所处区域的海洋-陆地演化具有高度耦合的特征。     

矿床成矿系列——五论矿床的成矿系列问题

矿床的成矿系列(简称成矿系列)是矿床学领域的一个理论性概念,由五级序次组成。矿床成矿系列是成矿系列的第二序次,是成矿系列的核心部分。矿床成矿系列的划分,以岩浆、沉积、变质、表生和流体(非岩浆-非变质成因流体)5种成矿作用为基本原则,以成矿地质环境为基础,结合成矿的时段与形成的矿床组合进行划分。本文对矿床成矿系列时空范围、时空组成结构、矿化强度与演化、成矿区带内不同矿床成矿系列之间的演化、叠加和复合作用及对指导找矿的意义进行了论述。     

Tracing the source of metals in Geogas from metal deposits in a loess-covered region北大核心CSCD

In order to test the distribution characteristics of metallogenic elements and the application effectiveness of the traee elements and REE for tracing the source of Geogas anomaly, the distribution characteristics of metallogenetic elements .trace elements and REE in different media of the Jiaolongzhang Pb-Zn deposit underneath the loess have been studied in this paper. Results indicate that the distribution characteristics of Geogas anomalous elements over the concealed orebodies are coincided with those of the enriched elements of ores, while the distribution characteristics of trace elements and REE in background Geogas samples are distinctly different from those of other media, indicating that the source of background Geogas materials is influenced by various factors( geological bodies, lab environment and blank reagent). The similar distribution characteristics of the trace elements in the Geogas samples of anomalous areas and in the ores suggested that Geogas anomaly is affected by concealed orebodies in depth. The difference between REE patterns of the Geogas samples of the anomalous area and those of other solid media might be caused by inadequate analytical precision and low collecting efficiency of the instrument. It is believed that the REE tracing method can provide the information on the source of Geogas anomaly if the analytical precision and collecting efficiency of REE could be constantly increased.