Rating curve uncertainty and change detection in discharge time series: case study with 44‐year historic data from the Nyangores River,Kenya

The intersection of the developing topic of rating curve and discharge series uncertainty with the topic of hydrological change detection (e.g., in response to land cover or climatic change) has not yet been well studied. The work herein explores this intersection, with consideration of a long‐term discharge response (1964–2007) for a ~650‐km² headwater basin of the Mara River in west Kenya, starting with stream rating and daily gauge height data. A rating model was calibrated using Bayesian methods to quantify uncertainty intervals in model parameters and predictions. There was an unknown balance of random and systemic error in rating data scatter (a scenario not likely unique to this basin), which led to an unknown balance of noise and information in the calibrated statistical error model. This had implications on testing for hydrological change. Overall, indications were that shifts in basin's discharge response were rather subtle over the 44‐year period. A null hypothesis for change using flow duration curves (FDCs) from four different 8‐year data intervals could be either accepted or rejected over much of the net flow domain depending on different applications of the statistical error model (each with precedence in the literature). The only unambiguous indication of change in FDC comparisons appeared to be a reduction in lowest baseflow in recent years (flows with >98% exceedance probability). We defined a subjective uncertainty interval based on an intermediate balance of random and systematic error in the rating model that suggested a possibility of more prevalent impacts. These results have relevance to management in the Mara basin and to future studies that might establish linkages to historic land use and climatic factors. The concern about uncertain uncertainty intervals (uncertainty²) extends beyond the Mara and is relevant to testing change where non‐random rating errors may be important and subtle responses are investigated. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Use of stream response functions to determine impacts of replacing surface-water use with groundwater withdrawals

A regional-scale numerical groundwater model is used to study the impacts of replacing surface-water use with groundwater wells to improve low-flow stream conditions for endangered species within the Bertrand and Fishtrap watersheds, southern British Columbia, Canada and Washington, USA. Stream response functions ranging from 0 to 1.0 were calculated for individual wells placed within a steady-state groundwater flow model at varying distances from the streams to determine the impact that these replacement wells, operating under sustained pumping rates, would have on summer instream flows. Lower response ratios indicate groundwater pumping will have less of an impact on streamflow than taking an equivalent amount of water directly from a surface-water source. Results show that replacing surface-water use with groundwater withdrawals may be a viable alternative for increasing summer streamflows. Assuming combined response factors should be ≤0.5 for irrigators to undergo the expense of installing new wells, ~57% of the land area within 0.8 km of Bertrand Creek would be suitable for replacement wells. Similarly, 70% of the land area within 0.8 km of Fishtrap Creek was found to be appropriate. A visual analysis tool was developed using STELLA to allow stakeholders to quickly evaluate the impact associated with moving their water right.     

Concepts for reference frames in geodesy and geodynamics: The reference directions

Modern high accuracy measurements of the non-rigid earth are to be referred to four-dimensional, i.e., time- and space-dependent reference frames. Geodynamic phenomena derived from these measurements are to be described in a terrestrial reference frame in which both space- and time-like variations can be monitored. Existing conventional terrestrial reference frames (e.g. CIO, BIH) are no longer suitable for such purposes. The ultimate goal of this study is the establishment of a reference frame, moving with the earth in some average sense, in which the geometric and dynamic behavior of the earth can be monitored, and whose motion with respect to inertial space can also be determined. The study is conducted in several parts. In the first part problems related to reference directions are investigated, while subsequent parts deal with positions, i.e., with reference origins and scale. Only the first part is treated in this paper. The approach is based on the fact that reference directions at an observation point on the earth surface are defined by fundamental vectors (gravity, earth rotation, etc.), both space and time variant. These reference directions are interrelated by angular parameters, also derived from the fundamental vectors. The interrelationships between these space- and time-variant angular parameters are illustrated in a commutative diagram, tower of triads, which makes the derivation of the various relationships convenient. In order to determine the above parameters from observations using least squares techniques, a model tower of triads is also presented to allow the formation of linear observation equations. Although the model tower is also space and time variant, its variations are described by adopted parameters representing our current knowledge of the earth.     

The mineral composition of the Napolitan yellow tuff

Zusammenfassung Der gelbe neapolitanische Tuff scheidet sich auffallend von den übrigen Formationen der mächtigen quartären, vulkanischen Lagerfolge von Campanien durch die Art der Umwandlung, die die Glassubstanz des Tuffs erlitten hat. Diese Umwandlung ist durch folgende Merkmale charakterisiert: 1. nur das vulkanische Glas ist dabei angegriffen worden; 2. starke Anreicherung und Oxydation des Eisens und 3. starke Zeolithbildung.Die Hauptminerale der Tonfraktion sind Herschelit, Montmorillonit und ein dem Hydrobiotit nahestehendes Tonmineral. Die Bildungsweise scheint prinzipiell ähnlicher Art wie die Palagonitisierung der Sideromelane gewesen zu sein, d. h. Zersetzung von glühheißem vulkanischem Glas durch hydrochemische Reaktionen.     

Die fazielle und paläogeographische Entwicklung im Perm der Karnischen Alpen und in den Randgebieten

Zusammenfassung Im Unterperm bildet sich mit den küstennahen Innenschelf-Sedimenten der Unteren Pseudoschwagerinen-Kalke (UPK) und über der klastischen Fazies der im hochenergetischen Intertidal-Subtidal-Grenzbereich entstandenen Grenzlandbänke (GB) die Karbonatplattform der Oberen Pseudoschwagerinen-Kalke (OPK) heraus. Ökologische Zonenfolgen, die eine zunehmende Verschiebung zu küstenferneren Bereichen anzeigen, weisen die OPK als Ablagerungen des subtidalen Außenschelf-Bereiches aus.Verschieden alte Schelfrandriffe (Karnische Alpen, Sextener Dolomiten) und die Klastischen Trogkofelschichten als Innenschelfentwicklung im E und SE setzen die Entwicklung der Plattform in der Trogkofelstufe fort.Bodenunruhen mit Brekzienbildungen in den Klastischen Trogkofelschichten gipfeln in einem Zerbrechen der Karbonatplattform an der Wende Unter/Mittelperm und führen zur Ablagerung der Tarviser Brekzie in lokalen Senken.Mit den im W zunächst noch kontinentalen, in den Karnischen Alpen und Westkarawanken aber überwiegend marinen Grödener Schichten und den bei fortschreitender Transgression abgelagerten Bellerophonschichten setzt der alpidische Sedimentationszyklus ein.

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Paleontological and sedimentological data of Permian rocks from the Carnic Alps and its neighbouring areas south of the Periadriatic Lineament could fit to the following paleogeographical patterns:The Untere Pseudoschwagerinen-Kalke (UPK) of the Rattendorfer Schichten were cyclically deposited in the inner-shelf area. During the upper UPK erosive activities and source areas of the clastics were changing. Increasing sedimentation of clastics due to the temporary erosion of metamorphic rocks and acid plutonites characterizes the Grenzland-Bänke (GB), deposited in a near-shore high-energy environment with intertidal to subtidal conditions (mega-ripples). The outer shelf sedimentation pattern of the Obere Pseudoschwagerinen-Kalke (OPK) is indicated by special associations of organisms in subtidal offshore areas.On this carbonate platform some knoll reefs of different age were built up during the Trogkofel stage (Carnic Alps, Sextener Dolomiten). Towards the east and southeast the platform shows again characteristics of the inner shelf (Klastische Trogkofel-Schichten).Synsedimentary tectonic activities during the late Lower Permian are manifested by the carbonate breccias of the Klastische Trogkofel-Schichten (Garnie Alps, Karawanken, Slovenia). The components of these breccias are dated as Middle Carboniferous to late Lower Permian. A further destruction of the platform at the Lower/Middle Permian boundary results in the sedimentation of the Tarviser Brekzie.The alpidic cycle Starts with the sedimentation of the clastic Grödener Schichten which during the first phase of sedimentation were deposited as continental clastics in South Tyrol but as predominately marine sediments in the Carnic Alps and in the Karawanken.The increasing transgression during the Upper Permian results in the deposition of bituminous sediments and basal evaporites of the Bellerophon-Schichten. In the south-western near-coast area the evaporites are dominating (facies fiammaza) whereas in northeastern South Tyrol gypsum with open marine carbonates prevails (facies badiotica). The Bellerophon-Schichten of the Carnic Alps indicate connections with the marine Zazar-Schichten in the Save area and with the limestones and dolomites of the Velebit mountains.

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Résumé L'étude paléontologique et sédimentologique du Permien des Alpes carniques et des régions septentrionales, voisines du linéament périadriatique, a permis d'en tracér une equisse paléogéographique. - Les Untere Pseudoschwagerinen-Kalke (UPK) qui marquent le début des Rattendorfer Schichten, constituent une sédimentation cyclique de nature littorale, à laquelle succède, à la suite d'une activité érosive intense, les Grenzlandbänke (GB) caractérisés par un facies clastique de haute énergie, avec, dans ce dernier, des intervalles où apparaissent des roches métamorphiques et des roches plutoniques acides. Ce milieu, parcouru par des courants instables, nous indique un domaine mitoyen» subtidal-intertidal «(méga-ripples), à labase des marées. Des faunes et flores, variées et abondantes, sont distribuées dans une succession de zones écologiques de plus en plus distantes de la côte. Les Obere Pseudoschwagerinen-Kalke (OPK), déposés ensuite, se sont donc formés sur le plateau continental extérieur à caractère subtidal.Sur cette plate-forme à formations carbonatées, et au cours de l'étage de Trogkofel, des récifs ont pu s'installer, tandis que l'E et le SW de la plate-forme, plus rapprochés de la côte, ont reçu une sédimentation clastique (Klastische Trogkofelschichten). — Les mouvements de la fin du Permien inférieur se sont traduits par des brèches intercalées dans les Klastische Trogkofelschichten; des fragments de roches du Carbonifère moyen (étage de Moscow) sont inclus dans ces brèches. Enfin cette tendance arrive à son comble à la limite Permien inférieur/Permien moyen, lorsque la plateforme se désintègre avec formation de la Taviser Brekzie dans des effondrements local.Le cycle de sédimentation alpin débute par les Grödener Schichten — encore terrestres à l'Ouest, mais surtout marines dans les Alpes carniques et les Karawanken occidentales — et par les Bellerophonschichten marquant une mer en transgression.

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Petrology and petrogenesis of the Mount Stuart batholith — Plutonic equivalent of the high-alumina basalt association?

The Mount Stuart batholith is a Late Cretaceous calc-alkaline pluton composed of rocks ranging in composition from two-pyroxene gabbro to granite. Quartz diorite is most abundant. This batholith may represent the plutonic counterpart of the high-alumina basalt association. A petrogenetic model is developed in which this intrusive series evolved from one batch of magnesian high-alumina basalt, represented by the oldest intrusive phase, by successive crystal fractionation of ascending residual magma. However, the possibility that this intrusive suite originated from an andésite (quartz diorite) parent by fractionation cannot be excluded.Computer modeling of this intrusive sequence provides a quantitative evaluation of the sequential change of magma composition. These calculations clearly indicate that the igneous suite is consanguineous, and that subtraction of early-formed crystals from the oldest rock is capable of reproducing the entire magma series with a remainder of 2–3% granitic liquid. This model requires that large amounts of gabbroic cumulate remain hidden at depth- an amount equal to approximately 8–10X the volume of the exposed batholith. Mass balances between the amounts of cumulate and residual liquid calculated compare favorably with the observed amounts of intermediate rocks exposed in the batholith, but not with the mafic rocks.Mafic magmas probably fractionated at depth by crystal settling, whereas younger quartz diorite and more granitic magmas underwent inward crystallization producing gradationally zoned plutons exposed at present erosional levels.