Wind and freshwater influence over hydrocarbon dispersal on Patos Lagoon, Brazil

The two-dimensional barotropic, hydrodynamic and transport model MOHID is applied to the Patos Lagoon system using a nested modelling approach to reproduce both the lagoon and estuary hydrodynamics. A new Lagrangian oil spill model is presented and used to simulate a hypothetical oil spill in the estuary. Hydrodynamic fields are validated and used to force the oil model. Results show that the hydrodynamics of this system is mainly controlled by the wind and freshwater discharge. The dispersion, concentration and thickness evolution of the oil in the first day after the spill is determined by the equilibrium between these two factors. The freshwater discharge is the major factor controlling the oil dispersion for discharges greater than 5000 m3 while the wind assumes control for lower discharge amounts. The results presented are a first step toward a coastal management tool for the Patos Lagoon.     

An assessment of an oil spill in Gladstone, Australia - impacts on intertidal areas at one month post-spill

In January 2006, 25 tonnes of heavy fuel oil spilled into the Port of Gladstone in Queensland, Australia, from the breached hull of a bulk carrier ship. Over the following days, approximately 18 tonnes of the oil was recovered, however a certain amount of oil was deposited in the intertidal areas of Port Curtis leaving a highly visible, viscous residue. The objectives of this research were to assess the immediate impacts on the intertidal habitat and to gain baseline information for future comparative assessments. Sediment PAH and metal concentrations, mangrove communities and intertidal macroinvertebrates were assessed within one month post-spill at oil-impacted sites; adjacent sites which were not visibly impacted; and reference sites which were located outside the recorded distribution of the oil spill. Highest PAH concentrations were found at the impacted sites, with concentrations of some PAHs exceeding Australian and New Zealand Sediment Quality Guidelines (ANZECC/ARMCANZ, 2000). These sites contained very few or no crab holes in the high intertidal area, indicating a low crab density in comparison to reference sites. Little immediate impact was evident on the mangrove and macrobenthic communities, however future surveys may show evidence of longer-term impacts on these communities.     

应用单台垂向记录进行区域地震事件实时检测和直达犘波初动自动识别

提出一种基于直达P波信号和其它背景噪声在能量、非高斯性、非线性和偏振特性的不同而进行区域地震事件实时检测的新方法信噪综合差异特征量方法（简写为EFGLP方法）,同时对比分析了应用信号的不同统计特性来精细识别震相初至的３种有效方法,其中的TOC AIC方法是新提出的．应用山东数字地震波资料处理的结果表明:①与常规的STA/LTA地震事件触发算法相比,EFGLP方法能够有效降低地震事件的错误报警率和漏报率;②与人机交互震相识别结果相比,当信噪比比较低、震相初至比较模糊时,3种震相精细识别方法中的TOC-AIC方法识别精度最高;当信噪比比较高、震相初至比较清晰时,基于VAR-AIC 和TOC-AIC方法所测量得到的震相初至识别基本一致．      

PI算法用于川滇-安达曼-苏门答腊地区7.0级以上强震危险性预测的回溯性检验

作为一个中长期地震预测方法,基于复杂系统统计物理的图象信息学PI算法近年来广受关注．针对7级以上强震成组和突发交替的川滇地区,考虑将与其构造和地震活动关系密切,且强震频发的安达曼-苏门答腊地区作为统一的强震预测研究区,使用PI算法进行MW7.0及以上预测ldquo;目标震级rdquo;的地震危险性分析．计算中使用了1973年以来的NEIC目录,采用10年尺度的地震活动ldquo;异常学习rdquo;时段和3年尺度ldquo;预测时间窗rdquo;,对预测效果进行了ROC检验．回溯性研究显示,PI预测效果较好,表明将川滇-安达曼-苏门答腊地区作为统一的7以上强震PI预测研究区在统计上具有合理性．从统计物理角度,研究区组合前后的各态遍历性曲线显示,组合后的研究区对PI的适用程度虽不优于单独考虑川滇地区,但优于安达曼-苏门答腊地区．PI图象显示,2008震前可能存在中长期尺度的ldquo;前兆性rdquo;地震活动异常．      

2007年苏门答腊8．5级、8．3级地震强余震库仑破裂应力触发研究

2007年9月12日印尼苏门答腊发生了8.5级地震,9月13日其西北边又发生了8.3级地震,震后在附近还发生了一系列6级以上强震。该文依次计算了苏门答腊8.5级地震后各次地震前其所在主破裂面的库仑破裂应力变化。结果表明,2007年苏门答腊8.5级地震的后续强震都发生在库仑破裂应力显著增加区,其应力变化值均大于0.01 MPa,即后续强震可能都是被触发的。     

Progress in studies on the structure and physical properties of the mantle in China

The studies on the structure and physical properties of the mantle by Chinese geophysicists from 2003 to 2007 are reviewed in this report. It mainly contains studies on the seismic velocity structure of the mantle,anisotropy of the mantle,mantle discontinuities,mantle convection and the physical properties of mantle. The review concerns mainly the contents,the methods used and the results of the studies. It can be found that new progress in the study on the structure and physical properties of mantle has been made in the last four years in China. In some preexis-tent areas much progress has been made,advanced methods have been adopted,extensive international co-operation has been conducted in many ways,and the scope of the co-operation has gradually expanded. More-over,some new fields appear as well.     

与地震活动相关的电磁扰动的空间观测

介绍了地震附近甚低频（VLF）电磁波信号强度统计分析结果。统计数据全部来自法国的DEMETER卫星（轨道高度700km,近太阳同步轨道）,处理中采用了稳健的两步处理方法。第一步,利用所有的观测数据构建电磁辐射背景图,在给定条件和给定轨道位置对电场波动强度进行了统计描述。第二步,在第一步得到的电场波动强度的统计分布背景基础上,对地震附近的观测数据进行分析,研究由地震活动引起的电场波动强度的变化,评估它们在统计上的显著性。在整个分析过程中,我们总计使用了大于两年半的卫星观测数据,并对在此期间全球范围内发生的大约9000个震级大于或等于4．8的地震进行了统计分析。统计结果显示,在夜间时段,对于浅源地震（震源深度小于或等于40km）,在震前0～4小时的短时间内,电场波动强度会有4～6dB的显著降低。     

The overlooked role of the ocean in mercury cycling in the Arctic

The rapid and high bioaccumulation of mercury in marine mammals and its spatial and temporal variations have been a major puzzle in the Arctic. While extensive efforts have been focussed on the monitoring and chemistry of atmospheric mercury depletion events, a recent mass budget estimate of mercury in the Arctic suggests that we have overlooked the role of the ocean itself. Only through focussed studies on Hg dynamics in the Arctic Ocean under a changing climate are we going to understand what the risk of mercury is to those marine ecosystems and the people who rely on them.     

地球内部结构及物性研究的进展及问题

本文对近几年中国地球物理学家在地球内部结构和物质性质方面的研究工作进行总结.从地球内部结构的地震波速度成像,地幔介质的各向异性,地幔间断面及地幔介质物性进行了综述,指出在一些原有的研究领域,工作更加深入,方法更加先进,而且进行了广泛的国际合作,合作的范围也逐渐扩大,方式多样,并开拓了一些新的研究方向.在肯定我们近几年取得的一些新的进展的同时,也提出了地球内部结构研究中应进一步研究的问题.     

沈阳市供水系统抗震功能可靠性分析

城市供水管网的抗震研究能够服务于供水管网的规划、设计和改造。以沈阳市供水管网系统为背景,介绍了一类求解大型供水网络节点及系统功能可靠度的方法。对沈阳市主干供水网络进行了抗震功能可靠性分析。研究结果证明,建议方法是合理评价供水管网地震后工作性能的工具,可以为大型供水管网的抗震可靠度分析及抗震设计服务提供基础。