Impacts of 21st century climate change on global air pollution-related premature mortality

Climate change modulates surface concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) and ozone (O₃), indirectly affecting premature mortality attributed to air pollution. We estimate the change in global premature mortality and years of life lost (YLL) associated with changes in surface O₃ and PM_2.5 over the 21st century as a result of climate change. We use a global coupled chemistry-climate model to simulate current and future climate and the effect of changing climate on air quality. Epidemiological concentration-response relationships are applied to estimate resulting changes in premature mortality and YLL. The effect of climate change on air quality is isolated by holding emissions of air pollutants constant while allowing climate to evolve over the 21st century according to a moderate projection of greenhouse gas emissions (A1B scenario). Resulting changes in 21st century climate alone lead to an increase in simulated PM_2.5 concentrations globally, and to higher (lower) O₃ concentrations over populated (remote) regions. Global annual premature mortality associated with chronic exposure to PM_2.5 increases by approximately 100 thousand deaths (95 % confidence interval, CI, of 66–130 thousand) with corresponding YLL increasing by nearly 900 thousand (95 % CI, 576–1,128 thousand) years. The annual premature mortality due to respiratory disease associated with chronic O₃ exposure increases by +6,300 deaths (95 % CI, 1,600–10,400). This climate penalty indicates that stronger emission controls will be needed in the future to meet current air quality standards and to avoid higher health risks associated with climate change induced worsening of air quality over populated regions.     

Re-testing the JET-X Flight Module No. 2 at the PANTER facility

The Joint European X-ray Telescope (JET-X) was the core instrument of the Russian Spectrum-X- γ space observatory. It consisted of two identical soft X-ray (0.3–10 keV) telescopes with focusing optical modules having a measured angular resolution of nearly 15 arcsec. Soon after the payload completion, the mission was cancelled and the two optical flight modules (FM) were brought to the Brera Astronomical Observatory where they had been manufactured. After 16 years of storage, we have utilized the JET-X FM2 to test at the PANTER X-ray facility a prototype of a novel X-ray polarimetric telescope, using a Gas Pixel Detector (GPD) with polarimetric capabilities in the focal plane of the FM2. The GPD was developed by a collaboration between INFN-Pisa and INAF-IAPS. In the first phase of the test campaign, we have re-tested the FM2 at PANTER to have an up-to-date characterization in terms of angular resolution and effective area, while in the second part of the test the GPD has been placed in the focal plane of the FM2. In this paper we report the results of the tests of the sole FM2, using an unpolarized X-ray source, comparing the results with the calibration done in 1996.     

DENIS: A deep near-infrared survey of the southern sky

The DENIS project is the first attempt to carry out a complete digitized survey of the southern sky in the range 1–2.5µm. The main objectives of the programme and the main specifications of the camera and of the data processing stream are briefly outlined     

Evidence for cospatial optical and radio polarized emission in active galactic nuclei

We investigate the relationship between the optical and radio emission of active galactic nuclei (AGN) by analysing optical and 15+22+43 GHz Very Long Baseline Array (VLBA) polarization observations simultaneous to within a day for 11 BL Lacertae (BL Lac) objects and the blazar 3C279. We have determined and corrected for the Faraday rotation measures in the very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) cores, enabling us to compare the intrinsic (zero-wavelength) VLBI-core polarization angles and the optical polarization angles χ_opt. A clear alignment between these two angles emerges in the transition toward higher radio frequencies, and a prominent peak at 0° is visible in the distribution of |χ_opt−χ_43 GHz|. This correlation implies that the magnetic-field orientations in the regions giving rise to the optical and radio polarization are the same, and can be easily understood if the radio and optical polarization are roughly cospatial. It is difficult to rule out the possibility that they arise in different regions in a straight jet with a uniform magnetic-field structure, but this seems less likely, since the VLBI jets of AGN are often bent on parsec-scales. This may suggest that much or all of the strong optical polarization in these sources arises in the inner radio jets, possibly associated with the formation and emergence of compact new VLBI components.     

Fish-Habitat Relationships Along the Estuarine Gradient of the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta,California: Implications for Habitat Restoration

Estuaries are highly variable environments where fish are subjected to a diverse suite of habitat features (e.g., water quality gradients, physical structure) that filter local assemblages from a broader, regional species pool. Tidal, climatological, and oceanographic phenomena drive water quality gradients and, ultimately, expose individuals to other habitat features (e.g., stationary physical or biological elements, such as bathymetry or vegetation). Relationships between fish abundances, water quality gradients, and other habitat features in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta were examined as a case example to learn how habitat features serve as filters to structure local assemblages in large river-dominated estuaries. Fish communities were sampled in four tidal lakes along the estuarine gradient during summer-fall 2010 and 2011 and relationships with habitat features explored using ordination and generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs). Based on ordination results, landscape-level gradients in salinity, turbidity, and elevation were associated with distinct fish assemblages among tidal lakes. Native fishes were associated with increased salinity and turbidity, and decreased elevation. Within tidal lakes, GLMM results demonstrated that submersed aquatic vegetation density was the dominant driver of individual fish species densities. Both native and non-native species were associated with submersed aquatic vegetation, although native and non-native fish populations only minimally overlapped. These results help to provide a framework for predicting fish species assemblages in novel or changing habitats as they indicate that species assemblages are driven by a combination of location within the estuarine gradient and site-specific habitat features.     

Effectiveness of different types of block ramps for fish upstream movement

Rivers are worldwide highly fragmented due to human impacts. This fragmentation has a negative effect on fish movement and dispersal. Many artificial barriers such as river bed sills and small weirs are nowadays replaced by block ramps in order to reestablish longitudinal connectivity for fish in rivers and streams. We studied the upstream passage of several fish species on different types of block ramps with slopes between 3.6 and 13.4 %. We conducted translocation experiments in the field based on mark-recapture and on the use of PIT-tags. Temporal movement patterns were observed by an instream antenna. Hydraulic and morphological characteristics of block ramps were measured and compared with fish passage efficiency. Our results clearly showed that upstream passage efficiency differs between fish species, size classes and block ramps. We observed that brown trout (Salmo trutta fario) performed better than bullhead (Cottus gobio) and several cyprinid species on the same block ramps. Passage efficiency of brown trout and chub (Leuciscus cephalus) was size-selective, with small-sized individuals being less successful. For brown trout, size-selectivity became more relevant with increasing slope of ramp. We conclude that block ramps with slopes of >5 % are ineffective for the small-sized cyprinid species and that vertical drops within step-pool ramps can hinder successful upstream passage of bullhead.     

Gender Differences in Chronic Exposure to Traffic-Related Air Pollution—A Simulation Study of Working Females and Males

The objective of this study was to identify spatial variability in exposure to outdoor traffic-related air pollution with specific emphasis on comparing exposure estimates for working females and males across a metropolitan area. A spatial exposure simulation model was used to estimate annual average exposure to traffic-related nitrogen dioxide for males and females reporting regular work in census tracts other than that of their residence, in Vancouver, British Columbia. The model produced estimates of annual average exposure in six microenvironments (home indoor, work indoor, other indoor, outdoor, in-vehicle to work, and in-vehicle other) using time-activity patterns and work flow data, for males and females in each of 382 census tracts. This allowed for the identification of spatial variations in exposure estimates for each gender, due to mobility within the study region. Indoor sources of nitrogen dioxide were not included in the simulation. No significant differences in estimated total exposure were found between working females and males in general. Small but observable spatial differences, however, were found between working females and males at the 90th percentile of the exposure distributions associated specifically with the work indoor microenvironment. These were highest in suburban areas (+3 μ g/m³ for females, relative to total exposures in the range of 26 to 37 μ g/m³ annual average hourly nitrogen dioxide). These results identify specific geographic locations in the study area where personal monitoring studies might be warranted and suggest that the inclusion of workplace locations in multivariate modeling could be useful to further understand differences in estimated exposures.     

Pattern and timing of the northwestern Barents Sea Ice Sheet deglaciation and indications of episodic Holocene deposition

The origin of two acoustic sediment units has been studied based on lithological facies, chronology and benthic stable isotope values as well as on foraminifera and clay mineral assemblages in six marine sediment cores from Kveithola, a small trough west of Spitsbergenbanken on the western Barents Sea margin. We have identified four time slices with characteristic sedimentary environments. Before c. 14.2 cal. ka, rhythmically laminated muds indicate extensive sea ice cover in the area. From c. 13.9 to 14.2 cal. ka, muds rich in ice‐rafted debris were deposited during the disintegration of grounded ice on Spitsbergenbanken. From c. 10.3 to 13.1 cal. ka, sediments with heterogeneous lithologies suggest a shifting influence of suspension settling and iceberg rafting, probably derived from a decaying Barents Sea Ice Sheet in the inner‐fjord and land areas to the north of Kveithola. Holocene deposition was episodic and characterized by the deposition of calcareous sands and shell debris, indicative of strong bottom currents. We speculate that a marked erosional boundary at c. 8.2 cal. ka may have been caused by the Storegga tsunami. Whilst deposition was sparse during the Holocene, Kveithola acted as a sediment trap during the preceding deglaciation. Investigation of the deglacial sediments provides unprecedented details on the dynamics and timing of glacial retreat from Spitsbergenbanken.     

Ratio of the Core to the Extended Emissions in the Comoving Frame for Blazars

In a two-component jet model, the emissions are the sum of the core and extended emissions: \(S^{\mathrm{ob}}=S_{\mathrm{core}}^{\mathrm{ob}}+S_{\mathrm{ext}}^{\mathrm{ob}}\), with the core emissions, \(S_{\mathrm{core}}^{\mathrm{ob}}= f S_{\mathrm{ext}}^{\mathrm{ob}}\delta ^{q}\) being a function of the Doppler factor \(\delta \), the extended emission \(S_{\mathrm{ext}}^{\mathrm{ob}}\), the jet type dependent factor q, and the ratio of the core to the extended emissions in the comoving frame, f. The f is an unobservable but important parameter. Following our previous work, we collect 65 blazars with available Doppler factor \(\delta \), superluminal velocity \(\beta _{\mathrm{app}}\), and core-dominance parameter, R, and calculated the ratio, f, and performed statistical analyses. We found that the ratio, f, in BL Lacs is on average larger than that in FSRQs. We suggest that the difference of the ratio f between FSRQs and BL Lacs is one of the possible reasons that cause the difference of other observed properties between them. We also find some significant correlations between \(\log f\) and other parameters, including intrinsic (de-beamed) peak frequency, \(\log \nu _{\mathrm{p}}^{\mathrm{in}}\), intrinsic polarization, \(\log P^{\mathrm{in}}\), and core-dominance parameter, \(\log R\), for the whole sample. In addition, we show that the ratio, f, can be estimated by R.     

Potential climate-change impacts on the Chesapeake Bay

We review current understanding of the potential impact of climate change on the Chesapeake Bay. Scenarios for CO₂ emissions indicate that by the end of the 21^st century the Bay region will experience significant changes in climate forcings with respect to historical conditions, including increases in CO₂ concentrations, sea level, and water temperature of 50–160%, 0.7–1.6 m, and 2–6 °C, respectively. Also likely are increases in precipitation amount (very likely in the winter and spring), precipitation intensity, intensity of tropical and extratropical cyclones (though their frequency may decrease), and sea-level variability. The greatest uncertainty is associated with changes in annual streamflow, though it is likely that winter and spring flows will increase. Climate change alone will cause the Bay to function very differently in the future. Likely changes include: (1) an increase in coastal flooding and submergence of estuarine wetlands; (2) an increase in salinity variability on many time scales; (3) an increase in harmful algae; (4) an increase in hypoxia; (5) a reduction of eelgrass, the dominant submerged aquatic vegetation in the Bay; and (6) altered interactions among trophic levels, with subtropical fish and shellfish species ultimately being favored in the Bay. The magnitude of these changes is sensitive to the CO₂ emission trajectory, so that actions taken now to reduce CO₂ emissions will reduce climate impacts on the Bay. Research needs include improved precipitation and streamflow projections for the Bay watershed and whole-system monitoring, modeling, and process studies that can capture the likely non-linear responses of the Chesapeake Bay system to climate variability, climate change, and their interaction with other anthropogenic stressors.