Flux-dominated solar dynamo model with a thin shear layer

Flux-dominated solar dynamo models have demonstrated to reproduce the main features of the large scale solar magnetic cycle, however the use of a solar like differential rotation profile implies in the the formation of strong toroidal magnetic fields at high latitudes where they are not observed. In this work, we invoke the hypothesis of a thin-width tachocline in order to confine the high-latitude toroidal magnetic fields to a small area below the overshoot layer, thus avoiding its influence on a Babcock-Leighton type dynamo process. Our results favor a dynamo operating inside the convection zone with a tachocline that essentially works as a storage region when it coincides with the overshoot layer. (© 2007 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Multi-Scale Analysis of the Geomagnetic Symmetric Index (sym)

In this work we present a methodology to estimate the geomagnetic symmetric index (Sym) based on the wavelet analysis of the time series of the H component of the geomagnetic field measured at mid-latitude stations localized at Kakioka (KAK), Honolulu (HON), Hermanus (HER) and San Juan (SJG). A case study of the intense geomagnetic storm of 17–22 February 1999, caused by intense southward magnetic fields just behind an interplanetary shock driven by a magnetic cloud, is shown as an example of the procedure of derivation of the symmetric index and the capabilities of this analysis to improve the study of the coupling of the solar wind and the Earth's magnetosphere. Other examples are shown in order to demonstrate the applicability of the methodology to different magnetospheric conditions. It is shown that the long period variations of the symmetric index are linearly correlated to variations at the same periods of the H component of the geomagnetic field and that the contribution of short period variations to the symmetric index are biased by localized current systems such as the partial ring current and the field aligned currents.     

Comparison Between Halo cme Expansion Speeds Observed on the Sun,the Related Shock Transit Speeds to Earth and Corresponding Ejecta Speeds at 1 au

We have compared characteristics of 38 halo coronal mass ejections observed on the Sun by the Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph onboard SOHO with their corresponding counterparts observed near Earth by the magnetic field and plasma instruments onboard the ACE, WIND and SOHO satellites, in the period from January 1997 to April 2001. We only have selected events that have some associated interplanetary ejecta structure at 1 AU and we have compared the lateral expansion speeds of these halo CMEs and the corresponding ejecta speeds near Earth. We found that there is a high correlation between these two speeds. The results are very similar to the study done by Lindsay et al. (1999) using observations made by Solwind and SMM coronagraphs, and Helios-1 and PVO plasma and interplanetary field data from the period of 1979 to 1988. Also, we reviewed the relation between the CME-related shock transit speed to Earth and the ejecta speeds near Earth. This kind of relation is very important to estimate ejecta speeds of events for which no interplanetary observations are available.     

Selection criteria for linear regression models to estimate individual tree biomasses in the Atlantic Rain Forest,Brazil

Background

Biomass models are useful for several purposes, especially for quantifying carbon stocks and dynamics in forests. Selecting appropriate equations from a fitted model is a process which can involves several criteria, some widely used and others used to a lesser extent. This study analyzes six selection criteria for models fitted to six sets of individual biomass collected from woody indigenous species of the Tropical Atlantic Rain Forest in Brazil. Six models were examined and the respective fitted equations evaluated by the residual sum of squares, adjusted coefficient of determination, absolute and relative estimates of the standard error of estimate, and Akaike and Schwartz (Bayesian) information criteria. The aim of this study was to analyze the numeric behavior of these model selection criteria and discuss the ease of interpretation of them. The importance of residual analysis in model selection is stressed.

Results

The adjusted coefficient of determination (\( R^{2}_{adj.} \)) and the standard error of estimate in percentage (Syx%) are relative model selection criteria and are not affected by sample size and scale of the response variable. The sum of squared residuals (SSR), the absolute standard error of estimate (Syx), the Akaike information criterion and the Schwartz information criterion, in turn, depend on these quantities. The best fit model was always the same within a given data set regardless the model selection criteria considered (except for SSR in two cases), indicating they tend to converge to a common result. However, such criteria are not always closely related across different data sets. General model selection criteria are indicative of the average goodness of fit, but do not capture bias and outlier effects. Graphical residual analysis is a useful tool to this detection and must always be used in model selection.

Conclusions

It is concluded that the criteria for model selection tend to lead to a common result, regardless their mathematical formulation and statistical significance. Relative measures of goodness of fitting are easier to interpret than the absolute ones. Careful graphical residual analysis must always be used to confirm the performance of the models.

     

Availability and use of willow species in representative cold desert areas of northwestern himalaya, India

Willow species(Salix fragilis L.and S.alba L.) are important elements of cold desert agroforestry systems in the Lahaul valley,northwestern Himalaya.Their ability to grow through shoot-cuttings plantations under extreme and xeric climatic conditions of cold deserts,makes them ecologically suited and socially accepted for forestry programmes.Willow species in cold deserts may combat desertification and can thrive well in these areas as compared to any other species.Salix fragilis L.and S.alba L.are under cultivation in the Lahaul valley.However,S.fragilis is widely cultivated under the agroforestry and plantation forestry systems.In the Lahaul valley,willow species are used as subsistence resources and for socio-religious purposes.The present study was carried out to examine the vegetation analysis,density,diversity and distribution of willow species,present status and potential willow plantation sites and uses.The results of present study revealed that a higher species density was recorded at middle altitude villages(Jahlma-3,000 m asl and Hinsa-2,700 m asl),except,a higher density of S.fragilis was at Khoksar(3,200 m asl) in plantation forestry on south-facing slopes.In forests,S.fragilis was planted mainly along the water channels,resulted a low density.The shrubby willow species occurred naturally in the entire Lahaul valley up to an altitude of 3,850 m asl.81% of households felt the scarcity of willow trees,whereas,19% of households were satisfied with the willow trees they owned.The majority of willow species were planted in middle altitudes on privately owned irrigated lands.It was rated most potential prospective willow planting site by the farmers.Small size of land-holdings was one of the main constraints for establishing a large number of willow plantations.Commercial aspects of willow species need to be investigated to encourage the farmers to plant more willows further.     

Ecological status and uses of juniper species in the cold desert environment of the Lahaul valley, North-western Himalaya, India

The juniper species Juniperus polycarpos C. Koch, J. indica Bertol. and J. communis L. var. saxatilis (Pallas) are important elements of the forest vegetation in Lahaul valley in the north-western Himalaya. Their ability to grow under the barren and xeric conditions of cold deserts makes them particularly suited for afforestation programmes under these ecological conditions. In the Lahaul valley, juniper species are used as subsistence resources and for religious purposes. Excessive removal of juniper wood and leaves by the local population, overgrazing, habitat fragmentation and low regeneration potential are the main obstacles to conservation of juniper forests in this region. The present study was carried out to assess density, basal area and importance value index (IVI) of the local vegetation as well as uses and amounts of juniper wood and leaves removed from the local forests. Pressure on relict juniper forests due to grazing animals and intensive removal of wood and leaves by the local population was found to be greater at an altitude above 3,000 m. The results of the study demonstrated that the different juniper species were adapted to specific altitude ranges. A higher species density was recorded at lower altitude except for J. indica which was only present at high altitude (>3,200 m) on south-facing slopes. Density, basal area and IVI of J. polycarpos were higher at Hinsa (2,700 m) than at Jahlma (3,000 m). The rapid loss of vegetation due to overuse and habitat degradation has made the conservation of juniper forests an important priority in the Lahaul valley. J. polycarpos at lower altitude and J. indica at higher altitude are ecologically the more suitable species for the successful implementation of conservation programmes. The support of rehabilitation programmes by regional authorities is essential for the reestablishment of the local juniper forests.     

From discrete to continuum modelling of boundary value problems in geomechanics: An integrated FEM-DEM approach

Double-scale numerical methods constitute an effective tool for simultaneously representing the complex nature of geomaterials and treating real-scale engineering problems such as a tunnel excavation or a pressuremetre at a reasonable numerical cost. This paper presents an approach coupling discrete elements (DEM) at the microscale with finite elements (FEM) at the macroscale. In this approach, a DEM-based numerical constitutive law is embedded into a standard FEM formulation. In this regard, an exhaustive discussion is presented on how a 2D/3D granular assembly can be used to generate, step by step along the overall computation process, a consistent Numerically Homogenised Law. The paper also focuses on some recent developments including a comprehensive discussion of the efficiency of Newton-like operators, the introduction of a regularisation technique at the macroscale by means of a second gradient framework, and the development of parallelisation techniques to alleviate the computational cost of the proposed approach. Some real-scale problems taking into account the material spatial variability are illustrated, proving the numerical efficiency of the proposed approach and the benefit of a particle-based strategy.     

Mapping the vulnerability for evacuation of the Campi Flegrei territorial system in case of a volcanic unrest

Over the past few decades, intense urban expansion has occurred over the Campi Flegrei territorial system without considering the volcanic risk. In this active volcanic area, where a short period evacuation could be necessary, the emergency management cannot be based solely on hazard-related information. The territorial and social features must also be considered. In this framework, the main purpose of this research is to point out the seriousness of the present setting of the Campi Flegrei territorial system in case an evacuation is necessary. Following the concept of regional evacuation, the zone to be involved in emergency planning was identified as the whole of the area threatened by the volcanic events of the past 10?ka. Inside this area the spatial relation between the resident distribution and the outflows of roads, railway stations and harbours, to facilitate evacuation, was investigated. A spatial relational GIS-based procedure was used to draw the territorial system vulnerability map, depicting the zones with different capabilities to support the evacuation of residents in case of volcanic activity. Based on the concept that people could leave the dangerous area by the means of transport supplied by Civil Protection, and using the threshold value of over-crowding of 0.70 people/m², we identified the collection areas for residents to be immediately evacuated in case of volcanic unrest, and five macrozones displaying different capabilities to cope with an emergency phase.